Beterbiev-Bivol 2: Preview and Prediction

Before we address Saturday's undisputed light heavyweight rematch between Artur Beterbiev (21-0, 20 KOs) and Dmitry Bivol (23-1, 12 KOs), let's try to understand what exactly happened during their first fight in October. After 12 rounds, opinion was split as to who won. The judges awarded the fight to Beterbiev via a majority decision, 116-112, 115-113 and 114-114, but it seemed like for every person who had Beterbiev winning, there was someone who thought that Bivol deserved it. (I scored the fight a draw.)

What made the fight so difficult to score were two distinct dynamics: 1. There were a few inconsequential rounds in the beginning of the fight where not a ton happened (the third round was a great example of this). Bivol was busier, but Beterbiev landed a couple of eye-catching shots. 2. There were two rounds (the seventh and the tenth) where Bivol was dominating the action, then got countered in the last 30 seconds, and was visibly hurt by the end of the round. Those rounds were the definition of "what you like." Should Bivol's dominance through most of the round be rewarded or does Beterbiev's significant damage in the last few seconds carry it? 

Their October fight fell into a gray area of boxing scoring, where the judges' cards were defensible, but legitimate differences of opinion could be warranted based on the action, or, at times, inaction of the bout. In my opinion, there were a possible eight rounds to give to Beterbiev and there were eight rounds where a judge could give it to Bivol. There were that many swing rounds in the fight.

Beterbiev (left) and Bivol trading in October
Photo courtesy of Mikey Williams/Top Rank

Now this takes us to Saturday. What are the lessons learned for each fighter? For Beterbiev, it's obvious: Don't start as slowly. It's clear that Beterbiev, who had previously knocked out every opponent prior to Bivol, was concerned about the pacing of the fight. Having never gone 12 before, he wanted to make sure that he had enough in the tank in the second half of the fight. He wound up certainly having the juice at the end and dominated the championship rounds, but he definitely gave up some early rounds by not being busy enough. 

For the rematch, Beterbiev needs to bring the heat from the opening bell. Beterbiev now knows that he can hurt Bivol. He must apply maximum pressure and ferocity on Saturday. Yes, he escaped with the victory in October, but it could have gone the other way.

For Bivol, he has one adjustment to make. I believe that he lost the fight on the scorecards by being too greedy. I was shocked to see him bring the action to Beterbiev on the inside, and it was to his detriment. For Bivol, it was not enough to win rounds; he wanted to dominate. I thought that Bivol would play safety-first. But that's not what happened. As he unloaded on Beterbiev on the inside, he got countered by short, hard shots that did significant damage. And in an instant, all the good work that Bivol did earlier in those rounds was chucked in the bin. He went from having the upper hand to being in survival mode in the blink of an eye. 

There was an arrogance from Bivol that I didn't anticipate. But maybe I wasn't looking closely enough. In Bivol's signature win earlier in his career, against Canelo, the same pattern played out, minus the big counters. Bivol did very well on the outside. However, Bivol wasn't content just to play it safe. He took it to Canelo on the inside as well, as several of the middle rounds were spent with Bivol teeing off on Canelo, who had his back to the ropes. 

We like to think of Bivol as this machine-like, robotic boxer. But in big fights it's clear that his ego does play a part. He wants to dominate his opponent, embarrass him. Bivol wants the world to see his greatness. 

For Bivol to win on Saturday, he's going to have to swallow a bitter pill. He must box from mid-range or at a distance and he can't take chances on the inside. And he's going to have to stick to this pattern for 12 rounds. Yes, we've seen him do this against lesser opponents, but I'm not sure if he can sell himself on this approach against Beterbiev. After all, Bivol, like many others, believes that he won the first fight; it was the judges' problem, not his. 

My pick for Saturday is Beterbiev by knockout. I didn't pick Beterbiev to win the first fight and I don't believe that he won it either. But I think that his adjustment is more straight-forward. Artur, go to Bivol earlier. Ok, he says. And he does it. He knows he can hurt Bivol. He just needs to give himself more of the fight to work with. It's not going to be one shot that ends the bout, but sustained pressure and damage over time. 

I don't believe that Bivol can make it through 12 rounds against a Beterbiev who is determined to apply pressure from round one. Beterbiev now knows he can go 12. He has seen the best that Bivol can offer. It wasn't Beterbiev who was getting hurt. Bivol is going to have to keep the ego in check and yet still do enough to stay upright, stay off the canvas, and win rounds against a foe who is determined to finish him. I think it's too tall of an order. I'll take Beterbiev by late stoppage. 

Artur Beterbiev defeats Dmitry Bivol by 11th-round stoppage. 

Adam Abramowitz is the founder and head writer of saturdaynightboxing.com. 

He's a contributing writer for Ring Magazine, a member of the Ring Magazine Ratings Panel, the Transnational Boxing Rankings Board, and the Boxing Writers Association of America.

Email: saturdaynightboxing@hotmail.com

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