Saturday
offers fight fans two significant boxing cards, headlined by Manny Pacquiao
(56-5-2, 38 KOs) defending his welterweight title against Chris Algieri (20-0,
8 KOs) in Macau, China and Nathan Cleverly (28-1, 14 KOs) rematching Tony
Bellew (22-2-1, 14 KOs) in Liverpool, England. Both bouts feature compelling
style matchups. For Pacquiao, one of the sport's true superstars, he faces a
unique challenge with junior welterweight titlist Algieri: a youthful,
intelligent and rangy jabber with excellent movement. Throughout Pacquiao's
illustrious career, he has yet to take on a fighter with Algieri's dimensions.
The bout will take place at a catch weight of 144 lbs.
Cleverly-Bellew
II is a return to one of boxing's most spirited grudge matches; Cleverly won the
first battle by majority decision in 2011. Cleverly and Bellew mesh together in the ring exceedingly well – Cleverly has the boxing skills and foot speed
while Bellew has the heavier hands. An added dimension to the rematch is that
the fight will be contested at cruiserweight (the first one was at light
heavyweight).
Both
bouts should produce their share of fireworks. Read below to for my previews
and predictions for the fights.
PACQUIAO-ALGIERI
What's at
stake?
For
Pacquiao, he must confirm that Father Time isn't knocking on his door. After
picking up an excellent win over Tim Bradley earlier in the year, Pacquiao
reestablished himself as a top prizefighter. However, Bradley's poor game plan,
remaining stationary and trying to win with his only moderate power, played
into Pacquiao's hands. At 35, Pacquiao is much closer to the end of his career
than he is the beginning. His foot speed isn't what it once was and Algieri's
footwork and reliance on his reach could produce some significant difficulties
for Pacquiao if he can't effectively cut off the ring. A loss for Pacquiao
would severely hinder his bargaining position for a 2015 mega-fight, against
guys like for Juan Manuel Marquez or Floyd Mayweather.
Algieri
wants to establish that his split decision win over Ruslan Provodnikov wasn't a
fluke, a product of two kind judges. The fight had wildly divergent scores (I
thought that Algieri lost handily) and with that result Algieri enters
Saturday's contest as one of Pacquiao's weaker challengers on paper.
Nevertheless, Algieri gets his big shot on Saturday and he does possess the
types of tools that could provide for an intriguing fight. If he beats
Pacquiao, he will become a huge player in the sport.
The major
question for each fighter:
Does
Algieri have enough of an offensive arsenal to win seven rounds?
Manny
Pacquiao’s punches are eye-catching. Constantly coming forward, throwing fast
and accurate combinations, Pacquiao connects with judges. Algieri's
style is more of a negative one, boxing off of his back foot, moving along the
ropes to evade prolonged exchanges and popping his jab as if his life depended
on it. Against Provodnikov, who had bad footwork and problems cutting off the
ring, Algieri used spacing and athleticism to stick and move. He also did
feature a right hand and a left hook. They're accurate punches but shots
without power; he rarely sits down on them. Algieri is going to have to do
enough offensively to convince two judges to give him seven rounds. Facing a
fighter as friendly to judges as Pacquiao is will be a tall order.
Can
Pacquiao consistently cut off the ring?
If he
can, it's an easy fight. If he can't, Algieri could have some real success. As
a corollary to this question, Pacquiao will have to fight close to three
minutes a round. During dead spaces, Algieri will fire off his jab and if Manny takes too much time off during rounds...well, you can see a
scenario where Algieri could start to pile up points. What may be more
troubling than the decline of Pacquiao’s foot speed is his diminished work
rate. Often, he's now down to 40-45 punches a round, which is a big drop from
his peak. If Pacquiao’s not active enough, Algieri could jab him to death. So,
it's not just if Pacquiao can cut off the ring, but, does he have the desire to
keep doing it for 36 minutes?
Any
X-Factors worth considering?
Freddie
Roach was in Provodnikov's corner for the Algieri bout. I'm sure that Roach
feels that his fighter didn't lose the match but that result is now in the
past. More importantly for Pacquiao is that Roach has had a first-hand look at
Algieri's strengths and weaknesses in the ring and Roach is one of the better
trainers in the sport at preparing a game plan (specifically an offensive one).
If Manny still has his athleticism, Roach will provide him with an excellent
blueprint for success.
Another
factor worth considering is how Algieri will respond to the bright lights.
Let's face it: a year ago he was a Long Island club fighter who was happy to
sell 1,000 tickets to a show. Now, after months of promotion, media scrutiny
and buildup, it's unknown how he will react to such an imposing atmosphere. The
big fights can sometimes make Pacquiao's opponents do weird things (Bradley and
Clottey are recent examples). Will Algieri have the mental toughness and
discipline to execute when all of boxing's eyes are watching him?
The
verdict:
Pacquiao
defeats Algieri by unanimous decision – something like 117-111, nine rounds to
three.
CLEVERLY-BELLEW
II
What's at
stake?
Bragging
rights. This fight has all the makings of a classic British drama – entitlement,
envy, revenge, retribution. It could be a Merchant-Ivory production for the
pugilist class. Cleverly was one of Frank Warren's prized prospects. He's the
fighter who did just enough to eke out a win three years ago and has won a
world title belt. Bellew probably believes that Cleverly's belt should have
been his. Plus, these two just don't like each other whatsoever. Yes, the
victor of this contest could go on to fight for a cruiserweight title but for
these two fighters, the real glory comes on Saturday.
The major
question for each fighter:
Can
Cleverly fight intelligently?
Cleverly
has a maddening flaw throughout his career: he voluntarily relinquishes his
advantages. In the Bellew bout, Cleverly dominated whenever the action was on
the outside yet he insisted on taking the fight right to Bellew, giving his
opponent opportunities that he otherwise wouldn't have had. If Cleverly boxed
and moved, he would have won that fight far more easily than he did; however,
intelligence isn't his calling card in the ring. Similarly, against Sergey
Kovalev, Cleverly failed to respect Kovalev's power and stood directly in front
of him, leading to a massive beatdown. Although it's quite possible that he
couldn't have beaten Kovalev under any circumstances, he picked perhaps the
worst possible strategy to try to win the fight. Cleverly still has speed,
reach and technical advantages over Bellew but will he use them?
Will
Bellew's power at cruiserweight swing the fight in his favor?
Bellew
has knocked out both of his opponents at cruiserweight, albeit against lesser
opposition. He believes that he's much more powerful at the higher weight
class. During the Cleverly fight, Bellew landed a number of his best right
crosses, but they weren't enough to lead him to victory. However, at the new
weight, it's certainly possible that his power will be an even more significant
factor in the fight. Furthermore, Cleverly's chin hasn't been adequately tested
since his loss to Kovalev. Perhaps Cleverly can't take Bellew's best punch at
cruiserweight. If Bellew can get to Cleverly's chin, the fight could very well
be his.
Any
X-Factors worth considering?
Bellew
will be fighting at home, so that certainly could be an advantage with the
crowd and judges. However, their first fight was also in Liverpool and Cleverly
was successful in winning a decision. The big-fight atmosphere could help or
hurt either fighter and it will be fascinating to see which one does a better job at following his game plan, placing himself in the best position to win.
The
verdict:
Cleverly defeats Bellew by unanimous decision, along the lines of 116-112, 8 rounds to 4.
Cleverly defeats Bellew by unanimous decision, along the lines of 116-112, 8 rounds to 4.
Adam Abramowitz is the head writer and founder of saturdaynightboxing.com.
He is also a member of the Transnational Boxing Rankings Board.
He is also a member of the Transnational Boxing Rankings Board.
Contact Adam at saturdaynightboxing@hotmail.com
No comments:
Post a Comment