A scintillating All-Mexican showdown takes place on Saturday at the
T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas between Saul
"Canelo" Alvarez (48-1-1, 34 KOs) and Julio Cesar Chavez, Jr.
(50-2-1, 32 KOs). The fight sold out in a matter of hours and Vegas will be packed with fight fans for Cinco de Mayo weekend, a traditional date for big boxing matchups. Canelo-Chavez pits the two grand names of Mexican boxing
against each other in a battle for supreme bragging rights. No title belts will be on the line, just pride. The fight will be
contested at a catchweight of 164.5 lbs., with significant penalties for Chavez
if he fails to make the contractual limit.
No manufactured drama has been needed in the build up to the
fight as the two combatants harbor genuine antipathy towards each other. Chavez, the scion
of perhaps the most famous Mexican boxer of all time (Julio Cesar Chavez, Sr.)
still maintains the support of millions of fight fans who idolized his
father. Canelo, at only 26, is one of the genuine superstars in the sport and fancies himself as the rightful heir to Floyd Mayweather's title as the biggest boxing draw in America. The
fighters hail from different parts of Mexico (Canelo from Guadalajara and
Chavez from Culiacan) and once upon a time their careers were built on rival Mexican boxing networks. Both want to assume the mantle of the most popular Mexican fighter of
this era.
To this point, Canelo's star has shined the brighter of the two.
Winning multiple titles at junior middleweight and becoming the lineal middleweight
champ (with his only loss coming to Floyd Mayweather, no crime in that), Canelo
has beaten several notable fighters during his ascension to the top of the
boxing food chain. Chavez did win a belt at middleweight, but he's never
beaten an elite fighter. In his last high-profile fight in 2015, he refused to
answer the bell for the 10th round against Andrzej Fonfara. Despite
considerable talent, his training has frequently been haphazard. He's failed
numerous drug tests and has often lacked even the rudiments of professionalism.
A Canelo-Chavez fight had been discussed for many years but several factors,
including promotional differences, Chavez's weight escalation and animus
between the two sides, kept the bout from happening. However, Canelo, in the
midst of avoiding unified middleweight titleholder Gennady Golovkin (let's call it for what it is), needed a suitable dance partner that could guarantee a large payday;
enter Chavez. And although Chavez hasn't appeared to be in top form in recent years, he still possesses the body attack and reach to trouble smaller fighters. Canelo remains a comfortable betting favorite in the
fight but Chavez certainly has a vocal minority who believe that he has the attributes to get the job done.
Read below for the Keys to the Fight. My prediction will be at the
end of the article.
1. Chavez's state of mind
Chavez enlisted Hall of Fame trainer Nacho Beristain to help
prepare him for this fight. Beristain, who had such success with the Marquez
brothers, Daniel Zaragoza and many others, is not a trainer to be trifled with.
His fighters are almost always in great shape and are well prepared in the
ring. Beristain is a proud man and surely isn't taking this assignment as a
lark. He'll be there to win.
But let's face it: Freddie Roach couldn't control Chavez in
training camp and a number of top boxing coaches refused to work with the
fighter. Chavez's (lack of) training history speaks for itself. He rarely stays
in shape between fights and he's never adhered to a
monastic existence during camp.
Perhaps Beristain will be able to reach Chavez. Maybe Chavez will realize that Saturday's fight will be his last, best chance to make a
significant impression in boxing. It's possible that the Mexican rivalry will
motivate him like never before. However, one must also consider that Chavez
has a self-sabotaging streak. It wouldn't be shocking to hear negative stories about his training camp wafting throughout the boxing ether immediately after the
fight. In short, we
just don't know which Chavez will enter the ring on Saturday and this
uncertainly is a large selling point in the match. Sure, Chavez might put forth
a listless performance on Saturday but what if he's the same guy who stopped
Andy Lee and came within seconds of knocking out former middleweight king
Sergio Martinez? That guy has a shot. Right?
2. Size and weight
Prior to this fight, much had been made about Canelo's
preferred weight. Even though he had wrestled the middleweight title from
Miguel Cotto, Canelo has never weighed in at more than 155 lbs. for a fight. His
team insisted that he wasn't a full-fledged middleweight and he dropped down to win
yet another title at junior middleweight. But now suddenly he will be fighting
on Saturday in the super middleweight division.
Although much of Canelo's weight demands smack of
gamesmanship (the term "Caneloweight" was coined to denote this phenomenon), he will have a significant
weight disadvantage on Saturday. And although I never believed Golden Boy
Promotions' spin that Alvarez wasn't a middleweight (he routinely stepped into the ring around 170 lbs.), he's also not a cruiserweight. Chavez has ballooned
to over 180 lbs. on fight night. He has a much larger frame than Alvarez does
and he uses his physicality to tire opponents, leaning on them and
attacking their body. Chavez will also have advantages in height and
reach. His long jab will be a factor and his opponents often make the mistake
of believing that they are out of range against him only to get tagged by his probing straight right hand.
However, all of this is moot if Chavez comes into the fight as a
dried-out skeleton. He hasn't weighed in at 164.5 lbs. or lower in five years. It's
unlikely that he's really sniffed that weight since facing Martinez back in
2012. If he really struggles to make the catchweight limit, all of his
advantages will be for naught. He won't have the energy, agility, or endurance
to launch a consistent attack. If Chavez does in fact make weight, the question
will be did he shed pounds the correct way, or did he have to go on a prolonged
hunger strike to get below the limit. This factor will play a large role in how
much success Chavez has on Saturday.
3. Canelo against a puncher
You won't find many punchers on Canelo's resume. Erislandy Lara
could certainly hit hard, but he spent most of his fight with Alvarez avoiding
exchanges. Cotto was a strong puncher at welterweight and below but he doesn't really pack a huge punch at 154. Pound-for-pound, Chavez isn't necessarily a huge
puncher. Many of his knockouts have come against overmatched guys and/or
smaller fighters. And let's remember that Canelo will certainly be the undersized one on Saturday.
We don't know if Canelo can take a good punch from a guy who could
be 185 lbs. on fight night. And forget the head shots for a moment, Chavez can
unleash a vicious body assault, with his left hook to the body being his
primary weapon. Can Canelo withstand a body attack from a much bigger
guy?
Canelo has demonstrated a sturdy chin throughout his career but weight
classes do matter in boxing. At a certain point, Canelo's chin could betray
him, especially against a much bigger fighter. Will that happen on
Saturday?
4. Canelo's boxing skills
Certainly the blueprint for Canelo will be to box Chavez and avoid
prolonged exchanges on the inside. He'll have to get in-and-out of the pocket
with quick flurries. His jab and right hand to the body will be significant
weapons in attacking Chavez. In addition, Canelo needs to be patient. Chavez's
footwork can be crude and he often misjudges range, reaching with his punches or even jabbing from too close. Canelo will
have opportunities to counterpunch. It's incumbent for him to remain poised
in the ring. As he waits for Chavez to make mistakes, he can score with quick
single punches and brief combinations. These don't have to be big shots but
they just have to land.
Although Canelo isn't necessary fast on his feet, he understands
how to use angles to initiate offense and how to cut off the ring (as long as
that opponent isn't Mayweather). Canelo will need to use the ring to his
advantage on Saturday. He'll have to circle Chavez and must leave the pocket
once he's finished his work. If Chavez decides to fight off the back foot
(which is a technique that he's used in the past), Alvarez will need to apply
smart pressure without falling into Chavez's traps. Again, Alvarez will be
best as a counterpuncher on Saturday. His lead punches should be effective but
vanilla. His goal should be to force Chavez into making mistakes. Once this happens, Canelo can use
his creative combinations to assert his superiority in the
ring.
5. Pride
Pride will be a double-edged sword on Saturday. For Chavez,
perhaps this fight will inspire him to come into the ring in the best shape of
his career. He'll know how much is riding on this opportunity. Should he win,
he'll return home to an adoring crowd and will finally get universal
respect from the boxing community. For Alvarez, perhaps pride could be a
negative factor for this fight. I'm sure that he wants to put on a show for his
fans. No doubt it will be important for him to assert his dominance over
Chavez. But will these urges lead to taking unnecessary chances and making mistakes? Will he get overeager?
Emotion will probably help Chavez on Saturday. His fans will push
him, goad him, force him to dig down. Canelo's supporters will certainly be
loud as well. But Canelo will be at his best boxing, taking away the frenzy of
the crowd (especially early in the fight). Canelo doesn't want a war and
shouldn't let one develop. However, if Canelo gets dragged into that type of
fight, you can bet that his sense of pride will have gotten the better of him.
Canelo usually runs very cool in the ring but Saturday isn't a typical fight.
If he loses his composure in the ring because of machismo, that will provide
Chavez with a significant opportunity to win.
Prediction:
The optimist in me says that Chavez will make weight and will be
in at least suitable shape for the fight, but I wouldn't bet my house on that. All joking aside, I strongly believe
that Chavez will feed off of the crowd and will be most dangerous in the first
half of the fight; let's say from rounds three to six. I think that he'll even have
some moments where he'll land some authoritative shots – snapping Canelo's head
back with the jab, going to his body with the left hook and surprising him with
some right hands from range.
Ultimately, this match will be won by the fighter who's acted like a professional throughout his career, the one who's consistently trained and made weight. In the second half of the fight, Chavez's emotional high will dissipate and he'll be left with flagging energy and stamina issues. Although I expect Canelo
to have some good stretches early in the fight as well (scoring here and there and winning
the ring generalship battle), it's in the back half of the fight where he will really separate himself. Eventually, he'll start to exploit holes in Chavez's defense as
Junior tires. As the fight progresses, Canelo will land his scintillating counters with
more regularity. I expect him to dominate the final third of the bout. I think that pride will help push Chavez to the final bell but
there will be no uncertainty as to whom won the fight.
Saul Alvarez defeats Julio Cesar Chavez, Jr. by unanimous
decision.
Adam Abramowitz is the founder/head writer of saturdaynightboxing.com.
He's a member of the Transnational Boxing Rankings Board.
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