Joshua-Parker: Keys to the Fight

Boxing fans have been treated to a number of memorable fights in the first quarter of 2018 and Saturday's heavyweight unification match between British boxing superstar Anthony Joshua (20-0, 20 KOs) and New Zealand's Joseph Parker (24-0, 18 KOs) should continue the sport's winning streak. Over 75,000 fans are expected to fill Principality Stadium in Cardiff, Wales.

As a champion Joshua has been riding the wave to true superstardom. Last year he knocked out Wladimir Klitschko in almost everyone's fight of the year and he also dispatched the capable Carlos Takam in 10 rounds. Joshua features power in both hands and a strong boxing foundation. He did hit the deck against Klitschko and his chin is not his strongest attribute in the ring.

Courtesy of Esther Lin/Showtime

Although there's been a lot of excitement in boxing circles about a possible mega-fight between Joshua and American titlist Deontay Wilder, Parker will look to rewrite the existing narrative in the heavyweight division; this is his moment to shine. However, in his last fight, he was lucky to escape with a majority decision over Hughie Fury. There's no use in sugar-coating it: Parker-Fury was atrocious to watch. Fury had a lot of success back-footing Parker, who often crudely lunged in with ineffective power shots. Nevertheless, two judges preferred Parker's attempts at aggression and he was awarded the decision. 

Luckily for Parker, Joshua won't employ the same type of evasive style that Fury displayed. Joshua prefers to fight in the pocket. He likes to mix in his power shots and he'll look to land his best punch, his right uppercut; however, he needs to be in range for that to happen. Thus, Parker should have opportunities to land and trade. 

But does Parker have enough dimensions in the ring to beat Joshua or will he be outgunned by a more versatile opponent? Will Joshua continue his assault on the heavyweight division? Below are the Keys to the Fight. My prediction will be at the end of the article. 

1. Will Joshua box or fight?

Part of what makes Joshua so refreshing is that he's a heavyweight who doesn't shy away from contact. Unlike the Klitschko brothers, Joshua doesn't believe in neutralizing opponents. He wants to assert himself in the ring and dominate his opposition. He's not afraid to take a shot to land one. However, Joshua's not a brawler by any means. With a solid jab, a large arsenal of punches and athleticism, Joshua can also win rounds via fundamental boxing. 

Against Parker, Joshua will have significant size and reach advantages. He can control the outside and use his feet to get himself out of trouble. The question comes down to what kind of fight Joshua wants. If he's content to win rounds by boxing and mixing it up only sporadically, that opportunity is there for him. However, if he wants to punish Parker and blast him out of the ring, then that scenario would give Parker more options in the fight. 

2. Chins.

Joshua was dropped against Klitschko and staggered when facing Dillian Whyte. To this point in his career, Parker has displayed a good beard. His problems have come more from fatigue than from chin issues. In this fight Joshua has the flashier weapons – straight right hand, left hook and right uppercut; however, don't discount Parker's considerable power. Parker's at his best on the inside and he throws menacing shots downstairs. He may work the body as well as any current heavyweight. In addition, Parker throws a sneaky, short right to the head that often finds its mark because his foes are so conscious of protecting themselves from his body shots. 

Still, one can look at Parker's resume and not see a bona fide puncher as an opponent. Andy Ruiz is heavy-handed but lacks knockout weapons. Carlos Takam is a solid but not spectacular puncher. Although Parker's chin has held up until now, he's never faced a slugger like Joshua. Parker needs to defend himself on the inside against Joshua's uppercut and he also must be wary of Joshua's left hook from close range. On paper, Parker might have the edge in the chin department, but it might not play out that way on Saturday. 

3. Who wins on the inside? 

Joshua has many weapons on the inside, but his shots aren't as short as Parker's; they need time and space to develop. Joshua, however, is the more accurate technician. He can cause damage with any of his shots without needing sustained flurries to land something meaningful. Parker often likes to grapple on the inside. He'll use his body to push opponents around to find angles to land his best shots.  

Much of this fight will come down to Ring IQ on the inside. Joshua doesn't have to engage at close range to win while Parker has to be on the inside to be victorious. Joshua should use his legs or tie up when appropriate. For Parker, he'll need some deception when attacking (something which hasn't exactly been his forte). Rushing in with crude punches won't be enough against a fighter with Joshua's weapons. Parker is also going to have to work in the clinch whenever possible. He shouldn't be initiating clinches to take a breather; that's an area in the ring where he needs to do his best work. 

4. Fatigue. 

Both Joshua and Parker have exhibited conditioning issues throughout their respective careers. Perhaps because of their size or that so many of their developmental bouts ended with early stoppages, neither boxer looks completely comfortable in the second halves of fights. Interestingly, they respond to fatigue differently. Joshua stops moving and becomes much easier to hit. When Parker is tired, he'll use his legs to move along the ropes, avoiding action. Joshua has demonstrated that he can catch a second wind in a number of his bouts while Parker seems to keep fading the longer that fights progress. 

The fresher boxer will have a huge advantage in the second half of Saturday's match. Both Joshua and Parker have announced that they plan to come in lighter than they have in their recent fights (the proof will be at Friday's weigh-in); they are essentially admitting that fatigue and conditioning have been problems in the past. It will be interesting to see which fighter has the conditioning edge over the duration of the fight. Often heavyweight bouts have several rounds that feature lulls in the action. The fighter who can push out a few more punches just might be the one to pick up needed rounds on the scorecards. 

5. The corners. 

With Rob McCracken in his corner, Joshua will have a significant advantage in this fight. McCracken has distinguished himself as a trainer, leading Carl Froch to glory in several big fights as well as shepherding Team Great Britain to great heights during the 2012 Olympics. Not only does McCracken have big-fight experience as a trainer, he has done very well in those matches. Featuring creative game plans and a no-nonsense attitude in the corner, McCracken also excels in the tough moments, helping to guide his charges out of danger and providing them with a path to victory (for example, Froch-Taylor, Froch-Groves I and Joshua-Klitschko). 

Parker's trainer, Kevin Barry, doesn't have the same type of strategic or motivational acumen that McCracken possesses. Parker underwhelmed against Fury and won a surprisingly competitive fight against Andy Ruiz. In addition, I'm not sure if Barry and Parker are always on the same wavelength. Parker can drift through rounds and Barry isn't always successful in goading Parker into fighting with more urgency.  

Prediction: 

With a potential mega-fight coming up against Deontay Wilder, it's incumbent for Anthony Joshua to remain undefeated. In addition, Parker's specific skill set suggests that Joshua would be wise to fight a lot of the bout on the outside. Therefore, it wouldn't surprise me if Joshua-Parker turns out to be more of a tactical fight than many anticipate. If Parker's not on the inside, he can't win. No doubt McCracken delivered that message to Joshua during training camp. 

Ultimately, I think that the key word for Saturday's fight will be discipline. Expect to see Joshua utilize his considerable boxing skills to flummox and stymie Parker. Joshua's jab will be a significant factor in the fight and Parker won't find ways to get inside consistently. Joshua will fight within himself and won't look to force the action. If the opening isn't there, then Joshua will wisely pick up points with his superior boxing ability. 

I do expect there to be a few enjoyable tussles on the inside but as the fight progresses, we'll see a lot of the same thing: Joshua giving Parker a boxing lesson. By the end of the fight, Joshua will box his way to a comprehensive and dominant points victory. I'd be surprised if Parker wins more than two rounds. 

Anthony Joshua defeats Joseph Parker by unanimous decision.  

Adam Abramowitz is the founder and head writer of saturdaynightboxing.com. 

He's a member of Ring Magazine's Ring Ratings Panel and a Board Member for the Transnational Boxing Rankings Board. 

Email: saturdaynightboxing@hotmail.com.

snboxing on twitter. SN Boxing on Facebook.  

Anthony Joshua: At the Threshold

It's not hyperbole to suggest that Anthony Joshua has already established himself as the most exciting heavyweight of this generation. At 20-0 and with all of his victories coming by way of knockout, Joshua has captured the imagination of the boxing public. Already he's a megastar in his native Britain. His fights sell out stadiums and every outing of his is a pay per view in his home market. He's a natural with the microphone as well, projecting confidence, determination and humility in perfect proportions. 

Joshua's emergence has led to the symbolic end of the prior heavyweight era, one characterized by robotic and often overly cautious Eastern European champions, typified by the Klitschko brothers. He has reminded boxing audiences that heavyweights can be fluid athletes and needn't shy away from hostilities in the ring. On paper Joshua has it all: two heavyweight belts, an adoring fanbase, a savvy promoter, network support, a first-rate trainer, matinee looks and natural affability. 

Courtesy of Esther Lin/Showtime

However, Joshua has already come to a crucial precipice in his career. Sure, right now he could consider himself the best heavyweight in the world and the claim would be legitimate. But will he become the rightful heir to the greats in the sport's glamour division, or will he remain just the best current heavyweight of a rather mediocre division? Will Joshua take the steps in his career needed to become one of the immortals?

Last Saturday Joshua knocked out Carlos Takam, a late replacement opponent, in the 10th round. Joshua won a virtual shutout on the cards prior to the stoppage although it should be said that Takam had his best moments of the match in the latter rounds. Despite the win, Joshua's performance wasn't among his best as a professional. 

At a career-high 254 lbs., Joshua moved more ponderously in the ring than he had in his more recent outings. He fired mostly single shots instead of combinations and he loaded up early in the fight on seemingly every punch, trying to knock out Takam in short order. Still, Joshua won the early rounds fairly easily. In the 4th, he connected with a sweet counter left hook that forced Takam's glove to touch the canvas – a clear knockdown. 

However, as the rounds progressed Takam got more adventurous. Finding safe haven on the inside, Takam did a fair amount of grappling, which reduced Joshua's clean connects. He fired off a number of left hooks to the body without receiving anything significant in return from Joshua. He also landed a number of clean lead and counter right hands. 

Even though Takam had moments where he did good work, Joshua was still taking every round. And on a night where Joshua was far from his best, he managed to defeat a capable opponent without needing to go into a higher gear. 

Off nights routinely happen in boxing and it would be unfair to penalize Joshua for not necessarily firing on all cylinders against Takam. Joshua remains truly formidable in the division and it will take an excellent fighter to beat him.

Courtesy of Esther Lin/Showtime

At 28, Joshua is in his athletic prime and although he's had a wildly successful start to his career, remember that he's had only 20 professional fights; there are still areas where he can improve. Perhaps most importantly, he and his team, which includes head trainer Rob McCracken, need to find an ideal ring weight. 254 was too big for him. He didn't use the ring like he could have and he didn't move with the same agility that he has in previous fights. Joshua's physicality and size will always be advantages for him but he shouldn't be curtailing his mobility and flexibility. 

Strategically, Joshua needs to understand what makes him such a singular presence in the heavyweight division – his combination punching. Joshua isn't the best puncher in the division. He's not the fastest guy. But he has a large punch arsenal and the coordination and technique to put several power punches together in rapid succession. When Joshua can land his right cross, left hook, jab and uppercut, opponents can't defend against his variety. Conversely, when Joshua was just trying to drop Takam with right hands early in the fight on Saturday, Takam survived quite easily. 

Knockouts are special. They electrify audiences. It's not that Joshua should forego KO's in favor of clever boxing, but he needs to remember that his knockouts come from multiple hard punches. He's not Deontay Wilder, who can end the night of any heavyweight with just his right hand. Joshua needs to set up his shots. Keeping his body loose and limber will help put him in position to land his best power punches. Joshua shouldn't be aiming to win pinup contests; he's there to dispatch opponents. 

Technically, Joshua still needs to work on his jab. In the Takam fight, Joshua returned his left to his waist after throwing the jab, leaving his left side completely open for a counter shot. This tendency could become quite problematic for him. Hopefully McCracken can help iron out that bad habit. 

If this sounds like I'm nitpicking Joshua's performance, perhaps there's some truth there. But these aspects are what Joshua must improve upon if he wants to get to the next level. Perfecting these areas will allow him to have a run of dominance at the top level of the sport. 

Joshua stands on the threshold of greatness but there's no guarantee that he reaches that lofty perch. Many fighters have succumbed to the trappings of success, the infatuation with their headlines, overconfidence or complacency. For Joshua, his biggest enemy in achieving boxing immortality may be himself. He'll be favored against fellow titleholders Joseph Parker and Wilder and perhaps only by allowing himself to be at a level beneath his best, will opponents defeat him; however, these scenarios happen all the time in boxing. Keep your left hand down against Carlos Takam and you'll be fine. Do that against Wilder and it could be career-altering. 

Earlier in the year, Joshua engaged in a Fight of the Year contender against Wladimir Klitschko where both fighters hit the canvas. Joshua demonstrated confidence, resolve and poise to climb his way back into that fight after being so badly hurt. But let's remember, that bout also showed that Joshua's defense can be penetrated. No matter how euphoric the praise may be for Joshua in some quarters, he has proven to be vulnerable. That's not a fighter who should be overconfident and making some textbook defensive mistakes. 

It's up to Joshua's to decide how good he wants to become. If he's self-satisfied, then his current level is certainly sufficient to compete against the best in the division. However, if he wants a truly memorable reign atop the heavyweights, and by implication, the sport of boxing, now is where he needs to tighten up these potential holes. With improvement in his Ring IQ – understanding what type of fighter he truly is – he will become even more formidable. Getting himself in optimal boxing shape, not body sculpting, will enable him to go 12 hard rounds and fire off his best weapons: combinations. And finally, he needs to remember that he can be hurt. Joshua didn't defend his body well on Saturday and left himself too open for counters. There smacked faint whiffs of overconfidence in the ring.

Joshua possesses the physical and technical attributes to become a great heavyweight but very little is given in this sport. Joshua must seize the moment. Like many fans, I'm captivated by his potential. Will he slip up? Will the next ten years be the Joshua Decade? More than anything else, it seems as if Joshua himself holds these answers. Will he play his cards for greater reward, or will he cash in his winnings, content to call it an evening? 

Adam Abramowitz is the founder and head writer of saturdaynightboxing.com
He's a member of the Transnational Boxing Rankings Board.
Email: saturdaynightboxing@hotmail.com
@snboxing on twitter. SN Boxing on Facebook