The rematch for heavyweight
supremacy between unified champion Oleksandr Usyk (22-0, 14 KOs) and former
lineal champ Tyson Fury (34-1-1, 24 KOs) takes place on Saturday at the Kingdom
Arena in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. When they met in May, Usyk scored a memorable
ninth-round knockdown and won by split decision. Saturday's victor will no
longer be regarded as "undisputed" at heavyweight (thank you, IBF),
but the winner of the match will be the top dog in the division.
In assessing the rematch, I have
two factors that lead me to pick Usyk: 1. His stamina advantage. 2. A belief in
his ability to get the job done, no matter the circumstances. But make no
mistake, Usyk certainly lost rounds in their first fight and also got hit with
dozens of hard shots in the middle rounds. Despite the win, his victory was
anything but smooth sailing.
The knockdown in the first fight
changed the trajectory of the match, with Fury not only losing a 10-8 round in
the ninth, but also needing several rounds to regroup. But even still, the
judges were far from convinced by Usyk's performance. He wound up winning
114-113, 115-112 and 113-114. Although I and many others had Usyk ahead by more
rounds, the officials around the ring were the ones who mattered.
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| Usyk and Fury at the final presser Photo courtesy of Leigh Dawney/DAZN |
In the first fight there were two factors that surprised me. I didn't expect to see Usyk spend as much time as he did on the front foot. With Usyk's evasive abilities, I thought that he would hatch a more circumspect plan of attack. But there he was throughout large portions of the fight backing Fury up to the ropes and unloading with straight left hands.
I also was surprised by how much
success Fury had in the center of the ring. Using his reach and wisely
sacrificing power for accuracy, Fury landed several thudding power punches
against Usyk who is supposed to be very hard to find. Even with Fury taking
some steam off his fastball, his punches were definitely hard enough to cause
damage.
For the rematch, Fury is going to
have to defend Usyk's left hand better. Although Usyk, a southpaw, is overly
reliant on his left-hand, it's not a single type of left that he throws.
Yes, he can go straight down the pipe with it, but he can also sling it, throw
it with a hitch or change to an overhand left. The secret to Usyk is his
creativity with his left hand. He can lead with it, he can walk an opponent
into it, he can counter with it, he can also change the angle. Where it's coming from
is anyone's guess.
Fury has a couple of options for
defending the left hand. He can smother it, getting in close enough range where
Usyk's left won't have the same impact. Fury can circle to his left which will
make it challenging for Usyk to land the left repeatedly. He can also park
himself on Usyk's right side and force Usyk to try to beat him with his
right.
All of this sounds simple enough but the challenge for Fury is getting in those winning positions and this is where Usyk's advantages in endurance and athleticism come into play. Usyk won't be compliant in allowing Fury to take away his left. He will move laterally and reset to find better angles to land it. He also will work for 12 rounds to find ways to score with his money punch. And the first fight showed that Fury doesn't have the same type of stamina at this point in his career to go 12 rounds on the offensive. He takes breaks. He leans on the ropes. He wants to fight in flurries and spurts; Usyk will continue to work. Although Usyk is not necessarily high-volume, he's determined. He will be as busy as he needs to be to win rounds.
Fury does have another choice,
one that is less tactical. He can start with bombs from the opening round.
Maybe he can't outbox Usyk, but maybe he won't even try. He has the punching
power and reach to hurt Usyk. The challenge will be for Fury to finish the job
if he has Usyk hurt, to not let Usyk, who has tremendous recuperative powers,
off the hook. Fury might not have the agility to put shots together late in
the fight for a stoppage, but he certainly could earlier in the bout.
Ultimately, I'm siding with
Usyk's ability to survive the threatening moments, to find a way to regroup and
to draw a line in the sand. I expect him to face duress in the fight. He will
have to think his way through the fight and somehow clear his head when the
going gets tough, but that's what he does.
Throughout his career at
cruiserweight and heavyweight, Usyk has always found a way. Every fight
hasn't necessarily been clean or pretty. He had to gut it out against Hunter,
Briedis, Bellew, Chisora, Joshua and Fury. He didn't dominate any of those fights
in my opinion, but he found ways to win. He’s terrific in a fight's second half
and especially in the championship rounds. If it's close, I believe that he
will find that extra gear to take him over the edge.
I respect Fury's ability in the ring. He will always pose problems for Usyk. His reach, combinations and offensive creativity will lead to periods of success against Usyk. He has the punching power to stop him and supreme boxing skills. But I don't think that he has the agility to defeat Usyk over 36 minutes nor do I believe that he can outwill Usyk. Fury himself has excellent recuperative powers, determination and self-belief, but Usyk is certainly his match in those categories. If Usyk is seriously hurt, I believe that he will find a way to survive.
Usyk has reservoirs of intestinal
fortitude that can change the trajectory of a fight, even when it's not going
his way. He was getting cuffed around in their first fight in rounds five and six, but he found a way to turn the tide, as he has always done in difficult matchups. I'm expecting an entertaining battle with both fighters displaying their world-class abilities. But down the stretch I expect Usyk to
separate himself in another close fight.
Oleksandr Usyk defeats Tyson
Fury by a competitive decision, let's call it 116-112.
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