Adrien
Broner (30-1, 22 KOs) and Shawn Porter (25-1-1, 16 KOs) clash on Saturday night
in an intriguing battle at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas. Featuring two former champions, the fight will take place at a 144-lb.
catchweight, a source of controversy in the build-up to the match. As recently at 2013, Broner held a welterweight title and once
weighed in at 146.5 lbs. against Paulie Malignaggi. Porter started out his
career fighting mostly in the 150s before moving to the welterweight division.
The 144 lbs. will his lightest weight since 2011.
Weight
aside, this matchup features two boxer-punchers who can do a variety of things
in the ring. In terms of style, Porter has been chameleon-like throughout his
career but he has most recently opted to be a pressure fighter. Using his
athleticism, especially foot speed, and physicality, he found the right formula
to win a title. However, last year he was bettered by the sharpshooter Kell
Brook and lost his belt. Broner has bullied people on the inside and also has
fought as counterpuncher. His lone loss was a decision to Marcos Maidana in
2013. With his unique combination of pressure, high
punch volume and odd-angled shots, Maidana was able to knock Broner down twice.
On
paper, both fighters have the style to give the other one significant
difficulties but how will that play out in the ring? Which one will make
key adjustments? Who has learned from past missteps? It's a fascinating matchup
and one where a strong case could be made for either boxer to prevail. Below
will be the keys to the fight. My prediction will be at the end of the article.
1. The
catchweight.
The
144-lb. catchweight for this fight was instituted on Broner's behalf. Since his
loss to Maidana, he has campaigned closer to the junior welterweight limit.
From Broner's perspective, the hope is that Porter would struggle to take off
the last three pounds, leading to lesser effectiveness in the ring. On
Friday, Porter made weight on his first attempt. Although that doesn't answer
the question of how Porter will look on Saturday, at least we know that he
didn't have to burn off three pounds in a sauna after his first attempt to
weigh in. He didn't appear gaunt at the weigh in or show any outward signs of
struggling to make the catchweight limit.
For all
we know, Porter could still have had difficulty making weight. Or,
perhaps Porter was fine with 144. He started his pro career fighting at 165.5
lbs. and it's been remarkable that a boxer in his athletic prime can keep
coming down in weight. Ultimately, we just don't know how much of a factor
Porter's weight will play in the fight but it's certainly a key
variable that could help determine its outcome.
There's
another reason why the catchweight may have been put into place. Broner has only
faced one puncher at welterweight, and he was floored twice. Immediately after
the Maidana fight, he dropped down a division. Perhaps his team decided that he
was just too small for 147 and/or his chin couldn't take shots from a real
welterweight. Brush aside Porter's ability to make weight for a moment, maybe
the hopeful negation of his power was the real reason why Broner wanted the
catchweight.
2. Who
wins on the inside?
Both
Broner and Porter have achieved some of their biggest wins by fighting on the
inside. However, they have massively different styles at close range. In the trenches, Broner can incorporate his entire offensive arsenal, including a
blistering right uppercut. Here, his combinations often flow seamlessly and he's
particularly skilled at parrying shots or using his arms and elbows to negate
his opponents' attack. He's also more than willing to take a shot to open up
his own opportunities. He'll give his opponent his body while he goes to work
on offense. If the action gets too intense, he is very adept at clinching and holding.
Porter
likes to bullrush his opponents, using pressure to create angles for his
punches. Relying on his fast footwork and physicality, he tries to drive
opponents back to the ropes. There, he'll use quick lateral movement to go side-to-side on his opponent, working the left hook to the body and then moving
over to throw overhand rights and short right hands to the head. Porter mugs
and mauls on the inside but he also does considerable damage with clean blows.
Many
have compared Porter's aggression to that of Maidana's. There are some notable
similarities. They both can be relentless on attack and use pressure to back
their opponents to the ropes. Porter is the faster of the two in closing the distance on the inside but Maidana throws more
unconventional punches. It's this last distinction where the comparison breaks
down. Maidana shoots some right hands from the other end of the arena as well
as uppercuts from the floor. Opponents often don't anticipate these shots.
Porter's movements and attack are more
traditional. He's quick but he doesn't have Maidana's improvisational gifts. Broner
will have plenty of opportunities to counter and trade on the inside.
Both
fighters could find glory or dismay on the inside. Porter
could certainly outwork Broner and wear him down. However, Porter's sometimes
reckless aggression will leave him open for whichever clean punches that Broner
wants to land. It's a toss-up as to which one will prevail in close quarters
but the winner on the inside will most likely hear his name called at the end
of the fight.
3.
Broner's sharpshooting.
In
Porter's only loss as a pro, he was stymied by Kell Brook's clean
counterpunching. With counter jabs, left hooks and right hands, Brook
maintained his poise at close range and landed enough big shots to win on the
scorecards. Although Broner doesn't have Brook's reach, he certainly has his
array of offensive weapons. Much will depend on how accurate Broner is in the
ring. If he's on, he can frustrate Porter with well-timed counters and hit him
with flashy shots.
If
Broner can't consistently time Porter of if he loses his cool in response to Porter's
pressure, he will have a much harder time in pulling out the win. Broner
possesses the talent and skills to land cleanly on Porter on the inside but the
question is one of execution. We've seen Broner sleepwalk through portions of
fights before and if he's not sharp with his counterattack, he will find
himself in an uphill battle to victory.
4.
Porter's motor.
One way
to beat Broner is to outwork him. Broner has never fought three minutes a round
and likes to engage at his own leisurely pace. Maidana's high work rate and pressure made Broner fight
at a much faster clip than he was used to, which led to mistakes. But it's not
just Maidana; Broner has been outworked by a number of opponents during parts
of his fights.
At his
best, Porter beats down opponents with aggression and pressure. However, he
has fallen into mid-round lulls against Devon Alexander and Brook. He
likes to start off with a flurry and can close strong but there are gaps in his
work rate. In addition, he'll often get too wild and spend more time grappling
and mauling instead of landing clean blows. Porter must keep his work rate up
and maintain pressure throughout the fight; however, he needs to control his
aggression somewhat to ensure that he actually wins rounds. In short, he needs
to make sure that his aggression is effective. Porter's physicality will only
work on Saturday if it leads to clean punching. If not, much of his effort will
be wasted.
5.
Power.
Let's
ignore the statistics here. Broner has a 69% KO rate and Porter is at 59%, both
good numbers. However, Porter has knocked out only one world-level opponent
(Malignaggi) and Broner has yet to score a KO at 140 or above. I'm not
dismissing either fighter's power but I don't think of either as a true
knockout artist.
However,
they both can land sharp, damaging punches. Porter can be merciless to the body
and really digs in with his left hook and straight right hand. Broner features
very creative combinations. Often, his third
or fourth punch in a combination will be the most destructive one of a
sequence. He can hurt fighters with his right uppercut, left hook or short
right hand.
For
this fight, the question most likely won't be who will score the knockout but
whose power will dictate the action of the fight. Will Broner's combinations on
the inside be enough to stop Porter from rushing in? Will Porter's body work
force Broner to try to win by boxing on the outside? And, how long will it
take to make these adjustments? Saturday's power battle will determine how the
fight plays out in the ring. If neither can be hurt by the other guy's best
shots, we might be in for a fun phone booth war.
Prediction:
I think
that the outcome of the fight will be determined by which boxer can
consistently land the cleaner punches on the inside. I see this bout as very
evenly-matched but I side with Broner here. I believe that he has the necessary
tools and the type of wide offensive arsenal to squeak out a decision over Porter.
If the fight gets choppy in the inside, Broner's more than comfortable grappling and holding. But Broner must be careful in close quarters; he will have
to tie up if he gets stuck on the ropes, the one area of the ring where Porter
has a clear advantage.
As they did in the Porter-Brook fight, the judges will have to watch the action closely to
determine which punches actually land and which ones are legitimate, scoring
shots. Porter will maul away on Broner's arms and shoulders but I think that
the cleaner punches will come from Broner's counterpunching. I expect this to
be a close bout with several potential swing rounds. Ultimately, the more
eye-catching shots will come from Broner in a seven-rounds-to-five type of
fight.
Adrien
Broner defeats Shawn Porter by split decision.
Adam Abramowitz is the head writer and founder of saturdaynightboxing.com.
He is also a member of the Transnational Boxing Rankings Board.
@snboxing on twitter, SN Boxing on Facebook
Contact Adam at saturdaynightboxing@hotmail.com
