Monday, October 7, 2024

Beterbiev-Bivol: Preview and Prediction

The most significant light heavyweight fight in generations takes place on Saturday between Artur Beterbiev (20-0, 20 KOs) and Dmitry Bivol (23-0, 12 KOs) in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. The fight will be for undisputed status at 175 lbs. and the winner will emerge on the shortlist as one of the best of his time. For the last truly undisputed light heavyweight in the sport, we'd have to go back all the way to Michael Spinks in the '80s, so the winner of Saturday's fight will be in rarified air.   

Perfect Opponents 

If you were to draw up a hypothetical perfect opponent to beat Dmitry Bivol, Arthur Beterbiev would be as close to ideal as possible. Beterbiev, with the 100% knockout rate, does not need to land a lot of shots to stop fighters, which is important because Bivol doesn't get hit frequently. Similarly, Beterbiev is not reliant on one specific punch, which makes it tougher for Bivol to gear his defense to protecting himself against a lone knockout weapon. And if Beterbiev can get someone hurt, he can close. Bivol has been hurt before by Joe Smith and hit with enormous shots by Canelo Alvarez, but he was never close to being stopped. If anyone can stop Bivol at 175 lbs., Beterbiev is the guy. 

The converse of this matchup is also true. Bivol is the perfect type of fighter to beat Beterbiev. He has exceptional feet and is faster on the outside than Beterbiev. He can score with shots and can get out of range well. He has a terrific jab that allows him to win rounds while minimizing risk. Perhaps most importantly, Bivol has the temperament to face a relentless slugger like Beterbiev; he doesn't care if he stinks a fight out. Bivol isn't concerned with wowing the crowd. He is there to win and he will try to accomplish that by any means necessary. He's not in the business of giving his opponents a lot of shots at him and he's not interested in trading. He's there to land and leave. 

Beterbiev (left) and Bivol face-off at the kickoff presser
Photo courtesy of Queensbury Promotions

Beterbiev's Age 

On fight night Beterbiev will be 39 years old, six years older than Bivol. 39 is old in boxing, but not necessarily disqualifying, especially at the higher weights. Archie Moore was light heavyweight champion at 45. Bernard Hopkins was champ at 49. And another point in Beterbiev's favor is the relatively small number of professional rounds that he's had. He still hasn't hit 100 professional rounds (just 98). Compare that to Bivol, who even at a significantly younger age, has almost 100 more pro rounds (190). So just how much is age a factor in the fight?  

Despite Beterbiev's expert ability to make quick work of his opponents, I believe that it would be a mistake to consider him well-preserved. Beterbiev has dropped out of or delayed several fights over the past five years, including this one. Recent physical issues have involved his knee, his jaw and his shoulder. These are the types of things that happen as fighters age; they start to break down. Beterbiev enters this match after fighting in January, which for him is a lot of activity. This will be his first time fighting twice in a calendar year since 2021. In his last five years he has had the following number of fights: 0, 2, 1, 1 and now 2. It's possible for fighters to get old overnight, especially ones who are inactive and have had recent injuries.   

Each Has a Lost Art 

If there are two frustrations I have with modern boxers in the ring, it's that so few can fight effectively on the inside and hardly anyone knows how to stink a fight out and win. In this fight, Beterbiev (the former) and Bivol (the latter) really understand these dynamics of the sport. In close, Beterbiev varies the pace and power of his shots. He'll mix in touch shots with massive artillery. He goes to the body and the head. He knows how to position his body to get throwing angles while minimizing those of his opponents. In the trenches, his footwork is often terrific.  

And Bivol will try his very best to ensure that none of those attributes from Beterbiev will manifest in the fight. He has the agility to move for 12 rounds and even if he's not throwing or taking a round off, he knows not to put himself at risk. Now there are many opponents who can minimize risk but not necessarily win their big fights. However, Bivol not only wins fights, but they are rarely close. Although Bivol has won tons of decisions in his fights, I don't think that any of them were undeserved. Yes, he faded late against Craig Richards and had to deal with Canelo's magnetism as it relates to judges, but I don't think that those fights were ever in serious doubt with an unbiased set of eyes. If Bivol needs to fight negatively, he can, and can still win. 

The Key Factor

The fight doesn't start, in my opinion, until Beterbiev can hurt Bivol. Up to that point, I would expect Bivol to win rounds based on volume, hand speed and ring generalship. It's not that Beterbiev is a bad boxer, not by any means. In fact, he has been mischaracterized as a one-dimensional slugger for far too long. Beterbiev possesses several tremendous boxing attributes. He can lead and counter. He can hurt an opponent with several weapons. His body shots are pulverizing. He has a counter right hook to the side of the head that seems to land on everyone. Although his foot speed has been criticized, he can cut off the ring really well. He can also expertly turn opponents on the ropes.  

And although all of the above is true, he just isn't the boxer that Bivol is. The speed advantage is real in this fight. But it's not just about athleticism, Bivol knows how to control the ring with his movements. He glides effortlessly. He can go laterally either way, circle, or move in and out. He doesn't need to plant his feet to land punches and he rarely sticks around after throwing. He's one of the most elusive fighters in this era.  

I just don't see Beterbiev beating Bivol by out-boxing him. But Beterbiev can certainly turn the tide with a boxing move. That practiced counter right hook could be the shot. Maybe it will be his sledgehammer jab. Boxing won't win Beterbiev the fight, but it may be the entry point for him to do so. 

If and when Beterbiev hurts Bivol, then we will see all we need to know about Bivol's recuperative powers and if Beterbiev can finish an opponent as hard to find as Bivol. The only frame of reference is Bivol in the Joe Smith fight, where Bivol was hurt late in that fight at the end of a round. He needed more than a round to recover his bearings. But Smith just couldn’t land the final blow. And in truth, despite having a rocked opponent in front of him, Smith didn't get close. Beterbiev is certainly more well-rounded offensively than Smtih, and he will need to be to get Bivol down and possibly out.   

Prediction: 

This fight could certainly go many ways, but I can't get past the fact that Bivol doesn't care about style points. That's the singular attribute that makes me side with him in this matchup. It's not that he knows how to stink out a fight; it's that he has a willingness to do so. The crowd booing won't bother him one bit.  

I would certainly hate a sport that had 15 champions who all knew how to stink out a fight against a top opponent, but I can definitely appreciate one champ who can and will. There's a beauty in it. Floyd was great at it. So was Hopkins. They won fights that often weren't in doubt and yet sometimes it would be a challenge to recall any memorable punches that they landed. Their level of control was that comprehensive. I believe that Bivol is in this category.  

But even the great Floyd and the great Hopkins had rough nights, fights they could have lost, and with Hopkins, fights that he did lose. Every style can be gotten to. Every fighter can be beaten. So even as I marvel at Bivol's athleticism, technical prowess and grace in the ring, he's a short, clubbing right hand away from being Beterbiev's 21st KO victim. And let's never forget that the risk Beterbiev presents in this fight will be real in every second of the match. Bivol cannot make too many mistakes and expect to win.  

I think that Bivol will win by decision, but he will have to survive one or two moments of genuine peril, and those moments will make for a riveting fight. Beterbiev is too skilled to go 12 rounds without landing something consequential. I just don't know if he has the speed to capitalize on those moments. It's one thing landing something big on Bivol, but can Beterbiev find the right combination of shots to get Bivol out of the fight? I have my concerns. It's certainly possible that Bivol hits the canvas on Saturday, but I do expect him to hear the final bell. Let's say that Bivol wins 10 rounds to 2 or 9 rounds to 3, but no one will regret watching the fight.  

Dmitry Bivol defeats Artur Beterbiev via wide decision. 10 rounds to 2 or 9 rounds to 3. 

Adam Abramowitz is the founder and head writer of saturdaynightboxing.com
He's a contributing writer for Ring Magazine, a member of the Ring Magazine Ratings Panel, the Transnational Boxing Rankings Board, and the Boxing Writers Association of America.
snboxing on twitter. SN Boxing on Facebook  

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