One of
the most exciting matchups in the welterweight division takes place on Saturday
between boxing legend Manny Pacquiao (61-7-2, 39 KOs) and undefeated
titleholder Keith Thurman (29-0, 22 KOs) at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las
Vegas. Thurman has spent half-a-decade looking forward to his first
mega-fight. And although he was out of the ring for 22 months before returning
in January, he now has the signature opportunity
of his career. Pacquiao at 40 continues to soldier on. While he no longer
has the electrifying movement of his halcyon days, his dominant victory over
Adrien Broner earlier this year indicated that he still is one of the best
welterweights in the world.
Thurman's
status has suffered over the past few years. Once one of boxing's ascendant young stars; injuries, inactivity and questions about his commitment to the sport have dulled some of his earlier shine. In addition,
Thurman's ring identity has changed, transforming from a fan-friendly
seek-and-destroy fighter to now one who relies on boxing skills and
movement. His victories over Shawn Porter and Danny Garcia attest to his
talent, but perhaps his fighting style didn't curry favor with a portion of
boxing fans. Nevertheless, Thurman has drawn solid TV ratings wherever he has boxed and
has sold a fair amount of tickets when matched competitively.
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Photo Courtesy of Premier Boxing Champions |
Pacquiao,
a senator in the Philippines, remains a national hero, but has also seen his
reputation wax and wane among boxing fans over the last half-dozen years. The
lofty heights of his prime were long ago and his listless performance
against Floyd Mayweather in 2015 and a loss (although certainly debatable) to
the unheralded Jeff Horn in 2017 confirmed the end of his best years. Like Thurman, many corners of the boxing
world have at times questioned his commitment to the sport.
Regardless of past criticisms, boxing fans have embraced Pacquiao-Thurman. Both are coming off of wins and stylistically this fight presents an
almost even matchup on paper (Thurman started off as a slight favorite with the
bookies, but now he's the small betting underdog.) So what will it be? Will Pacquiao’s
big-fight experience and punch accuracy be enough to put him over the top? Will
Thurman's edges in athleticism and punch volume lead to victory? Below will be
the keys to the fight. My prediction will be at the end of the article.
1. Will
the Pacquiao and Thurman from earlier this year be the Pacquiao and Thurman in
the ring on Saturday?
It's no
secret that Keith Thurman was in significant trouble against Josesito
Lopez in January. After building a big lead early in the fight, which included an impressive knockdown, Thurman had to survive some harrowing moments in the
second half of the fight. At multiple points, especially in the ninth, he
seemed a shot or two away from getting knocked out. In the end he won via a
majority decision.
There's
a glass half-full and a glass half-empty way to interpret his performance. On the positive
side, he remained on his feet and even rallied to have a decent 12th round. His resilience demonstrated tremendous character and intestinal fortitude. However, Lopez, as rugged
as he is, would never be described as an A-list talent in the sport. If Thurman
can't avoid Lopez's big shots, how will he do against an opponent with even
better power and more accuracy? After the Lopez bout, Thurman admitted that he had ring rust and vowed
that he would be better in his next fight. But will Thurman improve from his January
performance or, after a long time out of the ring, has he forever lost the
reflexes and sharpness of his youth?
As for Pacquiao,
he looked fantastic in defeating Broner earlier this year, hurting him a number
of times and pulling away with a wide unanimous decision. Pacquiao still employed a
number of clever angles to land his power punches and utilized his sometimes-forgotten
right hook as a weapon. But let's also not tell tall tales. Broner barely let
his hands go and refused to engage throughout large portions of the fight. In
the end, he tried to survive and he proved to be a compliant
"opponent." But against a determined foe who is there to win, will Pacquiao
have the same level of dominance? It's unlikely, but he only needs to get the
better of seven rounds to win the fight.
2.
Pacquiao can't fall behind early.
Keith
Thurman is a rhythm and confidence fighter. When in "boxer" mode, he
can comfortably win rounds with quick shots and a lot of movement. Although he
doesn't sit down on his punches like he did earlier in his career, he still
features enough sizzle with his straight right hand, left hook and right uppercut
to impress judges. In addition, his jab has become a real weapon.
As
Pacquiao has aged, he no longer fights with the frenetic pace of his youth. His
offense is now more measured. But he needs to match Thurman's intensity in the
early rounds because there's another thing that Pacquiao has seemingly lost in
his advancing years: knockout power. If Pacquiao is down significantly at the
half-way point of the fight, the rest of the bout could wind up being
academic; he's only had one knockout in his last 15 fights. Now of course this
is boxing and anything can happen, but Pacquiao can't assume that the knockout will come. He must contest the early rounds. He needs to disrupt Thurman's
confidence and ensure that the fight remains close going into the back half of
the match, where his composure, pacing and experience should come in
handy.
3.
Thurman needs to limit prolonged exchanges.
Although
Thurman has considerable hand speed and power, he has gotten himself into
trouble throughout his career during prolonged exchanges. Fighters as diverse
as Jesus Soto Karass, Diego Chaves, Robert Guerrero, Danny Garcia and Josesito
Lopez have hurt him during these exchanges. Whether it's Thurman's lack of
respect for his opponents, falling in love with his power, or a
combination of both, he provides opportunities for his opponents to land
their best shots.
Thurman
must respect Pacquiao’s ability to counter, specifically his straight left hand
and right hook. Hitting-and-running will be his best way forward to avoiding
big shots and piling up points. The less he engages in a war, or even prolonged
skirmishes, the safer he will be and the likelier that he will win the
fight.
4. What
happens when Thurman gets hurt?
Thurman
displayed some troubling signs in his last fight against Lopez. It's not just
that he got tagged, but it's how he reacted after getting hurt. He didn't tie
up and instead often backed straight up, allowing Lopez to follow him with additional
big shots. He spent too much time languishing on the ropes. Yet there were other points where he
literally ran around the ring burning off tons of energy. That Thurman was
able to survive is beside the point. What happens if he gets hurt in the third
round? He can't run around the ring for nine rounds and expect to win the
fight.
Some of
these, frankly, amateurish habits were concerning from a veteran fighter like Thurman. When hurt he layered bad choices on top of bad choices. He needed to
tie up, to break Lopez's momentum, but in the moment of truth, he exacerbated a
bad situation.
As noted earlier, Pacquiao is no longer the wrecking machine of yesteryear, but he certainly possesses enough power to hurt opponents. In the latter stages of his career he's been content to cause damage, and then let the rest of the fight play out, but I'm not sure if he has that luxury against Thurman. Yes, wounded prey can be dangerous, and chasing after a hurt Thurman does involve risk, but there are no guarantees that Pacquiao will have multiple bites at the apples against a weakened foe. It's certainly possible that Thurman can catch a second wind and continue to box-and-move his way to a win. Pacquiao has to attack a wounded Thurman with urgency.
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Photo Courtesy of Premier Boxing Champions |
As noted earlier, Pacquiao is no longer the wrecking machine of yesteryear, but he certainly possesses enough power to hurt opponents. In the latter stages of his career he's been content to cause damage, and then let the rest of the fight play out, but I'm not sure if he has that luxury against Thurman. Yes, wounded prey can be dangerous, and chasing after a hurt Thurman does involve risk, but there are no guarantees that Pacquiao will have multiple bites at the apples against a weakened foe. It's certainly possible that Thurman can catch a second wind and continue to box-and-move his way to a win. Pacquiao has to attack a wounded Thurman with urgency.
5.
Fresh legs vs. veteran savvy.
Thurman
has a nine-year age advantage over Pacquiao and is the fighter with the
superior foot speed. Even after he was out of the ring for nearly two years, he displayed a great motor. And if Thurman is
determined to stink out a win via running, I'm not sure that there's much Manny can do about it at this stage of his career. Fortunately for Pacquiao,
Thurman remains a fighter caught in between styles. Part of Thurman wants to
entertain, while the other realizes what he needs to do to win.
Pacquiao’s
main advantage in this fight will be his big-fight experience. He understands
the grueling nature of a 12-round clash against top opposition. He has
significant advantages in poise and pacing. There will be points where Thurman will
stop running around the ring. Thurman will allow Pacquiao into the fight during
a mano-a-mano fight sequence. And Pacquiao has the experience to take
advantage of these opportunities. 40-year-olds shouldn't be
able to compete with among the best in a division, especially at welterweight, but Pacquiao is a historic
exception. Although his athleticism might have atrophied to a degree, his exceptional boxing craft
and Ring IQ remain. He probably has forgotten more about boxing than Thurman
will ever know. Of course, knowledge and the physical application of that
knowledge are two different notions entirely.
Prediction:
As I
said on my recent podcast, I think that the fight will be Thurman's to lose, but he
very well could lose it. Thurman's athleticism and willingness to box in an
unpleasing style will be big assets. With that said, he will deviate from
his game plan at some point. Either due to machismo or overconfidence, he will stand in the pocket a little too long and Manny will hit him with a
counter shot that will rock his world. At that point all bets are off.
I think
that the fight will ultimately be decided by when (not if) Pacquiao hurts Thurman.
If it's early in the bout, Pacquiao can step on the gas and continue to do
damage. But if it's in the back half, it may be too late for Pacquiao to take
it on the cards. It will be essential for Thurman to stay with the game plan
and limit exchanges – the less that he freelances the better off he will be. When
the final scores are tabulated, I think that Thurman will have garnered just enough
rounds on the cards to win a decision, but I expect Pacquiao to have the better
moments in the fight. On a round-by-round basis, Thurman will squeak by, but Pacquiao will be what we remember after the weekend.
Keith
Thurman defeats Manny Pacquiao by unanimous decision...and the crowd boos.
Adam Abramowitz is the founder and head writer of saturdaynightboxing.com. He's a member of Ring Magazine's Ring Ratings Panel and a Board Member for the Transnational Boxing Rankings Board.
Adam Abramowitz is the founder and head writer of saturdaynightboxing.com. He's a member of Ring Magazine's Ring Ratings Panel and a Board Member for the Transnational Boxing Rankings Board.
snboxing on twitter. SN Boxing on Facebook.
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