Here is my Fury-Usyk preview and prediction article for Ring Magazine. In the article, I broke the fight down by which fighter has the better skills in 14 categories. To read the article, click here.
I'm honored to announce that I've been admitted to the Boxing Writers Association of America as a fulltime member. I'm thrilled to join the organization, which includes many of the best writers on the sport. It's a very happy day!
The Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia is home to the
Philadelphia 76ers and Flyers. It's the premier indoor entertainment venue in the city. Walking
through the relatively empty arena on Friday for the Jaron "Boots"
Ennis-Cody Crowley press conference, one thought was rushing through my mind:
How are they going to fill this place?
As storied as Philadelphia is in boxing, with its dozens of
champions, the Rocky mystique, and a gym culture that ranks as
one of the best in the world, what hasn't happened over the last two decades in the city is success on the big-time boxing stage. Sure, there have been a
few attempts. Beterbiev-Gvozdyk was there, Tevin Farmer made a
hometown title defense (at the time he was co-promoted by Matchroom
Boxing/Eddie Hearn), and Danny Garcia also had a homecoming fight. Yet none of
those events was a huge box office success. Furthermore, they took place at the
Liacouras Center, a smaller arena, which had been scaled for 8,000-10,000 and
not the Wells Fargo Center, which can seat 20,000 comfortably.
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| Ennis, Hearn and Crowley at the press conference Photo courtesy of Andrew Maclean/Matchroom |
But Hearn believes that things will be different this time. He also thinks that with Ennis he has a future pound-for-pound level talent. Hearn announced that the ticket presale for the bout, which is an Ennis welterweight title defense and a homecoming fight, sold 4,500 tickets.
Hearn also wants to signal to the boxing world that Ennis should be a superstar. And this is where superstars belong: in big arenas, trying to capture the imagination of a larger sporting audience.
Hearn can be many things, but he is at heart a promoter, a
dreamer. He believes in big events, whether it's at Wembley or Saudi Arabia or
Las Vegas or at Cowboys stadium. He pointed to the success that Devin Haney had
in selling over 15,000 tickets in a homecoming fight in San Francisco against
Regis Prograis, and San Francisco is another city that had not recently had a
lot of success as a destination for big fights. Hearn acknowledged that
he could have taken a safer route by staging Ennis-Crowley at the Liacouras
Center, but he's not interested in safe at the moment; he wants to make a
splash.
***
Ennis-Crowley is an unusual title fight in that a year ago
Ennis was languishing as a mandatory challenger waiting for a big opponent to fight him
(it never came) and Crowley was struggling to gain momentum in his professional
career and in his personal life. Crowley is an atypical success story. Hailing
from Ontario, Canada, Crowley entered the professional ranks with few assets. A
number of his early professional bouts took place in out-of-the-way locales
such as Oklahoma City; Norfolk, Virginia; and the Maryland State Fairgrounds.
He ultimately returned to Peterborough, Canada where he promoted many of his
own shows.
Crowley doesn't have a big punch and lacks other athletic
skills that jump off the screen. In his 22 professional fights, he has only
nine stoppages, and much of this was against pedestrian opposition in his early
fights. But he kept winning. Belatedly, six years into his pro career, he got
an opportunity on a PBC card in 2020 and won. Since then, he has appeared on
PBC-branded shows, but the fight against Ennis will only be his fifth fight in the
last four years.
There are reasons for those activity gaps. His dad committed suicide and Crowley had to overcome significant mental health concerns in the aftermath. He had a double eye surgery (always a bit of a worrying sign). He also had a problem with his former management.
On Friday, Crowley was joined by
Anthony Girges, his new manager, on stage. Girges was brilliant during the
Q&A in the press conference, defending his fighter and riling up Team
Ennis. It looked like he had been in the game for a dozen years. But in speaking
to Girges after the press conference, he admitted that Crowley is his first
fighter and that he's new to boxing management; he's flying by the seat of
his pants.
Crowley sees himself as a winner. He mixed in the "aw
shucks happy to be there" vibes with full confidence that he will be
successful. He wanted to fight Ennis, even though other champs at 147 including
Eimantas Stanionis and Mario Barrios (who has an interim belt) could have been
easier fights to make and perhaps easier fights in the ring. He believes that
Boots is the best at 147 and that's why he wanted to face him in the
ring.
Cerebral during his interviews, Crowley can be philosophical about himself and boxing as a whole. It's not quite clear where he will go, but he gets there. He'll drop in a word like "manifestation" and discuss the illusions of professional boxing, especially as it relates to the sanctioning bodies. He fully realizes that it's a game to get a title shot. Talent is only part of the story. And that's something that Boots, who waited years for high-level opponents, could attest to. So much about boxing is who or what is behind the curtain. Who has the right promoter? The right management? The right connections with the sanctioning bodies? It's an aspect of the sport that few are willing to discuss publicly, but Crowley held no reluctance on such matters on Friday.
***
Boots Ennis was asked if he was nervous about the homecoming fight and he laughed, almost dismissing the question. Boots has been around the sport his whole life. He had two older brothers who were successful professional fighters. But as good as Derek (24-5) and Farah (22-2) were throughout their careers, Boots was the one thought to be special. As an amateur, there was a huge buzz about him in Philadelphia. During his early career, he was selling out Philadelphia club shows with standing-room-only audiences. Philly fight fans might not agree on much, but seemingly all acknowledged Boots' special talent.
“Listen, there’s really no pressure on me," he said on
Friday. "I’ve been in this game since I was a baby. There’s no pressure.
It’s normal for me. My brothers have been at the top and I’ve seen all this
stuff before. This is like being at home in my house right now. It’s natural
for me and it’s normal." And while all of that might sound like the right
thing to say, Boots' nonchalance was clear. He has expected this from himself.
Like Crowley, he has manifested it. When Errol Spence or Terence Crawford wouldn't
give him a shot, he found another way.
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| Photo courtesy of Andrew Maclean/Matchroom |
At 26 years old and featuring a record of 31-0 (28 KOs), Boots is squarely in his athletic prime. He has an unusual combination of athleticism, power and ring smarts. But what Boots had lacked, and much of this was his own doing, was a big push behind him. Boots' father and trainer, Bozy, had rejected the advances of bigger promoters and Boots spent much of his career promoted by Cameron Dunkin, a legendary talent scout and manager, but someone who didn't have the stable or juice to help Boots land bigger fights.
Boots is now with Matchroom, and he has the platform, the money behind him and the potential future opponents to ascend to the higher ranks in the sport. He will now have the opportunity to test himself consistently against top opposition. There will be no more excuses or "woulda, coulda, shoulda." Boots can now make of his career what he will.
But I'd certainly feel better if his dad didn't say "we never watch tape of our opponents," seemingly unbothered by what Crowley could offer in the ring. Of course, Bozy also called Crowley a good fighter, and expected him to bring the best out of Boots. So maybe Bozy has seen Crowley fight before; press conference games are nothing new.
***
The press conference started late, and Hearn met with the media prior to the start of the event. He held court for well over 30 minutes as various media members pushed their microphones, phones and video cameras in front of his face. Observing from the back, it was impressive to watch Hearn navigate from topic to topic: "What do you make of Ryan Garcia's positive test?" "Could you see Boots fighting Crawford next year?" "What's Canelo going to do next?" "Is Conor Benn able to fight right now?" He didn't miss a beat.
I'm not sure there's a better promoter in the sport at that
part of the job: working the media. I've seen Hearn after a fight card answer
questions for hours. He never seems to tire from interacting with the media. He gives
people their chance. He relishes the back-and-forth and he can be a really
persuasive salesman. Sure, he can spin, but it's also his job to spin. It's the
media's job to balance a statement given to them with a potential greater truth, especially
if there may be daylight between the two.
Matchroom and Hearn in particular have been a mixed bag since they entered the American boxing market. On one hand, they've been involved in some huge events with Canelo. They have cultivated talents such as Bam Rodriguez. Some of their U.S.-based prospects such as Raymond Ford and Diego Pacheco have developed into real talents. They've also provided platforms for smaller-weight legends such as Roman Gonzalez and Juan Estrada.
But they also
threw around a lot of money for fighters who didn't move the needle, such as
Danny Jacobs, Maurice Hooker, Tevin Farmer and Demetrius Andrade to name a few.
They entered the market with hundreds of millions to spend and their initial
foray wasn't a total success by any measure. Yes, they have gained an
important foothold in the market. They have become one of the key players, but they have fallen far short of anything resembling dominance, which was one of their stated goals.
Hearn believes that the Ennis signing (in which discussions had been off an on for over five years) is a vital
step for his company in America. Since signing
Boots, Hearn said that several pound-for-pound-level fighters in the U.S. have
contacted him, and he expects to sign a few more over the next year.
And whether that's true or wishful thinking, Hearn is happy
to have another major chip in the U.S. market. Between the lines, he admits to
some past missteps. He acknowledged on Friday that he only wants to make
signings who will or can move the needle for the sport and his company. But will there be more big names after Boots? Will it be a trickle of top
fighters following suit, a geyser, or just empty words from a promoter?
One thing I'm certain of is that we won't know the answer
immediately. But there's always intrigue in the sport. And even in a sparsely
filled press conference on a Friday in Philadelphia, there was a lot of it. The
major players who were there, the fighters, the managers, the promoter, all
recognized that Boots-Crowley could be a significant step to accomplishing their long-held goals, to conquering. A lot will be on the line.
Jaime Munguia was the first fighter who really brought it to Saul
"Canelo" Alvarez since Gennadiy Golovkin's prime. Over the last
half-decade, Canelo's opponents have most often played a glorified game of
peak-a-boo where they remained on the outside, hoping to peck and paw, not
willing to go into Canelo's kitchen. Munguia had no such caution. From the
opening bell, Munguia was determined to go after Canelo, to bring volume with
him and to let his power shots flow. He was there to mix it up.
It
had been so long since we had seen Canelo with such an opponent that Munguia
instantly asked questions of him. Can Canelo handle the volume? Is his chin
still sturdy against a guy throwing big power shots? Would he be able to
maintain a fast pace for 12 rounds?
Munguia was effective in asking those questions of Canelo; however, Canelo answered all of them affirmatively. After the first three rounds where Munguia more than held his own, Canelo started to throw the types of pulverizing counter shots that initially led to his fame in the sport. And in a further turning back of the clock, Canelo wasn't just throwing one shot at a time; he let his hands go in combination.
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| Canelo (right) throwing a right hand Photo courtesy of Esther Lin/Premier Boxing Champions |
Take the knockdown in the fourth round. Canelo dropped Munguia for the first time in his career with a sizzling left hook/right uppercut combination. He even threw a clean-up left hook that didn't land as Munguia was already on his way down. Throughout the fight Canelo was letting his hands go in twos and threes and it was a thrilling reminder of how skilled and dynamic a craftsman he can be. Yes, Canelo had the heavier hands, but he also had significant advantages in punch placement, creativity, and a larger punch arsenal.
Perhaps
the biggest advantage he had in the fight was defense. Canelo was magnificent in catching shots on his arms,
taking a step back to evade big punches, and using head movement. He had a full complement of defensive techniques that he employed to tame an active, aggressive power puncher.
CompuBox
credited Munguia with landing 170/663 punches (25.6%) and 96/328 power punches
(29.3%). And let's take a minute to understand just how many big power shots
that Canelo evaded: over 230 of them! These weren't shots from well out of
range or thrown with terrible technique; Canelo was mostly right in front of
Munguia, who doesn't have bad hand speed, and yet the overwhelming majority of
punches failed to land. It was a stunning defensive display.
But
let's also give Munguia credit. Although he didn't land at a high percentage,
he did certainly land. Connecting with 170 blows is nothing to sniff at; it's almost
100 more than Jermell Charlo landed in Canelo's last fight. And many of these were big
punches from a hard-hitting super middleweight, and not someone moving up from 154
lbs.
Munguia certainly had a case for winning three or four rounds in the fight and he landed some blistering shots over the course of the bout. So, let's also praise Canelo's chin. He took some big bombs throughout the night yet was never in any real trouble. His defense was great, but his sturdy chin insured his preeminence on the night.
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| The two boxers appreciating each other post-fight Photo courtesy of Esther Lin/Premier Boxing Champions |
Overall, I was really entertained by the fight. Both took turns countering and leading. And there were portions of the bout where each one tried to drive the other back. It turned out to be a wonderful showcase for what Canelo can offer in the ring. However, Munguia pushed him; he made Canelo bring out long-dormant sides of his game.
Canelo won by unanimous decision, but it was a competitive fight. Munguia
showed that he has the offensive skills and internal fortitude to become an
important part of the North American boxing landscape. He answered many
questions as well. When the going got tough, he didn't fold or become cautious.
He continued to go right at Canelo; a sign of a real fighter.
I'm not sure if Canelo-Munguia will be remembered decades from now, but let's not let legacy cloud the overall satisfaction from Saturday's fight. Yes, the fighter who was supposed to win, won, and the bout wasn't one of those fights that had any doubt as to who deserved the victory. But boxing is also about entertainment. And Canelo-Munguia had that in spades.
Munguia was out to make a name for himself. Although he ran into a superior talent, he wasn't dissuaded. And Canelo, the old veteran, relished the give-and-take of the combat. He seemed to love being in a fight where he didn't have to go looking on milk cartons for his opponent. It was two guys slugging it out for glory. There were bombs a-flyin', the crowd cheering, and two boxers giving it their best in the ring. In the end, the word that sprang to mind was enjoyment. And we certainly don't use that word enough when it comes to boxing. The fight delivered. There were smiles all around. Job well done to both.
In an all-Mexican showdown that promises to feature a steady supply of power punches, Saul "Canelo" Alvarez (60-2-2, 39 KOs) and Jaime Munguia
(43-0, 34 KOs) square off on Saturday at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. The fight will be
contested for Canelo's undisputed status (all four major title belts) at super middleweight.
From
a stylistic standpoint, the match should deliver the goods. Munguia is a
power-punching, high-volume, aggressive fighter, while Canelo packs the single-shot knockout weapons and large punch arsenal that has made him one of the top fighters in the sport. For Munguia,
27, this is the big fight that he and his fans have been waiting for. Since
establishing himself on the world level at 154-lbs. in 2018, Munguia has faced
a parade of B-level fighters while his team conspicuously turned down
higher-level opportunities against more notable fighters.
Munguia has recently switched trainers, from Erik Morales to Freddie Roach. He's coming off a destructive ninth-round stoppage against John Ryder, where Munguia outperformed Canelo against a common opponent (Canelo beat Ryder by a decision in a pedestrian performance, although he did knock down Ryder once). Canelo, 33, was last in the ring in September, where he dominated undisputed junior middleweight champion Jermell Charlo, winning a wide decision and scoring a knockdown.
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| Saul "Canelo" Alvarez Photo courtesy of Esther Lin/Premier Boxing Champions |
The two main factors when analyzing this matchup are Munguia's volume advantage and his leaky defense, and these two aspects may wind up becoming interrelated on Saturday. Munguia will frequently average 70 or 80 punches a round. Although he has demonstrated a usable jab at points, he's mostly a combination puncher. He often throws three and four-punch combinations and isn't worried if the first or second punch doesn't land. He's looking to probe an opponent's defense with his combinations.
Munguia
throws essentially every punch in the book and has the power to hurt foes with
his straight right, left hook and uppercuts. He can also loop his punches so
even his "straight right" doesn't always appear to come in that
straight, giving him the advantage of landing shots from unusual angles. He's also equally comfortable going to the body or the head.
An
opponent's volume can be a blessing or a curse for counterpuncher. Unlike
Canelo a decade ago, he no longer lets his hands go that much as he has moved up in
weight. He often settles between 30-40 punches per round, and sometimes it's
far less than that. Although his timing is impeccable and his counters are
hard, he isn't going to match Munguia punch-for-punch. Structurally, that
advantage helps Munguia with the judges if he isn't taking huge punishment in
return. The judges will see him more active; he'll be the one making the
fight.
Canelo
is going to have to identify openings and make Munguia pay for his volume. And
this shouldn't be that difficult of an undertaking since every opponent seems
to land flush shots on Munguia. To Munguia's credit, he has demonstrated a
sturdy chin and if he is hurt, like he was in the Derevyanchenko fight, he's shown
strong recuperative powers. So, it will not be enough for Canelo to hurt
Munguia once, or land something hard a couple of times; he will need to do so
on a consistent basis to see the fight go his way. In the rounds where he cannot
land his thudding artillery, expect Munguia to get the benefit from the
judges.
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| Jaime Munguia Photo courtesy of Esther Lin/Showtime |
Of course, Canelo can fight more than one way, and there's no law that says he has to fight as a counterpuncher against Munguia. As Canelo has aged, he's been very effective as a walk-down pressure fighter. I don't think that Munguia will be compliant in allowing that fight to happen consistently, but if Canelo can get Munguia on the back foot through portions of the bout, that will be a great benefit to him; Munguia isn't nearly as effective when boxing off the back foot than when he's going forward.
It's possible that Canelo will try to hold the center of the ring and look for opportunities to sharp shoot as Munguia opens up with combinations. The openings should be there, not because Munguia has bad balance, but he does often overshoot his punches or throw punches from the wrong range. Although he will get his shots home, he'll be missing a lot as well, providing ample opportunity for Canelo to counter. Canelo's head movement and overall defensive technique will be a significant advantage for him in the fight.
Prediction:
As
dynamic as Munguia is offensively, I don't like anyone's chances against Canelo
when giving him ample free shots during a 12-round fight. The only fighter who
in my opinion that has survived that strategy and live to tell about it was
Gennadiy Golovkin, who should have been awarded a least one victory against
Canelo. Golovkin had a superhuman beard, and although Munguia's chin has been
good, he has never faced a level of puncher like Canelo.
I
think that Munguia will pull ahead to an early lead in the fight. He'll feel confident with
his offense and Canelo will take a few rounds to study Munguia, see what's
in front of him and figure out the angles for the counters. By the fourth round
I expect Canelo to start landing his fair share of pulverizing power punches. The middle rounds of the fight are where I believe the bout will get explosive. Munguia
won't want to back down and he will be motivated to return any
punishment that he receives in kind.
But
ultimately, I think that Canelo is too sharp of a puncher and Munguia's defense is
too leaky. There are only so many shots a super middleweight can take from
Canelo. I think that Munguia's skin will start to open up and he'll have issues with facial swelling as the fight progresses. I think that Munguia will start to have problems seeing the punches coming, which will spell the end for him in the fight. I expect the match to be stopped late. Let's call it for the 11th round.
Saul "Canelo" Alvarez TKO 11 Jaime Munguia.
