Boxing fans have been treated to a number of memorable fights in
the first quarter of 2018 and Saturday's heavyweight unification match between
British boxing superstar Anthony Joshua (20-0, 20 KOs) and New Zealand's Joseph
Parker (24-0, 18 KOs) should continue the sport's winning streak. Over 75,000 fans are expected to fill Principality Stadium in Cardiff, Wales.
As
a champion Joshua has been riding the wave to true superstardom. Last year he
knocked out Wladimir Klitschko in almost everyone's fight of the year and he
also dispatched the capable Carlos Takam in 10 rounds. Joshua features power in
both hands and a strong boxing foundation. He did hit the deck against
Klitschko and his chin is not his strongest attribute in the ring.
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| Courtesy of Esther Lin/Showtime |
Although
there's been a lot of excitement in boxing circles about a possible mega-fight
between Joshua and American titlist Deontay Wilder, Parker will look to rewrite
the existing narrative in the heavyweight division; this is his moment to shine. However,
in his last fight, he was lucky to escape with a majority decision over
Hughie Fury. There's no use in sugar-coating it: Parker-Fury was atrocious to
watch. Fury had a lot of success back-footing Parker, who often crudely lunged
in with ineffective power shots. Nevertheless, two judges preferred Parker's
attempts at aggression and he was awarded the decision.
Luckily for Parker, Joshua won't employ the same type of evasive
style that Fury displayed. Joshua prefers to fight in the pocket. He likes to
mix in his power shots and he'll look to land his best punch, his right uppercut; however, he needs to be in range for that to happen. Thus, Parker should have
opportunities to land and trade.
But does Parker have enough dimensions in the ring to beat Joshua
or will he be outgunned by a more versatile opponent? Will Joshua continue his
assault on the heavyweight division? Below are the Keys to the Fight. My
prediction will be at the end of the article.
1. Will Joshua box or fight?
Part of what makes Joshua so refreshing is that he's a heavyweight
who doesn't shy away from contact. Unlike the Klitschko brothers, Joshua
doesn't believe in neutralizing opponents. He wants to assert himself in the
ring and dominate his opposition. He's not afraid to take a shot to land one.
However, Joshua's not a brawler by any means. With a solid jab, a large arsenal
of punches and athleticism, Joshua can also win rounds via fundamental
boxing.
Against Parker, Joshua will have significant size and reach
advantages. He can control the outside and use his feet to get himself out of
trouble. The question comes down to what kind of fight Joshua wants. If he's
content to win rounds by boxing and mixing it up only sporadically, that
opportunity is there for him. However, if he wants to punish Parker and blast
him out of the ring, then that scenario would give Parker more options in the
fight.
2. Chins.
Joshua was dropped against Klitschko and staggered when facing
Dillian Whyte. To this point in his career, Parker has displayed a good beard.
His problems have come more from fatigue than from chin issues. In this fight Joshua has the flashier weapons – straight right hand, left hook and right
uppercut; however, don't discount Parker's considerable power. Parker's at his best on
the inside and he throws menacing shots downstairs. He may work the body as
well as any current heavyweight. In addition, Parker throws a sneaky, short
right to the head that often finds its mark because his foes are so conscious of
protecting themselves from his body shots.
Still, one can look at Parker's resume and not see a bona fide
puncher as an opponent. Andy Ruiz is heavy-handed but lacks knockout weapons.
Carlos Takam is a solid but not spectacular puncher. Although Parker's chin has
held up until now, he's never faced a slugger like Joshua. Parker needs to
defend himself on the inside against Joshua's uppercut and he also must be wary
of Joshua's left hook from close range. On paper, Parker might have the edge in
the chin department, but it might not play out that way on
Saturday.
3. Who wins on the inside?
Joshua has many weapons on the inside, but his shots aren't as
short as Parker's; they need time and space to develop. Joshua, however, is the
more accurate technician. He can cause damage with any of his shots without needing sustained flurries to land something meaningful. Parker often likes to grapple on the inside. He'll
use his body to push opponents around to find angles to land his best shots.
Much of this fight will come down to Ring IQ on the inside. Joshua
doesn't have to engage at close range to win while Parker has to be on the
inside to be victorious. Joshua should use his legs or tie up when
appropriate. For Parker, he'll need some deception when attacking (something
which hasn't exactly been his forte). Rushing in with crude punches won't be
enough against a fighter with Joshua's weapons. Parker is also going to have to work in the clinch
whenever possible. He shouldn't be initiating clinches to take a breather;
that's an area in the ring where he needs to do his best work.
4. Fatigue.
Both Joshua and Parker have exhibited conditioning issues
throughout their respective careers. Perhaps because of their size or that so
many of their developmental bouts ended with early stoppages, neither boxer
looks completely comfortable in the second halves of fights. Interestingly,
they respond to fatigue differently. Joshua stops moving and becomes much
easier to hit. When Parker is tired, he'll use his legs to move along the
ropes, avoiding action. Joshua has demonstrated that he can catch a second wind in a number
of his bouts while Parker seems to keep fading the longer that fights
progress.
The fresher boxer will have a huge advantage in the second half of
Saturday's match. Both Joshua and Parker have announced that they plan to come
in lighter than they have in their recent fights (the proof will be at Friday's
weigh-in); they are essentially admitting that fatigue and conditioning have
been problems in the past. It will be interesting to see which fighter
has the conditioning edge over the duration of the fight. Often heavyweight
bouts have several rounds that feature lulls in the action. The fighter who can
push out a few more punches just might be the one to pick up needed rounds on
the scorecards.
5. The corners.
With Rob McCracken in his corner, Joshua will have a significant advantage in this fight. McCracken has distinguished himself as a trainer,
leading Carl Froch to glory in several big fights as well as shepherding Team Great Britain to great heights during the 2012 Olympics. Not
only does McCracken have big-fight experience as a trainer, he has done very
well in those matches. Featuring creative game plans and a no-nonsense attitude
in the corner, McCracken also excels in the tough moments, helping to guide his charges out of danger and providing them with a path
to victory (for example, Froch-Taylor, Froch-Groves I and Joshua-Klitschko).
Parker's trainer, Kevin Barry, doesn't have the same type of
strategic or motivational acumen that McCracken possesses. Parker underwhelmed
against Fury and won a surprisingly competitive fight against Andy Ruiz. In
addition, I'm not sure if Barry and Parker are always on the same wavelength. Parker can drift through rounds and Barry isn't
always successful in goading Parker into fighting with more
urgency.
Prediction:
With a potential mega-fight coming up against Deontay Wilder, it's
incumbent for Anthony Joshua to remain undefeated. In addition, Parker's
specific skill set suggests that Joshua would be wise to fight a lot of the
bout on the outside. Therefore, it wouldn't surprise me if Joshua-Parker turns
out to be more of a tactical fight than many anticipate. If Parker's not on the
inside, he can't win. No doubt McCracken delivered that message to Joshua
during training camp.
Ultimately, I think that the key word for Saturday's fight will be
discipline. Expect to see Joshua utilize his considerable boxing skills to
flummox and stymie Parker. Joshua's jab will be a significant factor in the
fight and Parker won't find ways to get inside consistently. Joshua will fight
within himself and won't look to force the action. If the opening isn't there,
then Joshua will wisely pick up points with his superior boxing ability.
I do expect there to be a few enjoyable tussles on the inside but
as the fight progresses, we'll see a lot of the same thing: Joshua giving
Parker a boxing lesson. By the end of the fight, Joshua will box his way to a
comprehensive and dominant points victory. I'd be surprised if Parker wins more
than two rounds.
Anthony Joshua defeats Joseph Parker by unanimous decision.
Adam Abramowitz is the founder and head writer of saturdaynightboxing.com.
He's a member of Ring Magazine's Ring Ratings Panel and a Board Member for the Transnational Boxing Rankings Board.
snboxing on twitter. SN Boxing on Facebook. 
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