Monday, December 2, 2024

My IBHOF Ballot

The International Boxing Hall of Fame will announce the 2025 Hall of Fame class on Thursday. As a member of the Boxing Writers Association of America, I had the opportunity to vote for up to five fighters on the Modern Ballot. Below are the four fighters whom I selected. I'm sure that Pacquiao will be voted in without any problems. I'm less than confident that my other three picks will. But I believe that Pongsaklek Wongjongkam, Gilberto Roman and Santos Laciar are certain Hall of Famers. And if they do not make it this year, I hope that they get additional support in the future. If you are unfamiliar with any of them, I encourage you to research their considerable accomplishments in the sport. (For housekeeping purposes, the top-three candidates who receive the most votes will be picked.) 

My ballot

It was a privilege to be involved in the election process. So many fighters on the ballot made such vital contributions to the sport. And although I believe that there are cases to be made for others on the ballot whom I have not selected, I feel very confident that the four I picked deserve the honor of enshrinement.

Adam Abramowitz is the founder and head writer of saturdaynightboxing.com
He's a contributing writer for Ring Magazine, a member of the Ring Magazine Ratings Panel, the Transnational Boxing Rankings Board, and the Boxing Writers Association of America.
snboxing on twitter. SN Boxing on Facebook 

Sunday, November 10, 2024

Saturday Night at the Fights

Matchroom Boxing hosted an evening of pugilism in Philadelphia on Saturday that featured many of their top American boxers. Four were victorious and one would suffer his first defeat. There's a lot to dissect from these performances, so let's jump right in!

Boots vs. Karen

Jaron "Boots" Ennis fought a mandatory defense, and rematch, against Karen Chukhadzhian. The two first met in January 2023, which resulted in a one-sided unanimous decision win for Ennis. The most notable aspect of the fight was that Karen was able to take Boots the distance. In the interim, Karen had done very little to warrant becoming a mandatory challenger for Boots' welterweight title, yet here they were. Would the rematch be any different? 

Actually, it was. Karen was far more aggressive on Saturday, spending significant portions of the fight on his front foot. When they fought last year, Karen was happy to play it safe on the outside, but in the rematch, he was far feistier. 

Boots started off well and really focused on commanding the action with his jab. But as the rounds started to pile up, the same criticisms of Boots in past fights manifested: he sacrificed too much defense for offense, he was loading up on big shots for a knockout, and in a new twist, it looked as if the physicality of the fight was taking a bit of a toll on him (there was a lot of holding and grappling; Karen was deducted a point for holding). 

Boots did score a knockdown in the fifth from a barrage of power punches and he landed plenty of eye-catching shots throughout the fight. To my eyes, the fight was never in doubt for him, but Karen was far from intimidated. During several portions of the back-half of the fight, Karen connected with blistering right hands and left hooks. Although not a puncher, these were clean and impressive shots that exposed Boots' defensive shortcomings. Boots was so concerned with getting the knockout that he wasn't interested in defending what was coming back at him. As a result, he tasted a lot of leather. Boots did win a unanimous decision (119-108, 117-110 and 116-111), but it was far from a clean victory. 

Photo courtesy of Matchroom Boxing

As I've stated in a previous column about Boots, he might happen to have an incredible chin, so we can't say with certainly that he is a knockout waiting to happen. But at the very least, Karen won three and four rounds on two scorecards. That was not an accident of judges being overly generous. The point of boxing is to win, and Boots' porous defense is making it harder for him to be victorious. Boots remains an offensive dynamo, but there are two sides to the sport. 

Boots didn't seem thrilled by his performance in the aftermath of the fight. I think that now he realizes the margins are much thinner at the top levels of boxing. What worked stopping lesser fighters is no longer the same. This is a pivotal moment in his career. Does he want to be a fun action fighter or does he aspire to something more, like greatness? If it's the latter, then there's a lot of work to be done. 

Bam vs. Guevara

Every now and then, you see something so sublime in boxing that you have to check a replay to make sure that your eyes didn't deceive you. In the third round Jesse "Bam" Rodriguez trapped Pedro Guevara in a corner and then Guevara just folded to the canvas in an instant, and the fight was over. What was the shot that landed? What was so forceful? Did Bam slip in a quick uppercut? 

Photo courtesy of Matchroom Boxing

Ringside, a number of the media initially thought that it was a right uppercut that did the damage, which would have been impressive in that it wasn't Bam's dominant back hand, the left. But what actually happened was even more breathtaking. With Guevara right in front of him along the ropes, Bam shifted his weight and momentarily went orthodox to land the right uppercut from that position. It was the backhand, but it was now the right hand from the orthodox stance. In real time, this switch was practically imperceptible, but Bam was so effortless and fluid with his movement. It's another example of Bam having elite footwork in the pocket. 

Guevara was no mug. He had always gone the distance before. His losses had all been by split or majority decision. He has been a rugged contender. And here he was wiped out in the third round. This was next-level stuff by Bam, who was making a junior bantamweight title defense. And however seasoned Guevara might have been, he did not anticipate Bam's final uppercut, nor did he see it coming. He was outfought and outthought by a master boxer. It was thrilling stuff. 

Ford vs. Gonzalez

Raymond Ford made his junior lightweight debut on Saturday against a credible B-level fighter in Orlando Gonzalez. What amazed me about Ford's performance was how his style has morphed from his early years in the sport. During his development fights, he was a classic boxer who used his legs and hand speed. He was not a big puncher and if anything, he was accused of over-moving at times and not sitting down on his shots. 

But something changed with Ford over 2024. In March he was being outboxed by Otabek Kholmatov and Ford made a bold decision to take the fight on the inside. He wound up scoring a memorable 12th-round stoppage to win a world featherweight title. In June, he was being outworked by pressure fighter Nick Ball in the first half of their fight and yet it was Ford who became the pressure fighter in the second half. Although he dropped a razor-thin split decision in that fight, the newfound belief in his inside fighting and power was evident. 

On Saturday he fought Gonzalez as a walk-down power puncher. There was little of the lateral movement or fancy footwork from Ford's earlier career. Instead, Ford was coming in the front door all night behind bombs. He landed two picture-perfect knockdowns with right hooks in the second and eighth rounds. The lead hook in the eighth was so spectacular that I had to resist the urge to stand up and applaud. The knockdown was that sublime. That hook so damaged Gonzalez that he spent the rest of the fight running and holding. He was no longer interested in engaging. 

Photo courtesy of Matchroom Boxing

Ford wound up winning by a virtual shutout on the cards. I thought that his gas tank looked a little better than it had in previous fights. Although his effort may not have been full-throttle every round, he was still piling up points. More impressively, he looked very comfortable with his style, like he had finally found himself in the ring. He may not be a true one-punch knockout guy, but he has enough power and hand speed to trouble anyone at 130 lbs. 

Coe vs. Gallegos

If you ever want to watch a fight where it all goes wrong for a top prospect, you could start here. Khalil Coe was on the fast track at light heavyweight and entered Saturday's fight at 9-0-1 with seven knockouts. In his last three fights, he was a destroyer, ending each bout within two rounds. 

From the opening bell, Coe looked fresh. He had the power and speed advantage over Manuel Gallegos, who had not fought in over a year. In Gallegos' last fight, he was knocked out by Diego Pacheco in four rounds at super middleweight. All of this seemed to be set up to make Coe look good.

Coe was landing some hellacious shots early, but then a funny thing happened: Gallegos wouldn't go down. And then he kept firing back. Hitting Coe with crisp counter right hands and left hooks to the body, Gallegos seemed to be enjoying the slugfest. 

Instead of making adjustments, Coe doubled down on going to war. How was this guy still here? I will try even harder to stop him. But Gallegos kept pressing forward and dropped Coe with a left hook to the body in the fifth. Coe came up firing, which galvanized the crowd. Both exchanged huge shots, but it looked like Coe got the worst of it. 

By the sixth, Coe's legs didn't look like they once did. And Gallegos took control of the fight. A flurry of power punches dropped Coe in the seventh. Additional power punches dropped Coe in the eighth. And Coe was now a shell of himself. Nobody seemed interested in stopping the fight even though Coe was taking a vicious beating. A final left hook to the body dropped Coe in the ninth and the ref finally waved the fight off. 

This fight didn't have to play out the way it did. Although there was no guarantee that Coe would have won if he had chosen to box more and not go to war, he certainly would have had more of a chance. He had been a decorated amateur boxer after all. It wasn't always about power with him. But Coe wound up playing into Gallegos' hands. Coe was certain he would win a war of power punching. 

It was this belief, and a lack of respect for his opponent, that led to his demise. Coe could have tried to make Gallegos earn it the hard way, but there Coe was landing a huge shot and just staying right in the pocket, expecting Gonzalez to hit the canvas, and completely surprised when Gonzalez fired off a blazing counter. This pattern played out throughout the fight. Like Boots' performance, it was an example of a fighter who had developed bad habits. Coe believed too much in his power and not enough in what his opponent could do. He paid the price. 

Williams vs. Garrido

Austin "Ammo" Williams suffered a physically devastating defeat in his last fight against Hamzah Sheeraz, where he was dropped in the 10th and stopped in the 11th. For his comeback fight, he was matched up against little-known Gian Garrido, a fighter who had recently been knocked out in a six-rounder. This was supposed to be a get-well fight for Williams. But, if we are being honest, Ammo... didn't look too well. 

The ledger will show that Williams won Saturday's fight by fifth-round stoppage, and in truth, his power punching really came alive during that round. But prior to that, he looked listless. His legs were ponderous. He struggled to put punches together and at points Garrido was much quicker. At the end, Williams' sharper punching was the difference, but he looked far from a recent middleweight title challenger. 

Williams may need to take some time out of the ring to get back to his best. Saturday was not an issue of ring rust or inactivity. Sometimes a fighter just doesn't look right and I hope that his team was watching his performance closely. He needs a break. 

***

Overall, it was a terrific night at the fights, with much revealed about these boxers. From the frustrating to the sublime, there was so much to absorb, so much talent to watch of all varieties, so much intrigue. It was a wonderful night at the fights, and I was as happy as ever to experience it.

Adam Abramowitz is the founder and head writer of saturdaynightboxing.com
He's a contributing writer for Ring Magazine, a member of the Ring Magazine Ratings Panel, the Transnational Boxing Rankings Board, and the Boxing Writers Association of America.
snboxing on twitter. SN Boxing on Facebook 

Friday, November 8, 2024

United Boxing Podcast

I appeared on this week's United Boxing Podcast with David Greisman and Darren Rees. We discussed this weekend's upcoming fights, including Boots, Bam, Keyshawn, and more. I've attached the Spotify link below, but it is available on most streaming services. 

Spotify link

Adam Abramowitz is the founder and head writer of saturdaynightboxing.com
He's a contributing writer for Ring Magazine, a member of the Ring Magazine Ratings Panel, the Transnational Boxing Rankings Board, and the Boxing Writers Association of America.
snboxing on twitter. SN Boxing on Facebook 

Friday, October 25, 2024

Robert Garcia on Bam Rodriguez

Robert Garcia has been with Jesse Rodriguez almost from the beginning. The renown trainer brought Jesse to his gym when the fighter was just 15. Immediately, Garcia recognized "Bam" Rodriguez's profound talent. From the footwork to the punch variety to the poise, Rodriguez stood out even in a gym full of great fighters. 

Rodriguez (20-0, 13 KOs) defends his junior bantamweight world title on November 9th against Pedro Guevara (42-4-1, 22 KOs) in Philadelphia. 2024 has already seen Bam stop the legendary Juan Estrada, but he did taste the canvas for the first time in his professional career during that fight. Should Bam get past Guevara, he is looking to become undisputed at 115 lbs. in 2025. 

I spoke with Robert Garcia about his relationship with Bam, Bam's development as a fighter, the Estrada fight, and what Bam needs to continue to work on in the gym. 

Jesse "Bam" Rodriguez and Robert Garcia
Photo courtesy of Robert Garcia

This interview has been edited. 

How did you initially meet Jesse?

We first met when he was 11 or 12. I was training Nonito Donaire and we had a fight in San Antonio. Jesse jumped in the ring with Donaire to do some shadowboxing. So, we met and took a picture. But nothing happened there. 

In 2016, his older brother, Joshua Franco, came out of the amateurs. My son told me about Franco and Hector Tanajara from San Antonio and he said that they were very good fighters. So, we went to San Antonio and approached them. And we signed them with Golden Boy Promotions. 

Franco told me, you know I have a little brother and that he is pretty good.  Joshua reminded me that we had met Bam a few years ago. And on his recommendation, we brought Bam to California to train with us. Bam was 15.  

What did you see from Bam that immediately impressed you? 

His talent. His skills. His footwork really meant a lot to me. I love fighters with great footwork. One of my favorite fighters was Orlando Canizales. I used to love his footwork. I tried to do a little of his footwork when I was fighting. 

Bam was beautiful at what he did and from day one. We knew that this kid was going to be special. 

Let’s talk about his footwork. It's very purposeful. It’s not just moving for the sake of moving. It’s subtle shifts in the pocket, finding angles to land shots. How did he discover that ability, because that's a very unusual skill set for a young fighter? 

That’s true. But that’s something natural that he has. Obviously, it’s something that he practices a lot in the gym, in training and in sparring. We asked him to keep using that footwork and then take those steps to convert a good hook or a good uppercut. It was adding a little bit to his talent. It’s something that we continue to practice every day and I think that’s why he's getting better and better. 

You have a strong gym culture at the Robert Garcia Boxing Academy. I’m sure that Jesse wanted to fight the top guys when he got there, but I'm also sure that you had to protect him a little bit in that he was just 16. What was the process like for preparing him for the pros? 

We had to be careful with who he was sparring with at 15 and 16 because he was just a kid. He didn’t turn pro until 17. He could make anybody look bad, but we still had to be careful because of the strength of the grown men at the gym. He was always a small kid. We turned him pro at 108 and he was very, very small. We couldn’t find any pros in my gym who were his size, so he always sparred with younger kids, the amateurs, stuff like that. 

You are on record years ago as saying that he was already the best fighter in the gym. How was that received by other fighters in your gym and what was your thought process behind saying that publicly?

Obviously, I have guys who are bigger names because of the weight classes, Vergil Ortiz, Jose Ramirez, people like that. I have Jose Valenzuela who just became champion. The weight divisions do make a big difference. 

But when it comes talent, this kid is just special. These other guys are incredible. But Jesse is just different. Every fighter in the gym knows it. He’s the special one. 

What have you been working on to develop from when he turned pro until now? 

It’s reminding him what we’ve been working on. I don’t have to correct too much. I don’t have to teach him too much. A lot of it is just natural. It’s not really about teaching him. It’s just reminding him that he’s the best, that nobody is better than you. It’s just working at the gym every day. 

Was there a point during Bam's development when you knew he was ready for the world level? 

I don’t think there was a particular time or fight where I knew he was ready. I think it was from the beginning. When he started his career as a professional, I knew that it would happen soon. I didn’t think it would take that long. I didn’t think we would need 30 professional fights to get there. Especially fighting at the smaller weight classes, it wouldn't take that long. 

The kid was so talented. The plan was for him to become champion originally at 108. He was scheduled to fight for the title on my brother Mikey’s card against Sandor Martin. But that fight fell through. And then two months later, we got a call from Matchroom asking us if Jesse was crazy enough to jump two divisions to fight Carlos Cuadras. And I said, yes, he’s ready. And the rest is history. 

In that there aren’t a lot of great 108, 112, or even 115-lb. fighters in America, has it been difficult getting him quality sparring?

In my gym I have guys in every weight class all the way to 160 and 168. I don’t have a lot of guys at 108, but I have a lot of top guys at the smaller weights, so he gets a lot of good sparring. We are also sparring junior featherweights and featherweights, and he has no problems sparring those guys.

A few years ago, Bam was on a great run, beating Carlos Cuadras and knocking out Srisaket Sor Rungvisai. Then he had fights with Israel and Cristian Gonzalez where things didn’t go his way at times and he seemed frustrated at points. What were the learning experiences from the two Gonzalez fights? 

We have to be careful about taking fights that don’t interest Bam. The Israel Gonzalez fight, the one on the Canelo card, he didn’t want that fight. I thought after knocking out Sor Rungvisai that it would be the perfect opportunity to be the co-main event to Canelo, but he didn’t want it. That didn’t motivate him, especially against a guy that nobody really knew. 

So, now we’ve learned that for him to perform, to mentally prepare himself to give his best in the ring, he has to have a meaningful fight. He told me before his last fight, before Estrada was confirmed, that if it’s not El Gallo [Estrada] next, then he didn’t want to fight. We already had a date for him, but he said if it wasn’t El Gallo then he was going to sit out until the right fight came along. 

This fight coming up, against Guevara, he has to take the fight because it’s his mandatory and the WBC could potentially strip him if he doesn’t fight. All he wants to do is unify. The other champions aren’t available right now. We had to take this fight. But he wants meaningful fights. The plan next year is for two fights. And he wants it to be against the two champions at 115 lbs. 

As mandatories go, Pedro Guevara is a very good fighter. He’s had four losses during his career and all have been by split or majority decision. He’s very smart in the ring. He never beats himself. What are your thoughts about him? 

I think Guevara’s a great fighter. He puts up a good fight. And that’s why Bam is training hard. In Bam’s mind, he wants to become undisputed next year. That’s his goal, so he’s taking this fight very seriously. I think Guevara will put up a great fight and he will bring the best out of Jesse. 

Let’s go back to the Estrada fight. Bam did a lot of good things that night. He had that memorable knockout with the uppercut in the seventh round. But he did get knocked down in the fight. What were your overall impressions of his performance against Estrada? 

Going into the fight, I thought that it was going to be more difficult than what it turned out to be. I think Estrada’s experience and beautiful skills and style…I thought the fight was going to be more difficult and challenging. But from round one, I noticed the domination. Bam was having fun. 

But he was being a little careless after he dropped Estrada in the fourth. I kept reminding him during one of the breaks, after the fifth, I said you can’t get too careless. This guy is still dangerous. This guy has experience. And then when the bell rang for the sixth, that’s when he got dropped. 

He wasn’t hurt. He looked at me and smiled. And after the bell rang in the sixth, I said, what did I tell you? He said, you were right. I said, that’s OK. Don’t get careless because he’s very good in the later rounds. 

And we still had half the fight to go. Good thing he knocked him out in the seventh because we had so much of the fight left. It could have been different, where Estrada’s experience could have become a big factor. 

Were you concerned about the knockdown? 

No. Right away I saw the way he smiled. The way he looked at us. He laughed. I wasn’t concerned at all. I remember when my brother [Mikey] was knocked down by Rocky Martinez. He got up and looked at me and smiled. It was one of those times. These things happen. It’s a good thing that it happened to Bam, because he had never been dropped. Now he’s gotten dropped and he knows what it feels like. 

What are some of the things that you are working on with Jesse for him to become the best version of himself in the ring?

We are working on his defense, his reflexes. When it comes to making his opponents miss, there are some punches that still land. Especially for Guevara, who has seen Bam’s last fight against El Gallo, I’m not saying they have the same style, but they are both right-handed and Guevara has seen the right hand that landed and dropped Bam. So, I’m sure he’s going to look for that right hand. 

Not that Bam gets hit with a lot of punches, but when he gets a little too careless, a little too comfortable, he doesn’t worry about making his opponents miss. So, we are working on that and we continue to work on that every day. 

Adam Abramowitz is the founder and head writer of saturdaynightboxing.com
He's a contributing writer for Ring Magazine, a member of the Ring Magazine Ratings Panel, the Transnational Boxing Rankings Board, and the Boxing Writers Association of America.
snboxing on twitter. SN Boxing on Facebook 

Sunday, October 13, 2024

Opinions and Observations: Beterbiev-Bivol

After Saturday's Artur Beterbiev-Dmitry Bivol match, which was more interesting than exciting, neither fighter seemed too pleased with his performance. Beterbiev, who was awarded the victory by majority decision, claimed that he didn't box particularly well, which is important because the fight primarily featured boxing instead of brawling or power displays. Bivol might have thought that he won, but he was resigned to accepting the judges' scores. He understood how tough the fight was. 

I scored the fight a draw. That's how it played out round-by-round on my scorecard and I thought that the draw reflected the action (or inaction) of the entire fight. To me the match was a perfect example of a stalemate, where neither fighter was able to assert himself on a consistent-enough basis. 

Beterbiev (right) and Bivol exchanging
Photo courtesy of Mikey Williams/Top Rank

But this will not be a rant at the scores, which were 114-114, 115-113 and 116-112, with the latter two scores favoring Beterbiev, who became the "undisputed" light heavyweight champion with the win. I used the quotes in the previous sentence because technically Beterbiev is undisputed now, but I'm certainly not sure that he won Saturday's fight.

The bout featured plenty of swing rounds, ones were not a ton happened (the third round) and others that had consequential action from both (the seventh). A whole range of scores were acceptable in scoring the fight, but I would have preferred it if more rounds contained real drama, instead of the familiar "someone had to win it" refrain. 

I was surprised by the tactics of both, and not necessarily in a positive way. I thought that Beterbiev was a little too slow to start applying pressure. At 39, he fought like he had some concerns with his gas tank. Although he was the fighter who closed stronger, that might be because he really conserved energy in the fight's first half. And I will have none of the talk that he paced himself perfectly, because when the final scores were announced, I don't believe that he could confidently believe that he won. That there was doubt speaks to the questionable success of his tactics. 

To Bivol's credit or detriment, he fought far more aggressively than I expected. Until the championship rounds, he spent almost as much of the fight on the front foot as he did in retreat. In fact, Bivol might have paid the price for being too aggressive. When he finally unloaded with gripping combinations, he often found a hard counter shot in return that stopped him in his tracks. I think in particular that happened in the 7th and 10th rounds. 

In a theme that appears often in boxing, the fighter who was more aggressive was given a lot of credit, irrespective of how effective he was. Beterbiev was clearly the one who came forward on a more consistent basis in the final three rounds. I thought that the 10th was a toss-up which I shaded to Bivol, but I had Beterbiev winning 11 and 12. That was the difference between drawing and losing on my card, and it was decisive for the judges, who favored Beterbiev down the stretch. Yes, each round does count the same, but in terms of the broader narrative of the fight, there can be no doubt that Beterbiev was the fresher fighter at the conclusion of the match. He had an extra level at the end, where Bivol did not.

Overall, I was a little disappointed in the fight. I was looking for one of the fighters to make a definitive statement and absent that, I was hoping for some thrilling action, but that didn't really happen either, with the exception of a pulsating seventh round. Beterbiev played it a little too safe in my opinion and Bivol was a little too weary by the end of the fight.  

Furthermore, there were few singular moments to remember from the fight. Yes, Bivol had some instances where he landed blistering left hook-straight right-hand combinations and Beterbiev had a couple of thudding counter right uppercuts and right hands, but there was little carnage, few periods of mastery, and a lot of tentative moments from both. 

The two fighters tangling on the inside
Photo courtesy of Mikey Williams/Top Rank

Although I have admired the championship reigns of Beterbiev and Bivol, Saturday's fight felt anti-climactic for me. I can't say that Beterbiev is the definitive light heavyweight of his era. But I also can't buy into Bivol's superior technical brilliance, especially how he faded in a fight that was mostly a boxing match. Although he is the first opponent to go the distance with Beterbiev, I'm guessing that moral victory doesn't feel particularly sweet for Bivol. For someone who has prided himself on being a champion, he certainly didn't close like a champ. And he left enough openings for the score to be in doubt.  

Bivol's defense was still very good on the night, but getting hit with 20% or so of Beterbiev's shots (which is still a very low connect percentage) is not the same as getting hit with someone else's 20%. Bivol somehow needed to be even sharper. 

Surprisingly, Beterbiev's speed wasn't a big disadvantage. He was able to get in range enough. But he rarely landed his best power shots. It seems that he made a clear decision to rely on touch shots that sacrificed power for speed. Despite the victory, Beterbiev didn't look like the big bad wolf in the ring. He did have Bivol on the run at the end of the fight and that did help him win it, but he didn't have too many signature moments. The judges felt that he was a little more consistent throughout the fight. You or I may not believe that, but that's less important right now. He struggled. He persevered. Some felt he had done just enough. 

At 39 and overcoming a slew of recent injuries, I wouldn't expect Beterbiev to be back in the ring anytime soon. And I don't think that he has too many big fights left. When the pressure fighter can't do it for 12 rounds, when the power puncher isn't having the same effect that he used to, the signs of decline may soon become even more apparent. And Beterbiev's aura has been a vital part of his success. His relentlessness has caused many opponents to make mistakes, to burn out, or to help in defeating themselves. If his intimidation factor has lessened, that can only embolden opponents. 

As for Bivol, he certainly has years ahead of him at the top levels of boxing, but I don't think that his speed on Saturday was what it once was either. The guy who defanged Canelo controlled the ring far better than the fighter who was in the ring on Saturday. And Beterbiev is many things, but he is not faster on his feet than Canelo, nor does he have faster hands. Yet Bivol struggled more on Saturday. Size does matter and so does Beterbiev's talent, but I can only remember a handful of big shots that Canelo landed whereas Beterbiev scored with shots more frequently. That Beterbiev was even in range points to a deficiency from Bivol; either his tactics were off, or his speed has lessened. In a perfect world, I don't think that Bivol wanted as many exchanges as what happened on Saturday. 

With so many high-profile fights this year, and others that have featured superior entertainment value, I won't dwell on Beterbiev-Bivol for too long. I will applaud both for making it happen. It was a consequential matchup, one of the best that could have been made in the sport, but the quality of the fight didn't rival its importance. I wanted Saturday to be a confirmation of greatness, but it turned out to be too risk-averse from both. So perhaps two great fighters neutralized the other. This potential reality always existed; it's just not what the public wanted to see. 

To me, this remains the Beterbiev and Bivol era. And if they want to settle it for good, that's fine. And if not, we will move on. They tried. They didn't fully succeed. That's the sport too. They both did some great things in the ring on Saturday, but it wasn't enough from this vantage point. Neither fully sold out for the win. They didn't leave it all in the ring. And however history remembers them, that fact should not be forgotten. 

Adam Abramowitz is the founder and head writer of saturdaynightboxing.com
He's a contributing writer for Ring Magazine, a member of the Ring Magazine Ratings Panel, the Transnational Boxing Rankings Board, and the Boxing Writers Association of America.
snboxing on twitter. SN Boxing on Facebook  

Monday, October 7, 2024

Beterbiev-Bivol: Preview and Prediction

The most significant light heavyweight fight in generations takes place on Saturday between Artur Beterbiev (20-0, 20 KOs) and Dmitry Bivol (23-0, 12 KOs) in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. The fight will be for undisputed status at 175 lbs. and the winner will emerge on the shortlist as one of the best of his time. For the last truly undisputed light heavyweight in the sport, we'd have to go back all the way to Michael Spinks in the '80s, so the winner of Saturday's fight will be in rarified air.   

Perfect Opponents 

If you were to draw up a hypothetical perfect opponent to beat Dmitry Bivol, Arthur Beterbiev would be as close to ideal as possible. Beterbiev, with the 100% knockout rate, does not need to land a lot of shots to stop fighters, which is important because Bivol doesn't get hit frequently. Similarly, Beterbiev is not reliant on one specific punch, which makes it tougher for Bivol to gear his defense to protecting himself against a lone knockout weapon. And if Beterbiev can get someone hurt, he can close. Bivol has been hurt before by Joe Smith and hit with enormous shots by Canelo Alvarez, but he was never close to being stopped. If anyone can stop Bivol at 175 lbs., Beterbiev is the guy. 

The converse of this matchup is also true. Bivol is the perfect type of fighter to beat Beterbiev. He has exceptional feet and is faster on the outside than Beterbiev. He can score with shots and can get out of range well. He has a terrific jab that allows him to win rounds while minimizing risk. Perhaps most importantly, Bivol has the temperament to face a relentless slugger like Beterbiev; he doesn't care if he stinks a fight out. Bivol isn't concerned with wowing the crowd. He is there to win and he will try to accomplish that by any means necessary. He's not in the business of giving his opponents a lot of shots at him and he's not interested in trading. He's there to land and leave. 

Beterbiev (left) and Bivol face-off at the kickoff presser
Photo courtesy of Queensbury Promotions

Beterbiev's Age 

On fight night Beterbiev will be 39 years old, six years older than Bivol. 39 is old in boxing, but not necessarily disqualifying, especially at the higher weights. Archie Moore was light heavyweight champion at 45. Bernard Hopkins was champ at 49. And another point in Beterbiev's favor is the relatively small number of professional rounds that he's had. He still hasn't hit 100 professional rounds (just 98). Compare that to Bivol, who even at a significantly younger age, has almost 100 more pro rounds (190). So just how much is age a factor in the fight?  

Despite Beterbiev's expert ability to make quick work of his opponents, I believe that it would be a mistake to consider him well-preserved. Beterbiev has dropped out of or delayed several fights over the past five years, including this one. Recent physical issues have involved his knee, his jaw and his shoulder. These are the types of things that happen as fighters age; they start to break down. Beterbiev enters this match after fighting in January, which for him is a lot of activity. This will be his first time fighting twice in a calendar year since 2021. In his last five years he has had the following number of fights: 0, 2, 1, 1 and now 2. It's possible for fighters to get old overnight, especially ones who are inactive and have had recent injuries.   

Each Has a Lost Art 

If there are two frustrations I have with modern boxers in the ring, it's that so few can fight effectively on the inside and hardly anyone knows how to stink a fight out and win. In this fight, Beterbiev (the former) and Bivol (the latter) really understand these dynamics of the sport. In close, Beterbiev varies the pace and power of his shots. He'll mix in touch shots with massive artillery. He goes to the body and the head. He knows how to position his body to get throwing angles while minimizing those of his opponents. In the trenches, his footwork is often terrific.  

And Bivol will try his very best to ensure that none of those attributes from Beterbiev will manifest in the fight. He has the agility to move for 12 rounds and even if he's not throwing or taking a round off, he knows not to put himself at risk. Now there are many opponents who can minimize risk but not necessarily win their big fights. However, Bivol not only wins fights, but they are rarely close. Although Bivol has won tons of decisions in his fights, I don't think that any of them were undeserved. Yes, he faded late against Craig Richards and had to deal with Canelo's magnetism as it relates to judges, but I don't think that those fights were ever in serious doubt with an unbiased set of eyes. If Bivol needs to fight negatively, he can, and can still win. 

The Key Factor

The fight doesn't start, in my opinion, until Beterbiev can hurt Bivol. Up to that point, I would expect Bivol to win rounds based on volume, hand speed and ring generalship. It's not that Beterbiev is a bad boxer, not by any means. In fact, he has been mischaracterized as a one-dimensional slugger for far too long. Beterbiev possesses several tremendous boxing attributes. He can lead and counter. He can hurt an opponent with several weapons. His body shots are pulverizing. He has a counter right hook to the side of the head that seems to land on everyone. Although his foot speed has been criticized, he can cut off the ring really well. He can also expertly turn opponents on the ropes.  

And although all of the above is true, he just isn't the boxer that Bivol is. The speed advantage is real in this fight. But it's not just about athleticism, Bivol knows how to control the ring with his movements. He glides effortlessly. He can go laterally either way, circle, or move in and out. He doesn't need to plant his feet to land punches and he rarely sticks around after throwing. He's one of the most elusive fighters in this era.  

I just don't see Beterbiev beating Bivol by out-boxing him. But Beterbiev can certainly turn the tide with a boxing move. That practiced counter right hook could be the shot. Maybe it will be his sledgehammer jab. Boxing won't win Beterbiev the fight, but it may be the entry point for him to do so. 

If and when Beterbiev hurts Bivol, then we will see all we need to know about Bivol's recuperative powers and if Beterbiev can finish an opponent as hard to find as Bivol. The only frame of reference is Bivol in the Joe Smith fight, where Bivol was hurt late in that fight at the end of a round. He needed more than a round to recover his bearings. But Smith just couldn’t land the final blow. And in truth, despite having a rocked opponent in front of him, Smith didn't get close. Beterbiev is certainly more well-rounded offensively than Smtih, and he will need to be to get Bivol down and possibly out.   

Prediction: 

This fight could certainly go many ways, but I can't get past the fact that Bivol doesn't care about style points. That's the singular attribute that makes me side with him in this matchup. It's not that he knows how to stink out a fight; it's that he has a willingness to do so. The crowd booing won't bother him one bit.  

I would certainly hate a sport that had 15 champions who all knew how to stink out a fight against a top opponent, but I can definitely appreciate one champ who can and will. There's a beauty in it. Floyd was great at it. So was Hopkins. They won fights that often weren't in doubt and yet sometimes it would be a challenge to recall any memorable punches that they landed. Their level of control was that comprehensive. I believe that Bivol is in this category.  

But even the great Floyd and the great Hopkins had rough nights, fights they could have lost, and with Hopkins, fights that he did lose. Every style can be gotten to. Every fighter can be beaten. So even as I marvel at Bivol's athleticism, technical prowess and grace in the ring, he's a short, clubbing right hand away from being Beterbiev's 21st KO victim. And let's never forget that the risk Beterbiev presents in this fight will be real in every second of the match. Bivol cannot make too many mistakes and expect to win.  

I think that Bivol will win by decision, but he will have to survive one or two moments of genuine peril, and those moments will make for a riveting fight. Beterbiev is too skilled to go 12 rounds without landing something consequential. I just don't know if he has the speed to capitalize on those moments. It's one thing landing something big on Bivol, but can Beterbiev find the right combination of shots to get Bivol out of the fight? I have my concerns. It's certainly possible that Bivol hits the canvas on Saturday, but I do expect him to hear the final bell. Let's say that Bivol wins 10 rounds to 2 or 9 rounds to 3, but no one will regret watching the fight.  

Dmitry Bivol defeats Artur Beterbiev via wide decision. 10 rounds to 2 or 9 rounds to 3. 

Adam Abramowitz is the founder and head writer of saturdaynightboxing.com
He's a contributing writer for Ring Magazine, a member of the Ring Magazine Ratings Panel, the Transnational Boxing Rankings Board, and the Boxing Writers Association of America.
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