Opinions and Observations: Canelo-Crawford

Let's start by answering the essential question posed by Saturday's Saul "Canelo" Alvarez-Terence Crawford matchup: even though Crawford was moving up two weight classes from junior middleweight to super middleweight, his chin held up just fine. Whatever else Crawford accomplished in the fight, he was able to succeed because he could take Canelo's power. 

But even more telling, Crawford didn't show visible signs of distress from Canelo's power punches. He was never dropped or wobbled or seriously buzzed. He didn't have those rocky moments where he needed to survive or clear his head. Yeah, he got hit with some solid shots, but that had happened in other fights before. There was nothing particularly special to Crawford about Canelo's power.

Crawford after the fight
Photo courtesy of Ed Mulholland/TKO Boxing Promotions

And once it became clear that Canelo didn't hold a significant power edge, the bout came down to simple math. Canelo mostly could only throw one punch at a time. And in the second half of the fight, where Crawford was more expansive with his offense, leading and countering with combinations, Canelo couldn't match Crawford shot for shot. 

In addition to Crawford's chin holding up, I also believe that his defense was as good as I can remember, and I haven't always loved his defense. Even Bivol was hit by Canelo with bigger shots than Crawford was on Saturday. Crawford essentially limited Canelo's home run bombs. Maybe Canelo landed one or two devastating punches, but most of what he landed were solid connects thrown more for accuracy than for destructive power.

*** 

Crawford started the fight with a basic offensive output. Exclusively out of the southpaw stance, he'd throw a jab, a single lead punch or a counter, but not much more than that. He was mostly on his back foot or using lateral movement to be evasive. He didn't want to show Canelo too much of his offensive arsenal, but he also didn't want to give Canelo much to work with either. His essential missions early in the fight were to ensure that his defense was on point and to observe what Canelo was bringing to the table.

By the sixth round he had seen what he had needed to see. He realized that Canelo wanted to lead with single shots and wasn't looking to counter. Crawford also perceived that once he countered a single Canelo power shot, that Canelo wasn't ready to counter the counter. Canelo also wasn't throwing combinations. Crawford was now ready to open up more. It was time to let the hands go.

In rounds eight and nine, Canelo decided to throw with more abandon. There were a number of fiery exchanges where both fighters had success. But by the 10th, Canelo was back to one punch at a time. He didn't want to deal with Crawford's five-punch combinations. He lacked the athletic agility to match Crawford and he had to protect himself from Crawford's incoming firepower. 

By the 11th round, Canelo was visibly frustrated. At multiple times in the round, he looked away from Crawford. Whether he was trying to eye his corner or just mentally reset, he understood that he was being outfought and he couldn't figure out how to turn the tide.

It was Crawford's work in the championship rounds that won him the fight on my scorecard and those of the judges. Flowing freely with combinations and multi-punch counters, Crawford clearly separated himself from Canelo during these rounds. He didn't just win them 10-9; they were easily the best rounds from either fighter in the match. 

Crawford celebrates with his team
Photo courtesy of Ed Mulholland/TKO Boxing Promotions

It had been a long time since a fighter opened up on Canelo with four- and five-punch combinations. Clearly Crawford felt more than comfortable taking those types of risks. By the end of the fight, he had solved Canelo's defensive construct and mindset for the fight. His combinations dissuaded Canelo from countering with ferocity. In short, Crawford had tamed Canelo.   

As good as Crawford was late, Canelo wasn't summarily outboxed during the entirety of the fight. Like two of the judges, I scored the bout for Crawford 115-113 (the other judge had it for him 116-112). To my eyes, I had Canelo winning rounds 1, 4, 5, 8 and 9. Especially early in the fight, I was impressed by Canelo's hand speed with landing single shots. When they both were throwing one punch at a time, Canelo more than held his own. His left hooks to the body were punishing and he landed a few sneaky straight rights and right hooks that got Crawford's attention. 

***

In talking to a friend after the fight, we highlighted similar details from the bout. One key we both focused on was that Canelo could no longer counter like he once did. Now we may need to go back several years here, but there was a time when Canelo was among the best counterpunchers in the sport. Not only was he accurate but he was creative. He threw multi-punch counters with unusual punch sequences. He could be incredible in the pocket when someone came to him. 

But clearly Father Time and the higher weights have caught up with him. Though he was the younger fighter in the matchup chronologically, Canelo had hundreds of more professional rounds than Crawford and had endured many tougher fights in the ring. He just isn't the athlete that he once was. 

Furthermore, as Canelo moved up to 168, he had physical disadvantages that precluded him from being a counterpuncher. He was short and had short arms. He was dealing with much longer punchers who could pick him off from the outside. Thus, Canelo found a walk-down pressure style that suited him perfectly against super middleweights. The dimensions of his opponents didn't allow for Canelo to open up with threes and fours like he once did, but Canelo understood that the single, hard, well-placed shot could do a lot of damage. 

As he got older, he also refined other parts of his game. His defense became far more advanced. He also knew how to cut the ring off on an opponent with agile footwork, despite not having the best athletic ability. These additions to his game helped him offset the decline of his athletic gifts. Unfortunately for Canelo, against Crawford, more was required to win. Maybe the Canelo of the second Golovkin fight (a bout that took place at middleweight) could have done more with this version of Crawford. There Canelo actually outslugged Golovkin in the pocket through large stretches of the fight. However, that bout was seven years ago!

***

Whenever a fighter accomplishes the unfathomable, it takes a long time to process the achievement in an appropriate context. The absurdity of the same fighter winning a title at lightweight and super middleweight seems more myth-like than reality. But Crawford in fact has accomplished this. Even when considering recent greats who have made similar leaps through weight classes, like Pacquiao going from flyweight to junior middleweight or Ray Leonard going from welterweight to light heavyweight, those fighters took losses along the way, whereas Crawford's record remains unblemished. Even the great Roy Jones had a loss to Montell Griffin on his way from middleweight to heavyweight, and we can all agree that John Ruiz wasn't lineal or undisputed when Jones beat him. 

Crawford has not just won belts in multiple weight classes. He has been undisputed in three of them. He has settled the argument of his greatness in his era. He beat a guy in Canelo who had four titles at 168. In Errol Spence he defeated an opponent who held the other three belts in the division. 

You still won't see a long list of great names on Crawford's resume. He has a win over a clear Hall of Famer in Canelo and another over a solid candidate in Spence. There are several fighters such as Gamboa, Porter, Khan, Brook, and others who were sterling for the era but don't really have claims to be among the best boxers of their time.

So, much about Crawford is still subject to speculation. We know that among those he has fought, he has beaten all. There was a deep bench of welterweights when he was there and didn't have opportunities to fight Pacquiao or Garcia. The division he just left after one fight, junior middleweight, has tons of talented fighter. Would he have still remained undefeated against a few of those other top fighters? We will never know. 

But in those all-time conversations, it's time to add Crawford to the mix. A man who can be undisputed at both 140 and 168 lbs. has forced himself into all sorts of serious discussions. Is Crawford the best of his era? Which fighters are we sure can beat him from 135 to 168? These are of course parlor games, but they are the eternal conversations among boxing fans. Crawford is now in the historical category. He's a data point in comparison for how future fighters will be measured. His attributes must now be considered and measured against the best who have done it. 

But more than conjecture, Crawford is a fighter who has accomplished. He refused to accept the limitations placed on him by others. Never anyone's first choice for boxing stardom, or even greatness, Crawford ignored those who didn't believe in him and tore down those who stood in his way. He wouldn't be denied, by opponents, the boxing industry or even himself. He pursued a singular path to greatness and succeeded. His dreams were big, but his talent was even greater. He no longer has to worry about fantasy fights or what ifs. He has conquered.

Crawford is the supreme interloper of his era in boxing. He wasn't invited to the party, but he crashed it, leaving an impressive trail of wreckage along his way. No cash cow or beltholder has been safe near his presence. He has bent the sport of boxing to his will. He is a Hagler figure with a Ray Leonard pedigree, a package that has been unsolvable for any of his contemporaries. It is his reign. 

Adam Abramowitz is the founder and head writer of saturdaynightboxing.com. 

He's a member of the Ring Magazine Ratings Panel, the Transnational Boxing Rankings Board, and the Boxing Writers Association of America.

Email: saturdaynightboxing@hotmail.com

snboxing on twitter. SN Boxing on Facebook 

Canelo-Crawford: Preview and Prediction

The best fighters in the world all believe in their supremacy. Their confidence is what helps drive them to be what they are in the ring. And when fighters jump up multiple weight classes to challenge a top opponent, this scenario illustrates unshakeable self-belief. Who needs weight divisions when a fighter thinks that he possesses greatness? 

Or is it deception? And might the deception swing both ways? How does the guy moving up beat the bigger man? Does he have a legitimate game plan? If he's not the more powerful puncher, what can he do to deceive the bigger man? What tricks can he bring to the table, or is he deceiving himself? And does the bigger man perceive the threat? Is he taking the threat seriously? Is he deceived by his own superiority? Does he understand the risks in play?

The showdown between Saul "Canelo" Alvarez (63-2-2, 39 KOs) and Terence Crawford (41-0, 31 KOs) takes place on Saturday at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas. The fight will be contested at 168 lbs., where Canelo is the division's undisputed champion. Crawford, who has only had one fight at 154 lbs., will be moving up two weight classes for the bout. Both are among the top fighters in the sport. Both believe that they have what it takes to win. But when the opening bell rings, who will be the fighter that gets the better of the action and which fighter will be guilty of deceiving himself?

Image courtesy of Sela Promotions

Let's start with a basic question: Is Canelo-Crawford a legitimate fight or are we as boxing fans being deceived? Will Canelo-Crawford be Spence vs. Garcia, where Garcia was completely uncompetitive, or might this matchup contain a bit of magic, such as when Bernard Hopkins moved up two divisions to beat Antonio Tarver?

Canelo-Crawford has divided opinion among boxing fans, not just in terms of who might win, but whether or not the fight should even be taking place. To some observers, Crawford moving up two divisions at age 37 is a bridge too far. Although he had been a champ at 135 lbs. and undisputed at 140 and 147, he struggled to beat Israil Madrimov in his last fight, which was his lone appearance at 154. Whereas Crawford was a pulverizer at welterweight, his power didn't carry the same oomph at 154 lbs. And Canelo has been at 168 for years and has even fought, and scored a knockout, up at 175 lbs. To these observers, this fight is boxing deceiving its fans. It's not a real contest.

Although more than a few might view Canelo-Crawford as a gimmick fight, I don't place myself in this category. I think it's a highly intriguing battle between one of the absolute best fighters in the sport (Crawford) and a long-reigning popular champion who is probably on the backside of his career (Canelo). 

But can Crawford avoid winding up on HIS backside during the matchup? Well, that is one of the more important questions in this matchup. But there are others. 

It was just two years ago when an undisputed junior middleweight champion (Jermell Charlo) moved up to face Canelo at 168 and despite all the bluster and the belief that Charlo was daring to be great, on fight night, the bout was a dud. Charlo couldn't handle Canelo's power. He was too gun shy to let his hands go and was happy to survive to the final bell. When he felt those first big blows from Canelo, he went into a shell. His confidence left the building in a hurry. Charlo fell victim to his own self-deception.

Well, what will be different for Crawford? 

First of all, I think that Crawford has the X-factor of having an almost pathological need to win. I don't see him being happy to pick up a paycheck. We've seen him get hit hard, we've seen him lose early rounds, but he has done whatever it takes to turn a fight in his favor. Even against Madrimov, what saved Crawford in the end was his jab. He couldn't land his power shots consistently to the head, so he just scored with that stick over and over in the fight's closing rounds. Crawford isn't considered a jabber by nature, but when the situation required it, he understood that the jab was what was going to get him to victory. 

But that's Crawford. He has always found a way. He has every tool in the toolbox. He can win going forward or backward, southpaw or orthodox, leading or countering. He has a punch for every scenario. 

And although Crawford will be the older fighter on Saturday (37 to 35), he probably has far fewer miles on his odometer. Consider that Canelo has gone the 12-round distance 20 times in his career, while Crawford has only fought 12 full rounds just four times, a staggering difference. And it's also clear that the late-model Canelo doesn't let his combinations go like he once did. He's a guy who loads up on single power shots. But even when he does hurt an opponent, he no longer goes for the stoppage with abandon. It's been eight fights since he's had a stoppage (Caleb Plant) but since then, he's knocked down Ryder, Charlo, Munguia and Berlanga, but has been content to go the distance. 

This, in my mind is the crucial aspect of Saturday's fight. I have no doubt that Canelo will land something hard; he always does. But he may no longer have the gas or the willingness to get Crawford out of there. Furthermore, you will have to go back past ten fights since Canelo has had a one-shot knockout. In short, I think if Crawford is hurt, he will have an opportunity to survive. 

Crawford and Usyk are the two fighters in boxing who I believe make the best adjustments in the ring. But that doesn't always mean that Crawford gets it right from the jump. Crawford has had more than a few fights where he started orthodox and just wasn't up to par defensively, so he turned southpaw. In addition, he's given up rounds early in fights. It can often take him several rounds until he really understands what's working for him in the ring. 

Despite Crawford having the athletic advantages in the matchup, I believe that Canelo could make the early statement in the fight. Crawford, despite sparring bigger guys in camp, will not have had the reps taking power punches from a big hitter at 168 with 10 oz. gloves. Canelo will have the element of surprise. In addition, Canelo has more than one big power punch. The left hook is his money shot, but so many forget the overhand right that ended Sergey Kovalev's night. I have no doubt that Canelo's first few connects of the fight will have a real effect. 

On Saturday Crawford must minimize damage early in the fight. Canelo's big connects must be few and far between. Crawford also needs to make sure that he's really out-of-reach when backing away; Canelo has surprising range.  

But Crawford is going to get hit. Let's not pretend that he will be able to shut Canelo out. Even against Bivol where Canelo clearly lost, he still landed four or five absolute bombs. Crawford's going to have to take those punches. He'll need to think clearly under duress and execute his game plan. 

For Canelo, he must change his recent calculus about how to win a fight. Although he has a great understanding of when he has prevailed in a round, that won't be enough for him early in the match. Crawford is a terrific second-half fighter. It's not sufficient for Canelo to win a few 10-9 rounds in the early rounds of the bout based on coming forward and unfurling a couple of huge punches that excite the crowd. No, he must do damage. He must deplete Crawford. He must punish him with head and body shots. Winning a cagey boxing match through six rounds won't cut it. He needs to make Crawford a lesser fighter for the second half of the bout. 

While Canelo must try to deplete Crawford, Crawford must fatigue Canelo. He needs to move around enough to frustrate Canelo so that Canelo won't feel comfortable letting his hands go with regularity. He must be the better athlete in the fight and not try to slug it out during the early rounds when Canelo is at his freshest. 

I do expect Crawford to become more liberal with incorporating his punch arsenal in the second half of the fight. I also think that he will find opportunistic moments to let combinations go. He will pick up on Canelo not wanting to throw his own combinations. Crawford will have the ability to get in and out more as Canelo tires and waits for one, hard counter. 

Ultimately, I like Crawford to peck and claw his way to a victory. I think that his jab, lateral movement, single straight lefts from the southpaw position, and quick-strike combos will be enough to frustrate Canelo and get the better of him on the scorecards. Certainly, Canelo will have the crowd on his side and judges have been kind to him at many moments throughout his career, but I think that Crawford will do enough to get the victory in a competitive fight. I expect Canelo to land some telling punches in the fight, and it wouldn't surprise me if he gets a knockdown, but I believe that Crawford is cagey enough to survive the rough moments. Most importantly, Crawford will be the fresher fighter with more tools at his disposal down the stretch. He will need to keep the fight close early, not get caught with too many big shots, and then use his superior athletic and technical gifts to pull out the victory in the second half. 

Terence Crawford defeats Canelo Alvarez 7 rounds to 5, which could be 115-113 or 114-113, depending on if Canelo scores a knockdown. 

Adam Abramowitz is the founder and head writer of saturdaynightboxing.com. 

He's a member of the Ring Magazine Ratings Panel, the Transnational Boxing Rankings Board, and the Boxing Writers Association of America.

Email: saturdaynightboxing@hotmail.com

snboxing on twitter. SN Boxing on Facebook 

Opinions and Observations: Canelo-Munguia

Jaime Munguia was the first fighter who really brought it to Saul "Canelo" Alvarez since Gennadiy Golovkin's prime. Over the last half-decade, Canelo's opponents have most often played a glorified game of peak-a-boo where they remained on the outside, hoping to peck and paw, not willing to go into Canelo's kitchen. Munguia had no such caution. From the opening bell, Munguia was determined to go after Canelo, to bring volume with him and to let his power shots flow. He was there to mix it up. 

It had been so long since we had seen Canelo with such an opponent that Munguia instantly asked questions of him. Can Canelo handle the volume? Is his chin still sturdy against a guy throwing big power shots? Would he be able to maintain a fast pace for 12 rounds? 

Munguia was effective in asking those questions of Canelo; however, Canelo answered all of them affirmatively. After the first three rounds where Munguia more than held his own, Canelo started to throw the types of pulverizing counter shots that initially led to his fame in the sport. And in a further turning back of the clock, Canelo wasn't just throwing one shot at a time; he let his hands go in combination. 

Canelo (right) throwing a right hand
Photo courtesy of Esther Lin/Premier Boxing Champions 

Take the knockdown in the fourth round. Canelo dropped Munguia for the first time in his career with a sizzling left hook/right uppercut combination. He even threw a clean-up left hook that didn't land as Munguia was already on his way down. Throughout the fight Canelo was letting his hands go in twos and threes and it was a thrilling reminder of how skilled and dynamic a craftsman he can be. Yes, Canelo had the heavier hands, but he also had significant advantages in punch placement, creativity, and a larger punch arsenal. 

Perhaps the biggest advantage he had in the fight was defense. Canelo was magnificent in catching shots on his arms, taking a step back to evade big punches, and using head movement. He had a full complement of defensive techniques that he employed to tame an active, aggressive power puncher. 

CompuBox credited Munguia with landing 170/663 punches (25.6%) and 96/328 power punches (29.3%). And let's take a minute to understand just how many big power shots that Canelo evaded: over 230 of them! These weren't shots from well out of range or thrown with terrible technique; Canelo was mostly right in front of Munguia, who doesn't have bad hand speed, and yet the overwhelming majority of punches failed to land. It was a stunning defensive display. 

But let's also give Munguia credit. Although he didn't land at a high percentage, he did certainly land. Connecting with 170 blows is nothing to sniff at; it's almost 100 more than Jermell Charlo landed in Canelo's last fight. And many of these were big punches from a hard-hitting super middleweight, and not someone moving up from 154 lbs. 

Munguia certainly had a case for winning three or four rounds in the fight and he landed some blistering shots over the course of the bout. So, let's also praise Canelo's chin. He took some big bombs throughout the night yet was never in any real trouble. His defense was great, but his sturdy chin insured his preeminence on the night.

The two boxers appreciating each other post-fight
Photo courtesy of Esther Lin/Premier Boxing Champions 

Overall, I was really entertained by the fight. Both took turns countering and leading. And there were portions of the bout where each one tried to drive the other back. It turned out to be a wonderful showcase for what Canelo can offer in the ring. However, Munguia pushed him; he made Canelo bring out long-dormant sides of his game. 

Canelo won by unanimous decision, but it was a competitive fight. Munguia showed that he has the offensive skills and internal fortitude to become an important part of the North American boxing landscape. He answered many questions as well. When the going got tough, he didn't fold or become cautious. He continued to go right at Canelo; a sign of a real fighter.  

I'm not sure if Canelo-Munguia will be remembered decades from now, but let's not let legacy cloud the overall satisfaction from Saturday's fight. Yes, the fighter who was supposed to win, won, and the bout wasn't one of those fights that had any doubt as to who deserved the victory. But boxing is also about entertainment. And Canelo-Munguia had that in spades. 

Munguia was out to make a name for himself. Although he ran into a superior talent, he wasn't dissuaded. And Canelo, the old veteran, relished the give-and-take of the combat. He seemed to love being in a fight where he didn't have to go looking on milk cartons for his opponent. It was two guys slugging it out for glory. There were bombs a-flyin', the crowd cheering, and two boxers giving it their best in the ring. In the end, the word that sprang to mind was enjoyment. And we certainly don't use that word enough when it comes to boxing. The fight delivered. There were smiles all around. Job well done to both. 

Adam Abramowitz is the founder and head writer of saturdaynightboxing.com. 

He's a contributing writer for Ring Magazine, a member of Ring Magazine's Ring Ratings Panel and a Board Member for the Transnational Boxing Rankings Board. 

Email: saturdaynightboxing@hotmail.com

snboxing on twitter. SN Boxing on Facebook 

Canelo-Munguia: Preview and Prediction

In an all-Mexican showdown that promises to feature a steady supply of power punches, Saul "Canelo" Alvarez (60-2-2, 39 KOs) and Jaime Munguia (43-0, 34 KOs) square off on Saturday at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. The fight will be contested for Canelo's undisputed status (all four major title belts) at super middleweight. 

From a stylistic standpoint, the match should deliver the goods. Munguia is a power-punching, high-volume, aggressive fighter, while Canelo packs the single-shot knockout weapons and large punch arsenal that has made him one of the top fighters in the sport. For Munguia, 27, this is the big fight that he and his fans have been waiting for. Since establishing himself on the world level at 154-lbs. in 2018, Munguia has faced a parade of B-level fighters while his team conspicuously turned down higher-level opportunities against more notable fighters. 

Munguia has recently switched trainers, from Erik Morales to Freddie Roach. He's coming off a destructive ninth-round stoppage against John Ryder, where Munguia outperformed Canelo against a common opponent (Canelo beat Ryder by a decision in a pedestrian performance, although he did knock down Ryder once). Canelo, 33, was last in the ring in September, where he dominated undisputed junior middleweight champion Jermell Charlo, winning a wide decision and scoring a knockdown. 

Saul "Canelo" Alvarez 
Photo courtesy of Esther Lin/Premier Boxing Champions

The two main factors when analyzing this matchup are Munguia's volume advantage and his leaky defense, and these two aspects may wind up becoming interrelated on Saturday. Munguia will frequently average 70 or 80 punches a round. Although he has demonstrated a usable jab at points, he's mostly a combination puncher. He often throws three and four-punch combinations and isn't worried if the first or second punch doesn't land. He's looking to probe an opponent's defense with his combinations. 

Munguia throws essentially every punch in the book and has the power to hurt foes with his straight right, left hook and uppercuts. He can also loop his punches so even his "straight right" doesn't always appear to come in that straight, giving him the advantage of landing shots from unusual angles. He's also equally comfortable going to the body or the head.  

An opponent's volume can be a blessing or a curse for counterpuncher. Unlike Canelo a decade ago, he no longer lets his hands go that much as he has moved up in weight. He often settles between 30-40 punches per round, and sometimes it's far less than that. Although his timing is impeccable and his counters are hard, he isn't going to match Munguia punch-for-punch. Structurally, that advantage helps Munguia with the judges if he isn't taking huge punishment in return. The judges will see him more active; he'll be the one making the fight. 

Canelo is going to have to identify openings and make Munguia pay for his volume. And this shouldn't be that difficult of an undertaking since every opponent seems to land flush shots on Munguia. To Munguia's credit, he has demonstrated a sturdy chin and if he is hurt, like he was in the Derevyanchenko fight, he's shown strong recuperative powers. So, it will not be enough for Canelo to hurt Munguia once, or land something hard a couple of times; he will need to do so on a consistent basis to see the fight go his way. In the rounds where he cannot land his thudding artillery, expect Munguia to get the benefit from the judges. 

Jaime Munguia
Photo courtesy of Esther Lin/Showtime

Of course, Canelo can fight more than one way, and there's no law that says he has to fight as a counterpuncher against Munguia. As Canelo has aged, he's been very effective as a walk-down pressure fighter. I don't think that Munguia will be compliant in allowing that fight to happen consistently, but if Canelo can get Munguia on the back foot through portions of the bout, that will be a great benefit to him; Munguia isn't nearly as effective when boxing off the back foot than when he's going forward. 

It's possible that Canelo will try to hold the center of the ring and look for opportunities to sharp shoot as Munguia opens up with combinations. The openings should be there, not because Munguia has bad balance, but he does often overshoot his punches or throw punches from the wrong range. Although he will get his shots home, he'll be missing a lot as well, providing ample opportunity for Canelo to counter. Canelo's head movement and overall defensive technique will be a significant advantage for him in the fight.

Prediction: 

As dynamic as Munguia is offensively, I don't like anyone's chances against Canelo when giving him ample free shots during a 12-round fight. The only fighter who in my opinion that has survived that strategy and live to tell about it was Gennadiy Golovkin, who should have been awarded a least one victory against Canelo. Golovkin had a superhuman beard, and although Munguia's chin has been good, he has never faced a level of puncher like Canelo. 

I think that Munguia will pull ahead to an early lead in the fight. He'll feel confident with his offense and Canelo will take a few rounds to study Munguia, see what's in front of him and figure out the angles for the counters. By the fourth round I expect Canelo to start landing his fair share of pulverizing power punches. The middle rounds of the fight are where I believe the bout will get explosive. Munguia won't want to back down and he will be motivated to return any punishment that he receives in kind. 

But ultimately, I think that Canelo is too sharp of a puncher and Munguia's defense is too leaky. There are only so many shots a super middleweight can take from Canelo. I think that Munguia's skin will start to open up and he'll have issues with facial swelling as the fight progresses. I think that Munguia will start to have problems seeing the punches coming, which will spell the end for him in the fight. I expect the match to be stopped late. Let's call it for the 11th round. 

Saul "Canelo" Alvarez TKO 11 Jaime Munguia. 

Adam Abramowitz is the founder and head writer of saturdaynightboxing.com. 

He's a contributing writer for Ring Magazine, a member of Ring Magazine's Ring Ratings Panel and a Board Member for the Transnational Boxing Rankings Board. 

Email: saturdaynightboxing@hotmail.com

snboxing on twitter. SN Boxing on Facebook 

Opinions and Observations: Canelo-Charlo

Let's start at the end, shall we? After Saul "Canelo" Alvarez's domination of Jermell Charlo, Canelo was jubilant during the post-fight interview. "I love boxing so f$&#ing much," the undisputed super middleweight champion shouted, smiling ear to ear. Leading up to Saturday's fight, Canelo had acknowledged slippage in his most recent outings, and he declared that he had rededicated himself to the sport. For this fight he left his comfortable San Diego home base for the mountains near Lake Tahoe and scheduled a 14-week training camp, not the sign of a boxer who is cutting corners.   

The results were striking. It was immediately apparent how much better he looked on his feet. Canelo had a bounce to his step. His footwork wasn't ponderous. And he put together a strong 12 rounds. There was no fade; he didn't look labored. He was focused on the task at hand. He looked like a craftsman who had fallen back in love with his work. 

Canelo lands a left hook to the body
Photo courtesy of Esther Lin/Showtime

After losing 10 or 11 of the rounds on Saturday, Charlo didn't seem particularly bothered by his defeat. In his post-fight interview, he talked about how he had been proud of himself, that he dared to be great, that he could move back down to 154 lbs. 

Yet his effort didn't live up to the "Lions Only" moniker that he and his brother had given themselves. Charlo never looked comfortable or confident. He was far more concerned with being evasive in the ring than trying to mount a consistent offense. He got in a sharp left hook every so often, but the commitment to win just wasn't there.  

It was a strange performance from Charlo, who had always fought hard during his tough matchups. Even when things hadn't gone his way in several of his bouts, he had a way of willing himself back into fights. He saved a draw with his late-round rally in the first Brian Castano fight. He had trouble with John Jackson's movement before stopping him. Tony Harrison was having a great second fight until Charlo turned it around with a late-round knockout.  

But against Canelo, Charlo was compliant in his defeat. He capitulated. In watching the fight, I never got the sense that he believed he could win, or even if he couldn't, that he would do his absolute best to try for it. I'm sure being knocked down in the seventh spooked him, but well before that point the fight had failed to be competitive.  

Charlo taking a knee in the seventh
Photo courtesy of Esther Lin

Although there was a significant power gap between the two, which certainly affected Charlo, the most striking difference to me was their respective defenses. While Charlo's defense has always been penetrable, he had almost always been able to get through with his best punches. And yet according to CompuBox, he landed less than 18% of his shots. Canelo essentially doubled Charlo's connect percentage. Although Charlo lacked Canelo's power, Canelo's victory was far more comprehensive than that factor. Charlo didn't even have the tools to land on Canelo on a consistent basis. And considering that Charlo entered the fight as an undisputed champion and one of the elites in the sport, that's quite an alarming piece of evidence. 

Canelo will always be known for his left hook, but I think that his right hook was the best punch of Saturday's fight. Like a surgeon, he was able to place the shot perfectly around Charlo's high guard and land it with thudding power. Charlo never made the defensive adjustment for the punch. The knockdown in the seventh was a direct result of Canelo's success with the right hook. With Charlo against the ropes, Canelo was lining up the right hand, but instead of hooking with it, he shot an overhead right between Charlo's gloves. The shot itself didn't knock Charlo down, but he took a knee to regroup; the punch was that devastating. Ultimately, Charlo's inability to defend the right hand was his single biggest defensive issue (and there were others). Instead of taking away Canelo's straight right or his right hook, Charlo was unable to do either. 

Throughout the rest of the fight Canelo mixed in an array of single shots: jabs, hooks, uppercuts. In the past he had several fights where he became too left hook-happy or was overly reliant on his overhand right. On Saturday, he was able to throw and land his entire arsenal. Although he rarely threw in combination, he offered an unpredictability with his punch selection that kept Charlo unsettled.  

The respective performances from Canelo and Charlo illustrate the importance of intangibles. Canelo fought like he had more to prove on the night. Essentially, it was a guy who wanted to be there against a guy who quickly didn't. Charlo is certainly a much better fighter than he showed on Saturday, but he wasn't interested in finding out what would happen if he really went for it. He's a guy who still has options at 154 and 160 lbs., and he fought like it. While Canelo demonstrated that he was the more skilled fighter in the ring, even that advantage can often be overcome or even challenged by an opponent's desire or will, but Charlo manifested none of that on Saturday.   

Charlo will certainly face another notable opponent in a lower weight class, but he will return to the ring with his reputation diminished. In the biggest moment of his career, Charlo made a deal with himself to survive. That is the opposite of what prizefighting is about. And while I'm sure that the additional zeroes in his bank account will take the sting off his loss, the fans and the boxing industry will remember his poor showing. He had a historic opportunity to cement his legacy, to become an era-defining fighter, and he didn't go for it, deciding instead to be satisfied with his participation trophy.

Adam Abramowitz is the founder and head writer of saturdaynightboxing.com. 

He's a contributing writer for Ring Magazine, a member of Ring Magazine's Ring Ratings Panel and a Board Member for the Transnational Boxing Rankings Board. 

Email: saturdaynightboxing@hotmail.com

snboxing on twitter. SN Boxing on Facebook.