It's no
secret that many boxing fans have latched onto Keith Thurman over the last few
years. The undefeated welterweight from Florida features a dazzling knockout
percentage (81%), exuberance in spades, the desire for greatness and a
refreshing honesty in interviews. At 26, Thurman has become one of the jewels
of manager Al Haymon's stable. He's on the precipice of becoming a major
star in boxing. However, there may be a serious problem: has he plateaued?
Although
Thurman has been elevated to a "full" champion at 147 lbs. by one of
the sanctioning bodies, in truth, he hasn't faced the best in the division.
Mayweather, Pacquiao, Bradley, Brook and Porter have all proven themselves against better
opponents (Amir Khan has faced a similar level of fighter that Thurman has at
the weight). Even though Thurman has plied his trade against only the
"B-level" at welterweight, he has been stunned numerous times in the
ring. Diego Chaves hurt him early in their fight, Jesus Soto Karass rocked him
in the first round and on Saturday, Luis Collazo almost knocked him down with a
body shot in the fifth round. Although Soto Karass and Chaves are solid-enough
punchers, Collazo is no one's definition of a heavy hitter. Certainly, any
fighter if hit with the right shot could get dazed or stunned, but Thurman has
yet to face a top puncher in the division. This is a cause for concern.
In another
notable trend, Thurman's true "one-punch" power – his nickname is
"One Time" – seems to have deserted him as his competition has
improved. He's had only one true knockout in his last five fights (two fighters also refused to
answer the bell between rounds). In part, this development can be
attributed to a stylistic change. Instead of winging power shots with reckless abandon on
offense, Thurman is now more reliant on his boxing skills and athleticism. In addition, he seems less inclined to take risks in the ring. He
was content against Leonard Bundu and Collazo to circle the ring, box at
moments and limit prolonged exchanges.
However,
there are many positives to take from Thurman's development as a fighter. Working with Dan
Birmingham, a truly excellent trainer, Thurman has shown a willingness to learn and he has made several technical improvements since his HBO debut in 2012. His footwork
and balance have become plusses. He is now far less out-of-position when
he throws power shots. Correspondingly, he leaves fewer opportunities to be
countered. His right hand has become more
compact and he no longer telegraphs the shot. In addition, he has worked
on making his jab a real weapon. He also protects his chin much better. These advances are not insignificant.
But,
fans initially fell in love with a crude and fearless slugger, a guy who would
take a big shot to land one. Thurman craved knockouts. Now, he seems satisfied
with wins of any stripe. Sure, he would like to impress but these days he fights
similarly to a favorite would in the early rounds of the NCAA college
basketball tournament, "Survive and Advance." Big fights can only
come for Thurman if he keeps winning. In Haymon's crowded welterweight stable,
a bad loss could stall his momentum for a prolonged period. Maybe Thurman is just executing a smart
business strategy as he waits for larger opportunities but what endeared him to boxing fans was that he
understood what they wanted; power and vicious stoppages. Boxing fans have seen
enough businessmen take over the sport in recent years; they hoped that Thurman
was cut from a more entertaining cloth. In his current
iteration, Thurman isn't growing his fan base.
Now,
much of the romanticism surrounding his potential is gone. He no longer seems
to be a force of nature. Thurman's already proven to be vulnerable in the ring
against limited fighters. His opting for caution and intelligence in the ring
has deprived fans of seeing the type of devil-may-care attitude that led to his
initial support.
The
jury is still out. Since Saturday's fight with Collazo, I've had to recalibrate
my opinion on Thurman. I once believed that with his power that he could be a
threat to any welterweight in boxing. However, I'm not sure if that version of
Thurman still exists. A true knockout puncher needs to stay in the pocket long
enough to trade bombs. He has to trust his chin and take the necessary risks to
land the big shot. In short, it's possible that Thurman's temperament has
changed. And certainly, Thurman's propensity to get hurt could come into
play against a rugged body puncher like Porter or a sharpshooter like Brook.
However,
I remain a Thurman enthusiast for one important reason: his character. Certain
fighters have intangibles that continually propel them to victory (Bradley is
also an example). Thurman's lifestyle and conduct outside of the ring afford
him every possible chance of performing at his best in the squared circle. He has never had problems making weight and he has stayed far away from the police blotter. That
he has recovered from getting hurt speaks to his conditioning and
determination. In addition, it takes a certain amount of humility for a young
knockout artist to admit that he doesn't have all the answers and to come back
to the ring with additional ones. Thurman's shown a willingness to learn and I
believe that his desire to be great has placed him with an ideal mentor in
Birmingham.
For
now, it's clear to me that Thurman is caught in between styles. He
hopefully will consolidate his considerable offensive skills and meld his
power, technique and athleticism to become a consistent, high-level fighter.
It's also possible that it never comes together for him. Thurman can be a very
cerebral fighter and that attribute in overabundance can lead to hesitation and
paralysis-by-analysis. In short, the clock hasn't fully clicked on for
Thurman in the ring. He's still figuring out when to engage, when to box, when
to go for the kill and how to do so without putting himself in unnecessary
danger.
Thurman
won't have too many more fights in which to develop. He'll soon face a tough,
world-class welterweight and the stakes will become exponentially higher for
him. With a few top wins, he could emerge as one of the true stars of American
boxing. However, this sport has also been littered with significant talents who
fall short at the elite level.
The
next 12 months of Thurman's career will be fascinating to watch as boxing fans
will learn what his real ceiling is in the sport. I'm banking on Thurman's
character and his desire to be great. His raw tools are there and he has a good
team in place. However, it must be pointed out that intangibles aren't always
set in stone either. If he understands that there is still a gap from his current form to elite
status and that he needs to keep improving, then he will be in good shape to compete against the best at 147. However,
if he starts to believe in his own headlines or if he gets a little too
comfortable with his money, then all bets are off. Stay tuned.