The battle for super middleweight supremacy takes place on
Saturday as Saul "Canelo" Alvarez (56-1-2, 38 KOs) faces Caleb
Plant (21-0, 12 KOs) at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas. All of the
168-lb. belts will be on the line and Saturday's winner will become the undisputed
champion in the division.
Although
Plant has faced few top opponents in his career, his skills are easy to see.
Among all active boxers who fight in the orthodox stance, he has one of the
best left hands in the sport. His jab and left hook are significant weapons. He possesses considerable hand and foot speed and his
punch placement and accuracy (especially with his left) are impressive.
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| Canelo (left) and Plant at the final presser Photo courtesy of Amanda Westcott |
The main issue with Plant is that his left hand is significantly more developed than his right. There isn't a whole lot that Plant does with his back hand other than keep opponents honest from time to time, and often he doesn't do that, even against foes who are far beneath him in skill level. He just doesn't throw his right hand with frequency or confidence.
This
is the central conundrum that Plant and his trainer, Justin Gamber, face for Saturday's fight. I'm sure that Canelo realizes the significant difference
in effectiveness of Plant's left vs. his right. So naturally Canelo would want to
take away Plant's left hand in the fight as much as possible.
So,
what does Plant do if Canelo stands all the way to Plant's right side, well out of the
range of Plant's left hand? What if Canelo angles himself as such to make it a
battle of the right hands? Canelo has hurt, dropped and stopped opponents with
his right, but what can Plant do in this scenario?
To force Canelo out of his Plan A, Plant
has to throw his right hand and needs to do enough with it to
gain Canelo's respect. If he can't, it seems hard to envision a scenario where Plant
can win. Yes, Plant will have faster hands and feet, but none of that will matter
if Plant is unable to land effective punches.
I
expect to see Canelo fight large portions of the match on Plant's right side.
It's up to Plant and his team to make Canelo change his strategy. And I'm just
not a big enough believer in Plant's right hand to see how he can overcome this
predicament. Canelo can shoot right hands to the body. He can throw straight
rights from range. He can mix in right hooks when he's in close quarters. Plant
doesn't have the same effectiveness with his right.
If
Canelo-Plant becomes a battle of right hands, expect a low punch-volume affair.
With both fighters unable to land jabs from this set-up, the fight will be
determined by whose single right hands will cause more damage. And in this
scenario, I believe that Canelo's right will rule the day.
To
win the fight, Plant will have to show some new tricks, and let's not discount
that possibility. He's an intelligent boxer and is very coachable. In addition,
he's a fighter who can stick with a game plan very effectively. This will be an
enormous hurdle for Plant and Gamber to overcome, but this is their chance to
prove themselves on boxing's highest level. If they can get Canelo to move to a Plan B, then the fight could open up much more to their liking.
I think that there will be a lot of slow rounds early in the fight, with neither fighter able to get off combinations. The early rounds will feature several small tactical battles in terms of movement and positioning, with Canelo trying to get to Plant's right side and Plant attempting to deny that movement. I expect only a few punches of significance in the first few rounds of the match.
As the fight progresses, I think that
Canelo's rights to the head and body will start to have their desired effect. Ultimately, I think that he will be able
to stop Plant late in the fight from sustained damaged caused by his right.
Saul Canelo Alvarez stops Caleb Plant in the 11th round.
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