One of
the premier matchups of 2017 takes place in Sheffield, England on Saturday
between welterweight titlist Kell Brook (36-1, 25 KOs) and undefeated American
Olympian Errol Spence, Jr. (21-0, 18 KOs). For Brook, Saturday's fight marks a
homecoming for the Sheffield native and a chance to cement his status as one of
the top welterweights in boxing. A win for Spence would formally
announce his presence as one of the true rising stars in the sport. Both
fighters possess a litany of knockout weapons and sterling boxing technique.
When last
in a boxing ring, Brook suffered a massive beatdown in a middleweight fight
against Gennady Golovkin. Although Brook had some success early in that fight,
Golovkin's power and pressure were too much for him. He wound up suffering a broken
orbital bone and didn't make it out of the fifth round. In a surprise to many,
Brook insisting on dropping back two divisions to defend his welterweight crown
even though he had struggled with the 147-lb. limit in the past.
Spence
has faced limited opposition in his rise to a title shot. He knocked out his
two best opponents with ease (Leonard Bundu and Chris Algieri) and lost no more
than a couple of rounds in his developmental fights. Despite being relatively untested in his professional career, Spence enters Saturday's fight brimming with
confidence.
Brook-Spence
will be a proving ground in determining which fighter is truly an elite fighter
in the sport. Brook will have the edges in the home-field advantage and big-fight experience while Spence possesses the better knockout weapons and a
blistering body attack. Below are the keys to the fight. My prediction will be
at the end of the article.
1.
Brook's recovery and return to 147 lbs.
After a
lengthy recuperation period, Brook will enter Saturday's fight having been out
of the ring for almost nine months. Pictures that have circulated throughout his training camp appear to show the champion in fine physical form; however, experienced boxing observers know that still photos provide only a limited amount of information.
Yes, it's
certainly possible that Brook will make weight without a hitch but many
important questions should be raised. How intense was Brook's sparring during
camp? Was training devoted primarily to cutting weight or is he in peak fighting
form? Is his body still comfortable at 147? And perhaps most importantly, how
good is his eye? Can he still see punches like he once did? Is there lingering scar
tissue that could open up during the fight?
We don't
know the answers to these questions at this point but they are central in determining a winner for Saturday's fight. The difference between a healthy
Brook and one fighting at a diminished capacity could be a significant factor
in who earns the victory.
2.
Spence's chin
We know
very little about Spence's chin. Anyone who isn't in Spence's camp that claims to
know if he can take a punch is being untruthful. Spence's ledger of opponents
is devoid of even a moderate puncher. He didn't even face a trial horse or
gatekeeper on his way up that could flash a little leather.
At this
point, we don't know if Spence's chin is a liability or an asset. It's
imperative for Brook to find out about Spence's whiskers on Saturday, and as soon
as he can. Brook's game plan should center on landing big shots early to test
his younger foe. If Spence seems to take shots well, Brook can segue into a
"Plan A." However, if Spence doesn't respond well to Brook's
power punches then Kell has to attack with a more aggressive "Plan
B." It's incumbent for a fighter to test his opponent's potential weaknesses
and if Brook starts out the fight as a jabber, he'll let a potential
opportunity for victory fall by the wayside.
3. Don't
let Spence get comfortable
Although
Spence has international amateur experience and even fought in the U.K. during
the 2012 Olympics, he's never experienced a big-fight atmosphere like the one that he
will encounter on Saturday. With 30,000 fans rooting against him and fighting six time
zones away from home, Spence could certainly be apprehensive early in the bout.
Brook
must seize his advantage in the opening rounds. He should let his hands go
immediately from the opening bell and even blitz Spence in the first couple of
frames. He shouldn't provide Spence with the opportunity to get settled in the
ring. Brook needs to dictate the pace and apply pressure. This approach might
unsettle Spence and/or leave him vulnerable in the early rounds before he gains his footing. Going for an early KO might be the smart play for Brook. Of course
it's a gamble, but it's one that's worth taking.
4.
Spence's body shots
Spence is
one of the best body punchers in the sport. Going downstairs with jabs,
straight lefts, right hooks and uppercuts, Spence breaks down opponents with
thudding blows. Even though body work is typically a part of Spence's M.O. in
the ring, against Brook, body shots may be the paramount key to a
victory.
Brook has
had weight struggles in the past and one of the best ways to diminish a fighter
who might not be in peak condition is going to the body. Perhaps Spence may
need to sacrifice a few rounds early in the fight in order to land a handful of
his best body shots. Those punches will soften Brook up for later in
the fight and make him less active. Spence should go to Brook's body
mercilessly. He may not match Brook's hand speed or punch volume but committed
body punching will reduce Brook's advantages and create a more even playing field
for later in the fight.
5.
Conditioning
Brook has had
two difficult distance fights in his career – the first Carson Jones bout and
the Shawn Porter match. Those two fights illustrated potential strengths and
weaknesses. Brook was hurt badly in the Jones bout, hanging on to survive in
the final round to secure the victory. An optimist would say that Brook
successfully navigated around getting hurt. He knew how to tie up and buy time.
He was successful in avoiding a finishing blow from Jones. A pessimist might
claim that Brook was vulnerable late in the fight. Brook's defense deteriorated
as the match continued and he started to throw increasing numbers of arm
punches.
Against
Porter, Brook was far more poised. Facing a bullrush throughout most of the 12
rounds, Brook held his ground well and did a fantastic job of neutralizing
Porter at many moments in the fight. Porter applied ferocious pressure and had his moments but Brook was able to remain composed and
was the more effective puncher throughout the majority of the match.
Spence
has never had to go 12 rounds. In fact, he's only been 10 rounds once and that
was an easy decision victory against Ronald Cruz. Spence hasn't been pressed at the
world level and like his chin, we don't know how he'll hold up throughout 36
minutes of combat.
It's
tough to say who will have the advantage in the later rounds on Saturday. On
one hand, Brook will be propped up by the crowd and has the experience of
persevering through tough fights. However, it's also possible that Brook can
lose focus and effectiveness as he fatigues. As for Spence, this is the great
unknown. Perhaps he rises to the occasion, or maybe he'lll wilt under pressure. However,
unless this fight ends in a quick knockout (which is a possibility), expect
conditioning to play a major role. It's an open question as to which boxer has
the edge in this department.
Prediction:
I think
that Brook-Spence will be one of the best fights on 2017. I'm expecting a
shootout. Brook will come out guns blazing and will tag Spence with jabs, straight
right hands and uppercuts early in the fight. Spence will get rocked early and
will look vulnerable. A few uppercuts to the body will start to put Brook
at bay and the match will eventually settle into a war of attrition, with both
fighters landing eye-catching shots and taking turns reclaiming momentum in the bout.
Ultimately,
I think that Spence hangs on to survive in the first few rounds – he may even need to get off the canvas – but eventually
his body attack will start to pay dividends. In the middle rounds, as the action
takes place in center of the ring, Spence's body shots will have
their desired effect; Brook's energy level will begin to flag. Brook will continue to throw and land but the sting in
his shots will dissipate. As the fight progresses into the back third, Spence
will up his attack and continue his body assault. Eventually, a left to the body sends Brook to the canvas, and he won't be able to beat the count.
Errol
Spence, Jr. KO 9 Kell Brook
Adam Abramowitz is the founder/head writer of saturdaynightboxing.com.
Adam Abramowitz is the founder/head writer of saturdaynightboxing.com.
He's a member of the Transnational Boxing Rankings Board.
