For decades,
HBO Boxing reigned as the American gold standard for the sport. Producing stars
such as Mike Tyson, Oscar de la Hoya, Roy Jones, Manny Pacquiao and Floyd
Mayweather, HBO was the forum for boxing's best. It was boxing's Broadway or
Hollywood.
However,
HBO's position as the clear, dominant U.S. boxing network has significantly
eroded. The biggest star in the sport no longer fights on the network or
its pay per view arm. HBO has cut itself off from one of the top promoters in
the sport and almost always refuses to do business with boxing's best manager.
HBO's matchmaking and quality control have been spotty at best. Its broadcast
team has lost its critical eye to the action at hand, creating a wedge between
fighters and potential fans. The network launched a boxing show that was
somehow both overly solemn and ultimately frivolous. Times have certainly
changed for HBO and the luster of network's boxing program no longer shines as
brightly as it once did.
In short,
HBO is in a bind. With Showtime emerging as a serious threat to its dominance
in American boxing, HBO seems to be muddling along with its programming without
a coherent plan or strategy. And make no mistake; there are significant
challenges ahead for the network with its current roster of fighters, including
impending retirements, diminished capabilities and the lack of credible
opponents.
Its most
famous boxer (Manny Pacquiao) recently lost two fights and is most likely on
the back side of his career. One of its stalwart performers over the last
half-decade (Sergio Martinez) has been out-of-action because of injuries. Its
best fighter (Andre Ward) has already become a boxing broadcaster and has only
appeared in the ring twice in two years. Much of the new talent pipeline
(Gennady Golovkin, Sergey Kovalev, and Adonis Stevenson) doesn't have
natural American constituencies. In short, HBO is going to have to work hard to
make its new faces into bona fide pay per view attractions or legitimate boxing
stars. It would certainly help if the network thought it was worthwhile to
match them consistently in competitive fights.
This
article will examine these issues associated with HBO Boxing. From an
outsider's perspective, the piece will detail how HBO found itself in its
current quagmire and the contributing factors that continue to weigh down its
ability to ascend to its previous heights. I will conclude with some
suggestions for how the network could best move forward.
I. HOW
HBO BOXING GOT HERE
Part 1.
Haymon Fighters
In
understanding the context of HBO's current position, its recent past must be
examined. HBO currently doesn't do business with arguably the Top U.S. Boxing
promoter (Golden Boy) or the number-one manager in the business (Al Haymon).
Although HBO had some legitimate reasons to recalibrate its relationships with
these entities, its draconian measures to excise them from its airwaves create
many long-term challenges for the network. More importantly, these decisions
will hinder its ability to grow in the future.
Thus, I
will be delving into HBO's problematic past dealings with Haymon and Golden
Boy. Yes, many of these issues predated the current regime, but the new
leadership at HBO Boxing has arrived at solutions for Haymon and Golden Boy
that are far worse than the initial issues that prompted concerns in the boxing
community.
From my
perspective, a first sign of a fall from grace for HBO Boxing could be best
summed up with its failure to control the relationship, both in terms of
dollars and programming, with boxing kingmaker, manager and adviser Al Haymon.
Before entering boxing, Haymon was a music promoter, making a small fortune
filling arenas with many of the hot, contemporary R&B stars. His first
major boxer that he represented was Vernon Forrest, a solid welterweight who
became a titleholder in 2002 by upsetting Shane Mosley, an HBO Boxing darling.
Within a few years, Haymon started to spread his wings in boxing, representing
many of the best or up-and-coming African American boxers in the sport. Soon,
he would represent Floyd Mayweather, Jermain Taylor, Paul Williams, Andre Berto
and many other significant fighters of note.
These
fighters were certainly talented, Mayweather was already the best fighter in
the sport by mid-decade, but HBO seemed to be short-circuiting the development
of Haymon's fighters, fast-tracking them to stardom without the boxers having
the requisite qualifications or legitimacy in boxing to earn such a lofty
status. The network paid many of these fighters fees that far exceeded their
commensurate status in the sport. They were granted umpteen network
appearances, regardless of the quality of opposition.
In short,
HBO Boxing, under then-head Ross Greenburg, was often bidding against itself for the services of these unproven or unpopular fighters. The
preferential treatment of Haymon's boxers created a lot of ire among other
fighters, promoters and managers in the sport (to say nothing about the boxing
media or some of the more knowledgeable fans). How HBO handled the careers of Taylor, Berto and Williams was its most
egregious mistake in this area.
Jermain
Taylor
Taylor
was put forth as the heir-apparent to Bernard Hopkins at middleweight in 2005
despite limited opposition. And although he beat Hopkins twice
(controversially), that Taylor didn't look all that good didn't stop HBO from
jumping into the Jermain Taylor business with both feet. After the disputed
Hopkins fights, HBO sought legitimacy for Taylor and put him in with the next
best middleweight it could find (Winky Wright). Taylor somehow escaped with a
draw. Most had Wright winning the fight. Now the fighter was in need of some
severe rehabilitation, so the network found a junior middleweight (Kassim Ouma)
to shine against. Taylor won, but again, he didn't look overly
impressive.
Still,
the network was convinced that it really had something. So it kept featuring
Taylor despite a run of iffy performances and no mandate from the boxing
public. Next HBO brought in Cory Spinks, a junior middleweight titlist who had
done his best work at welterweight. To my eyes, as well as one of the judges,
Spinks won that fight. By now, Taylor was derisively referred to as Jermain
"Bad Decisions" Taylor, instead of "Bad Intentions." It was
cute name, but perhaps it also suggested the network's escalation of commitment
with the fighter. He would go on to appear on HBO three more times, winning
once more against a shot Jeff Lacy. In all, Jermain Taylor produced two excellent
fights for HBO – Wright and his first fight with Kelly Pavlik. But was that
worth his dozen appearances on the network or the millions of dollars invested?
HBO really pushed Taylor on the public, but he never became a popular figure or
an elite talent.
Andre
Berto
Berto may
have provided even less value than Taylor did. He started to appear on HBO in
2006. Here were seven of his early opponents on the network:
1. Miguel
Figueroa
2. Norberto
Bravo
3. Martinus
Clay
4. David
Estrada
5. Michel
Trabant
6. Miguel
Rodriguez (a title shot!)
7. The Ghost
of Steve Forbes
Not only
had Berto faced woeful opposition but he didn't resonate with boxing fans. He
couldn't draw anywhere and the only ones who seemed to think he was a star were
the brass at HBO Boxing. Finally given a solid opponent with Luis Collazo, many
thought that he had lost that fight (I actually had Berto winning by a point.)
Yet HBO Boxing remained undeterred, giving him Juan Urango, Carlos Quintana
(where he drew less than 1,000 fans for a home fight in Florida) and
Freddy Hernandez. Now we're at 11 HBO appearances – many millions were handed
out to Berto, and perhaps one quality opponent. Not until 2011 was Berto given
another quality opponent (Victor Ortiz). Berto finished up his HBO career in
2012 with 14 HBO fights, three memorable matches (Collazo, Ortiz and Robert
Guerrero) and only one big win (Collazo), which was debatable.
Paul
Williams
Williams
was another hot Haymon property who also debuted on HBO in 2006. In 2007, he
beat rugged welterweight titlist Antonio Margarito. He gave back whatever momentum
he had in that fight by losing a listless decision to Carlos Quintana in a
dreadful performance. Williams was so bad in that fight that the network didn't
even pick up the rematch. Yet Williams was soon back in the HBO fold. He next
went on a bizarre odyssey where he fought in different divisions (middleweight
and junior middleweight) without facing anyone truly threatening (Andy Kolle,
Verno Phillips and an ancient Winky Wright). Williams insisted that he could
still make welterweight – the sport's glamour division – yet the network didn't
compel him to do so.
Williams
had now fought on HBO over a half-dozen times. He was given big HBO purses, but
he still couldn't draw (notice a pattern here). For his next fight, he was in
the small room at Boardwalk Hall against Sergio Martinez (capacity under
3,000). Williams won a truly thrilling performance against Martinez (Lederman
and Kellerman actually had Martinez as the victor) but that was his last good
performance on the network – four more followed. In short, for the dozen or so
appearances on HBO, Williams had two memorable wins (Martinez I and Margarito)
a memorable loss (Martinez II), a memorable robbery (Erislandy Lara) and a
memorable stinker (Quintana I). That's not a lot of value for another one of
its prized "Stars."
Keep in
mind that HBO was functioning in a limited budget environment in these years.
Thus, a large part of the HBO Boxing budget was spent on these (and other)
Haymon fighters who lacked a substantial following and provided bad value in
terms of entertaining fights. The whole HBO Boxing marketing apparatus – which
is considerable – failed to produce bona fide stars among these
fighters despite more worthy talents elsewhere in boxing.
This
situation caused Bob Arum, a promoter who didn't do business with Haymon, to
complain to the HBO brass and Time Warner (HBO's corporate parent) suits about
Greenburg. Arum felt that his fighters weren't getting the same opportunities
that Haymon's were and he threatened to take his fighters to Showtime.
Important seeds of doubt were planted in Time Warner regarding Greenburg's
stewardship and the inability of HBO Boxing to properly negotiate with Al
Haymon or identify the right boxers to support with its marketing muscle.
Part 2.
Golden Boy, the Loss of Manny Pacquiao and Ross Greenburg
After
boxing exclusively on HBO pay per view throughout the '00s, Oscar de la Hoya
shrewdly negotiated a return to the HBO World Champion Boxing platform. In
theory, de la Hoya's appearance would be free for HBO's subscribers and the
fighter (who really needed a win) and the network could benefit. For providing
HBO with this service, de la Hoya, a nascent boxing promoter (under the Golden
Boy Promotions banner), negotiated a three-year output deal for his promotional
company on HBO Boxing. The deal granted his company a specific number of fights
on the network over the duration of the contract. Steve Forbes was picked as de
la Hoya's opponent and the fight was a non-competitive disaster; the ratings
were only ho-hum. HBO Boxing sold off a lot of treasure in this transaction to
get a measly return.
As a
result of the deal, Golden Boy firmly established itself as
"most favored nation" status on HBO Boxing, to the detriment of
other promoters in the sport. Arum became increasing vexed by this deal and
decided to test the waters with Showtime for Manny Pacquiao's 2011 fight
against Shane Mosley. Showtime was (and still is) HBO's chief competitor, but
in 2011, Showtime had been generally out of the pay per view game. Pacquiao’s
sojourn to Showtime helped provide legitimacy for the second-place network
and the pay per view numbers were in line with what Pacquiao had achieved
with HBO.
Pacquiao’s
odyssey to Showtime made the Time Warner brass apoplectic. Arum and Greenburg were no longer on speaking terms and there was a real concern
that HBO would lose one of the clear faces of its boxing programming. Greenburg
had already embarrassed the network by his firing and then rehiring of longtime
broadcasting icon Larry Merchant (Greenburg was grooming Max Kellerman as
Merchant's replacement. However, the backlash was so severe that Greenburg
decided to have Kellerman and Merchant split duties on HBO Boxing.) By the
end of the year, Greenburg was gone. HBO Boxing's reputation had already taken
a hit with its lack of competitive matchups on its network, its generous
allotment to Al Haymon fighters and its poor return on the Golden Boy deal. But
the Pacquiao defection was too much for the network to continue on with the status
quo.
Part 3.
The New Regimes
In a
surprising development, Ken Hershman, the head of Showtime Boxing, was picked
to replace Greenburg. Hershman was an interesting hire in that HBO had a large
bench of in-house boxing executives. That HBO (in conjunction with Time Warner)
hired someone from outside the company was a clear sign of displeasure with
network's current boxing performance. Greenburg was a wonderful documentarian
and created mainstay HBO programming like "Real Sports," but he was fired
for his failures with HBO Boxing. Hershman had a reputation at Showtime
of doing more with less. He was loath to hand out long-term contracts. During his Showtime tenure, Hershman had a wonderful series of fights featuring Israel Vazquez and Rafael Marquez.
Perhaps
Hershman's greatest innovation at Showtime was the Super Six super
middleweight tournament, which featured a round-robin of most of the top fighters in the division. The Super Six was bold in its design with fighters
from four countries, representing five promoters, trying to determine
supremacy in the division. If nothing else, the audacity of the tournament
highlighted Hershman as an out-of-the-box thinker and one who could get
along with many of the top players in boxing.
Ultimately,
the tournament's greatest buzz was when it was first announced. Three of the
initial six fighters pulled out with injuries. Al Haymon negotiated step-aside
money for Jermain Taylor to leave, as well as a future appearance on
the network. Dirrell was also bequeathed a subsequent Showtime platform as
a condition for his exit. I'm positive that none of these developments were
what Hershman would have wanted in an ideal negotiating environment. (And these
dealings with Haymon certainly colored his thinking as he took the reins at
HBO.)
However
bold in its execution, the Super Six limped along and could be qualified as a
limited success at best. Although the tournament established the greatness of
Andre Ward, Hershman made a number of strategic blunders. He failed to include
one of the best in the division (Lucian Bute), he left it up to the promoters
to select arenas and dates (many of the fights were thrown together without
adequate promotion) and he insisted that the semi-finals and finals be in America,
where crowds and interest were lukewarm to the tournament. The finale of
the Super Six was held in Atlantic City, surely not the boxing media
capital of the United States. The finals failed to sell 10,000 seats and
ratings throughout the tournament were lackluster. Two years of marketing
dollars and broadcast commitments were made for the tournament; however, it
failed to captivate the American boxing public.
But at
least Hershman was innovative and if the Super Six was not an unqualified
success, at least it had its virtues. In addition, Hershman had a good nose for
fights in the smaller weight classes, putting together a bantamweight
tournament featuring great television fighters such as Abner Mares, Vic
Darchinyan and Joseph Agbeko. Many of these fights were among the best of
Hershman's Showtime tenure.
After
losing Hershman, Showtime countered with its own bold choice, hiring Stephen
Espinoza, a Stanford-educated attorney who represented Golden Boy. This move
was surprising in boxing circles in that Espinoza was known more as a
back-office guy and had a relatively small profile within the sport.
Certainly Espinoza would use his connections with Golden Boy to help bring its
talent over to his shop. Although Hershman worked with many promoters at
Showtime, he rarely used Golden Boy fighters on his network (Mares was a chief
exception). With these two hires, it was clear that the American boxing chess
board would change significantly.
II.
HERSHMAN TAKES THE REIGNS
Upon
taking over at HBO Boxing in early 2012, Hershman made no bold moves that were
visible to outsiders. He didn't fire boxing executives who were loyal to
Greenburg and business was essentially the same. Certainly his mandates were to
spend more wisely on talent than Greenburg did and make nice with Top
Rank/Arum.
With
those changes mentioned above, the network continued with few major new
initiatives. It had its annual Floyd Mayweather fight. Manny Pacquiao was back
in the fold. Younger talent like Tim Bradley, Adrian Broner and Saul Alvarez
played more of a prominent role, while old stalwarts such as Bernard Hopkins
and Miguel Cotto appeared on the network or its pay per view arm. Arum was
successful in convincing HBO to make Julio Cesar Chavez and Nonito Donaire
centerpieces of its boxing program. Interestingly, Berto and Williams each only
appeared on the network once.
But a number of HBO fighters started to leave the fold. Victor Ortiz faced
Josesito Lopez on Showtime. Alvarez later faced Josesito Lopez on the rival
network (Ortiz and Paul Williams were originally scheduled as opponents).
Cotto, now aligned with Golden Boy, met Austin Trout on Showtime. In
2013, the defections continued. HBO lost out on Alvarez-Trout and then a
bombshell was dropped: Floyd Mayweather spurned HBO Boxing to sign a six-fight
contract with Showtime, signaling a monumental shift in the boxing landscape.
This was a major defeat for HBO, which decided not to provide the same sort of financial guarantee to Mayweather that Showtime and its CBS parent did.
Recriminations
were fast. Within months, Hershman banned Golden Boy fighters from his network
(as well as practically every Haymon fighter, most of whom were now aligned with Golden Boy). Hershman had gotten tired of
being used as leverage for Golden Boy to get bigger deals at Showtime. He
had also felt betrayed by many of the core HBO fighters who had left to go
to Showtime. Shortly afterwards, Kerry Davis, the number-two man at HBO Boxing,
and the one who had often been criticized as being too chummy with Al
Haymon, left or was sent packing (depending on who was asked). Additional
executives were shuffled at the network.
By the
second quarter of 2013, Showtime had a true plan: it would be the network of
Golden Boy, the promoter with the deepest stable of American boxers. But what
was HBO's plan? What was its vision moving forward?
III.
FRESH FACES
With
Golden Boy at Showtime, HBO faced a real dilemma; who was left to build around?
HBO's existing assets, Manny Pacquiao (recently knocked out), Sergio Martinez
(injured), Andre Ward (injured) and Julio Cesar Chavez
(suspended), spent most of 2013 out-of-commission. Juan Manuel Marquez
showed no interest in getting back in the ring unless it was for a big fight.
Thus, HBO needed to fill its programming somehow.
Through
some design – and a fair bit of luck – HBO Boxing found four new fighters who
were able to energize its boxing offerings in 2013. HBO first televised Gennady
Golovkin, a Kazakh knockout artist, on Labor Day weekend in 2012 against
Gregorz Proksa, who was a late replacement for Dmitry Pirog. Ratings were
abysmal for that initial outing, but Golovkin impressed. A favorite of Max
Kellerman, Golovkin was given a big promotional push in 2013, appearing on the
network three times. By the end of the year, he was headlining the small room
at Madison Square Garden and he quickly established his television ratings as
among the best in boxing. Although his competition wasn't strong (Gabriel
Rosado, Matthew Macklin and Curtis Stevens), he certainly was successful in
captivating the American boxing public. HBO had "found one."
Canadian
southpaw Adonis Stevenson was an unlikely face of HBO Boxing on many fronts. He
wasn't young (35), he had been knocked out by a journeyman a few years back and
he was brought in to lose to Chad Dawson. However, Stevenson, moving up to light
heavyweight, destroyed Dawson in one round. After the win, HBO gave him two
more appearances on the network, and he didn't disappoint – not losing a round
in two knockout victories over former champ Tavoris Cloud and mandatory
contender Tony Bellew. HBO was damn lucky in finding Stevenson, but
sometimes when you roll the dice enough good things happen.
HBO's
third new face, Sergey Kovalev, was a savvier pickup. Kovalev had quickly established himself on a number of appearances on NBC Sports Network. HBO picked up
Kovalev's title-winning slaughter of Nathan Cleverly on tape delay and featured
him on the undercard of Stevenson-Bellew against Ismayl Sillakh, where Kovalev
scored a second-round knockout. Kovalev has yet to headline an HBO broadcast
but the light heavyweight is clearly a building block for the network and
promises a potential huge unification fight against Stevenson in the near
future.
Its
fourth new fighter, Ruslan Provodnikov (notice how none of these fighters is
American), shined in a spirited loss to Tim Bradley (almost everyone's fight of
the year) and a stoppage win over Mike Alvarado. HBO deserves credit for
initially buying Bradley-Provodnikov in that Provodnikov was coming up from 140
to 147 and had recently lost in a fight on ESPN. But let's be honest,
Provodnikov far exceeded expectations. He was expected to give Bradley rounds
but lose. No one thought he was as good as he demonstrated in 2013.
Thus,
with these four fighters, and a strong rematch between Brandon Rios and Mike
Alvarado, HBO had a solid year. While Showtime showed marked double-figure
ratings increases in 2013, at least HBO was able to maintain its existing numbers.
IV. HBO
BOXING'S MURKY FUTURE
Although
these four new faces helped HBO Boxing recover from the loss of Golden
Boy, are they, along with the network's existing stable, enough for HBO to
maintain its prominence in the sport? Showtime has clearly closed the gap in
terms of its ratings in 2013. In addition, with Floyd Mayweather, Showtime is
guaranteed to have the sport's largest platform twice a year, creating huge new
marketing opportunities for its other fighters (the Danny Garcia-Lucas Matthysse
fight was a prime example of this). From my perspective, HBO is in some real
trouble.
The 2014
first-quarter schedule for HBO Boxing is as glum as glum can be. January
started off with an overcooked all-Canadian matchup between Jean Pascal and Lucian
Bute, a fight that would have meant something far more significant in 2012
rather than in 2014. Pascal won the fight by being more active than the hesitant
Bute; however, it's not as if HBO is really in the Jean Pascal business. Sure,
he could be a B-side to Stevenson or Kovalev but Pascal's ceiling has already
been established by Carl Froch and Bernard Hopkins. He can be a fun fighter, but he
lacks a true knockout punch and can be outthought in the ring.
Next for
HBO Boxing was a matchup between Mikey Garcia and Juan Carlos Burgos. Garcia,
identified by Top Rank and HBO as a future star, is a counterpuncher who fights
in a weak division (junior lightweight). His best potential opponent,
Takashi Uchiyama, fights in Japan, and then only sporadically. Burgos was a
marking time opponent – a fighter who had fought to two draws in 2013; Burgos
won no more than two rounds from Garcia in a lopsided fight.
The
network will sit out most of February with the exception of a Miguel
Vazquez-Denis Shafikov title shot on HBO2. This fight will be tape-delayed from
Macau, China, a card headlined in the local market by Chinese fighter Zou
Shiming. Vazquez appeared on an HBO platform twice in 2012, beating Marvin
Quintero and Mercito Gesta. He's an extremely
talented fighter but also awful to watch, a runner in the worst sense of
the word. Shafikov is a come-forward, aggressive fighter, but there's a reason
why this fight is on an HBO2 card and not live. Who knows? Maybe HBO gets lucky
and finds something with Shafikov. However, I bet, win or lose, that
Vazquez makes this fight look ugly. It will be tough for Shafikov to
impress.
HBO's
next main event will be in March with a rematch between Julio Cesar Chavez
Jr. and Brian Vera. Let's call a spade a spade here. The only reason why this
fight is taking place can be attributed to HBO's commitment
to Chavez. Vera clearly won the first fight but was robbed. In addition,
Chavez's laughable refusal to make weight and give a shit about the first fight
makes showing the rematch a bit of a dubious proposition. Chavez draws ratings
– that’s why he's on the network – but this fight isn't really meaningful for
the grand strategy of HBO Boxing. Whatever Chavez does in the rematch, he
is still a name for bigger fish later in the year (such as Andre Ward
or Carl Froch). To be fair, there is a tasty fight on the undercard
between Orlando Salido and Vasyl Lomachenko.
On March
29th, Sergey Kovalev will face Cedric Agnew, a virtual unknown with a thin resume.
This is part of HBO's strategy to build up to showdown later in the year for
Stevenson-Kovalev. I understand the thinking of getting Kovalev a showcase
fight before that battle but the Agnew bout screams "mismatch."
What's the point of even broadcasting a fight if the opponent is an 8-1 or 10-1
underdog? Surely, there has to be someone more compelling than Agnew.
And as of
right now, that's it for HBO boxing in the first quarter of 2014. The
network will somehow broadcast five main events this quarter while only featuring one of the fresh faces that helped make 2013 a memorable year.
HBO refused to televise Golovkin-Adama from Monte Carlo, citing logistical
concerns. Ultimately, this fight slate isn't providing a lot of value
for HBO's subscribers (in fairness, Showtime has a dogshit first quarter in its
own right, but more on that later).
Sure, HBO
pay per view will have its successes this year with Pacquiao-Bradley II and
Cotto-Martinez, but for those who shell out dollars every month for the network,
what will they be receiving? What is in store for Andre Ward? What will the
network do with Provodnikov? Will HBO step up to ensure that Golovkin has a big
fight this year? There are tons of unanswered questions about the network's
future direction, both in 2014 and beyond.
V.
WHO ARE THE "HBO FIGHTERS" AND WHAT IS HBO'S STRATEGY?
To me,
the following fighters have been established as HBO Fighters:
1. Manny
Pacquiao
2. Sergio
Martinez
3. Tim
Bradley
4. Juan
Manuel Marquez
5. Andre
Ward
6. Julio
Cesar Chavez Jr.
7. Gennady
Golovkin
8. Adonis
Stevenson
9. Sergey
Kovalev
10. Ruslan
Provodnikov
11. Brandon
Rios
12. Mike
Alvarado
13. Mikey
Garcia
14. Nonito
Donaire
From
looking at this list, it's pretty clear that Rios and Alvarado will most likely
meet up for a third fight in 2014. HBO is in negotiations as we speak for
Stevenson-Kovalev for later in the year. The top-four guys on the list will
probably appear on pay per view at least once. This leaves a lot of open slots
for HBO World Championship Boxing and HBO Boxing After Dark.
But let's
examine the list further. Pacquiao has natural opponents with Bradley and
Marquez. The two light heavyweights have each other. Rios, Provodnikov and
Alvarado could conceivably move up and fight the welterweights if they don't
face each other. Maybe Golovkin gets a fight with Martinez and maybe he
doesn't. Garcia and Donaire are sort of in no man's land, lacking viable
opponents right now (Garcia may get a fight with Gamboa or a guy like Terence
Crawford this year).
But
ultimately, where is HBO going in 12 months? Maybe it pulls off Golovkin-Ward;
that's a tasty fight. I'd like Bradley-Provodnikov II, although I doubt it
happens. Marquez will probably have a last hurrah.
But where
does Mikey Garcia fit in? Will Donaire even be relevant as a top fighter a year
from now? Pacquiao might be a year closer to retirement. It's very possible
that Martinez and Marquez will be gone in 2015. The winner of Kovalev-Stevenson
will be left with what exactly? What long-term futures will Alvarado and Rios
really have in 2015 and beyond with the abuse that they have taken in the ring
and their lifestyles outside of it? In the next 12 months, Chavez may have very
well eaten himself out of being a real factor in the sport.
Contrast
HBO's position with that of Showtime, which has 12-15 fighters from 140-154
lbs. who are mostly television-friendly and have natural competitors. Danny
Garcia, Lucas Matthysse, Keith Thurman, Adrien Broner, Marcos Maidana, Shawn
Porter, Saul Alvarez, Erislandy Lara and the Charlo Brothers are all 31 or
younger and have big fights ahead of them. (I could have included five or six
more fighters on this list). Showtime could essentially sit back, mix-and-match
and plan out most of its programming for the next few years. Sure, the network
will have to find some opponents for Leo Santa Cruz, Abner Mares, Omar Figueroa (who could move
up to 140 soon) Peter Quillin, Deontay Wilder and Bernard Hopkins, but most of
its tough work is done. Showtime is well-positioned for some tremendous fights
from its core 140-154 fighters over the next few years.
From a
programming standpoint, HBO has some real work cut out for itself to better
what Showtime already has lined up. But HBO's situation isn't hopeless. There
are both short-term and long-term solutions for the network which could ensure
that it maintains its position as American's top boxing network.
Here are five recommendations:
VI.
FIXING HBO
1. Extend
an olive branch to Golden Boy.
Let's
face facts. HBO's current quagmire is much of its own doing. Caught up in egos
and slights, HBO expelled Golden Boy. Fine, Hershman made his point. But for a
long-term strategy, ignoring the promoter with the deepest bench of American
talent is completely foolish. Sure, Showtime most likely won't let many of the
Golden Boy fighters from 140-154 escape to HBO, but what about the Golden Boy
fighters from other weight classes? Who is a natural opponent for Hopkins after
Shumenov? What's on tap for Peter Quillin or Deontay Wilder? These are
excellent opportunities for HBO to bring good fights to its subscribers, if
Hershman and Company could just get over themselves.
Obviously,
Golden Boy and Top Rank won't work together, but there are many potential fights
to bring Golden Boy into the fold without forcing a Bob Arum-Richard Schaefer
pissing contest. Here are three opportunities they should pursue this year:
1. Gennady
Golovkin-Peter Quillin
2. Stevenson-Kovalev vs. the
winner of Hopkins-Shumenov
3. Deontay
Wilder
These
opportunities speak for themselves. None would need to be on pay per view and a
lot of value, buzz and excitement would be created for its subscribers and
those in the boxing community. As far as Wilder, HBO has already dipped its toe
back into the heavyweight division. Wilder would help the network make a
real push in the future (more on that a little later).
Sure, HBO
still holds some grudges against Golden Boy and Al Haymon, but if Hershman is
serious about doing the best job possible for the HBO Sports, he needs to act
like a professional and ensure that he has the best product for its subscribers
within his economic constraints. Currently, the quality of HBO Boxing
programming is not as good as it could be, and this reality won't improve over the
long-term if Hershman continues to shut Golden Boy out.
2. Pay
for Some Real Opponents.
If HBO is
really invested in Golovkin, Kovalev, Stevenson and Garcia, they should invest
in these fighters by making competitive matchups for them. Let's face it: HBO hasn't had
to break the bank for Gabriel Rosado and Curtis Stevens. Tony Bellew and Cedric
Agnew were not major financial commitments. Juan Carlos Burgos and Roman
Martinez didn't command a high fee. And while it's been fun to watch HBO's new
faces, it would certainly be better to seem them tested.
HBO can't
fall back into the Berto/Taylor/Williams trap by propping up its new faces
without providing compelling television for its subscribers. Unfortunately, HBO
seems to be going down this route. If the network really wanted Daniel Geale to
fight Golovkin in April (and Geale had an excellent fight on HBO last year
against Darren Barker), was HBO ready to make that financial commitment to him? Has the network made a concerted effort to
try Felix Sturm? These fights aren't necessarily easy to make but has HBO done all
that it can in this area? Was Agnew the best opponent that HBO could find for
Kovalev, or was he just someone who was affordable? Hershman has certainly
stepped up to the plate for Andre Ward's opponents. Why hasn't he for others?
My issue
with Hershman here is that he seems to be bargain shopping where a show of
strength may serve him better. He works for the BMW of boxing networks but he
spends like he has KIA finances. And although he made his bones at Showtime by
being the scrappy underdog, being scrappy at HBO is a fast road to second
place. Showtime has upped its boxing budget. Espinoza has gotten buy-in from
CBS corporate to invest in the sport. Has Hershman been as successful with his
HBO/Time Warner bosses? Do they continue to see the value of the sport? Does he
have a plan to grow? Has he really made a good case?
So bring
Takashi Uchiyama over from Japan for Mikey Garcia. End the Golden Boy tiff and
give fans Golovkin-Quillin. Let's see Hopkins against Kovalev or Stevenson.
Stop penny-pinching with B-minus fighters. Hershman's mandate should be
compelling fighters in compelling fights. He is failing on one of those
fronts.
3. Invest
in competitive and untapped divisions like heavyweight and flyweight.
HBO has
correctly identified that there are a number of interesting heavyweights on the
scene, one or two of whom might go on to become something special once Wladimir
Klitschko retires. In the past few months, the network has featured Mike Perez,
Magomed Abdusalamov (which ended tragically for him), Bryant Jennings, Andy
Ruiz, Artur Szpilka and Carlos Takam. That's a nice start and HBO might have
something with Jennings, Ruiz, Perez and Takam. However, there are many others
like Tyson Fury, Kubrat Pulev and Dereck Chisora who can make compelling
television. You can see where Deontay Wilder, the undefeated knockout artist
and American Olympian, would be a great addition to this group.
The
network could certainly make a concerted push in this division, which
traditionally has yielded significant interest and ratings. Yes, the division
was historically weak from 2000-2010 but these new names may help it turn the
corner. The network should bring back a "Night of the Heavyweights"
card or two, featuring two or three matchups with these fighters. Hopefully,
one or two boxers emerge and there will be a real buzz in the division. Fury
is a natural self-promoter and fans will love/hate him very rapidly. Wilder's
right hand will make all boxing fans stand up and take notice. He's currently
languishing on Showtime undercards. Ultimately, HBO has the ability to be in
the driver seat for the next wave of heavyweights. With some good investments, the
division can provide a lot of dividends for HBO and its subscribers.
When HBO
went to Macau last year, it showed a tremendous flyweight fight between Brian
Viloria and Juan Estrada. With Estrada, they found a young fighter who clearly
has pound-for-pound level talent. The network featured him again later in the
year against Milan Melindo, another excellent scrap. Yet, HBO hasn't returned
to the 112-lb. division since that fight. Flyweight may be the best weight class in
boxing, featuring talents such as those mentioned above as well as
pound-for-pound fighter Roman Gonzalez, Akira Yaegashi, Giovani Segura, Edgar
Sosa, Hernan Marquez and others. I guarantee you that if HBO started
showing these fighters in a co-feature on a Boxing After Dark card, the network
and its viewers would get rewarded. Right now, HBO should consider a
Gonzalez-Estrada rematch. Their first fight was excellent (won by Gonzalez) but
Estrada has only gotten better.
In
addition, none of these fighters would break the bank. Throw a million dollars
at the division, similar to what HBO paid Edwin Rodriguez to be uncompetitive
against Andre Ward, and you might have three or four really excellent fights.
Sure, there is some bias against smaller fighters, but boxing fans have
responded over the years to Barrera, Morales, Pacquiao, Juan and Rafael
Marquez, Hamed and Arce. Gonzalez or Estrada could be the next smaller fighter
to really resonate with the public. It's time for HBO to find out. Showtime has
many of the best 140-154 lb. fighters in the world. If HBO corners the market
on the scintillating 112 class, it could create some solutions to its coming
programming void and provide some wonderful fights.
4.
Develop a Pipeline.
Before
Ross Greenburg was let go at HBO, he was in the planning stages for a new
prospect series that would have aired on HBO2. After his departure, the series
was shelved. (In fairness to the HBO brass, Greenburg already had continued a
bad pattern with this proposed series by guaranteeing programming dates to
promoters without having any fighters lined up.)
Although
it is certainly possible that Greenburg would have muffed up the execution, his
instincts for the series were correct. HBO had let its Boxing After Dark series
become a weigh station for its fighters to face unheralded and cheap opponents.
It continues to be the HBO star-grooming laboratory. And while there's value to
that for the network and fans, HBO isn't doing enough to find and cultivate
young talent.
There
should be a place where Felix Verdejo, Errol Spence, Oscar Valdez, Eddie Gomez,
Jose Benavidez, Jesse Magdaleno and Anthony Joshua can fight on HBO airwaves.
There is an exciting generation of young stars that are coming up the ranks and
HBO is missing an opportunity to get in early with these talents.
HBO has
done a wonderful job of building its boxing brand over the decades. It stands
for quality, the bright lights and, of course, the best. So why not get the
best prospects in the sport and put them on twice a year? Forge relationships
early. Putting them on primetime does that, talking to them at 5:30 p.m.
after they have fought on the sixth undercard fight of a pay per view doesn't achieve the same end. The compelling fighters of the future are there for the taking; HBO should jump on this
opportunity. And remember, HBO has almost a dozen stations to program. I'm
sure that the network can find somewhere in its universe of channels for a new
prospect show. Put it on HBO Latino, put it on HBO2, but put it on.
5. Time
to change its broadcast personnel.
Unfortunately,
the Max Kellerman experiment isn't working, and as someone who used to be a big
Kellerman fan, it's difficult for me to say that. Kellerman was so good on Friday
Night Fights with Brian Kenny. The banter that the two hosts had was as good as
you will see in the sport. But on the live fight broadcasts, Kellerman does
boxing fans several disservices.
1. He fails
to call the action
2. He makes
unfair and often ridiculous comparisons
3. He is too
busy playing matchmaker
4. He fawns
over Andre Ward and Roy Jones
Kellerman
seems to be in a big hurry to provide context and significance for every fight.
He overhypes fighters such as Paul Williams and Yuriorkis Gamboa. (This pattern
may be continuing with Golovkin and Kovalev. We haven't really seen them in
tough yet.) He compares Jorge Linares to Sugar Ray Robinson just rounds before
Linares gets knocked out. When a fighter makes his debut appearance on HBO,
Kellerman immediately makes a determination on air as to whether or not HBO
audiences should want to see the fighter again. None of this really addresses
the actual fight at hand.
Kellerman
can sometimes come across as an overhyped fanboy with a microphone. He lacks
critical detachment, patience and dispassion. He has never developed a decent
on-air rapport with Jim Lampley or Roy Jones. He can be cloying in his
praise of Jones or Andre Ward. In fact, he significantly reduced the fight
experience of Froch-Kessler II by repeatedly bringing up the fact that Ward is
the "real champ" at super middleweight. Where Merchant would spar
with George Foreman or Jones after they said some gobbly-gook, Kellerman seems
too differential to the former fighters, or sometimes he will go after Jones on
some really bizarre bit of fight minutia. In short, he hasn't figured out when
to put Jones and Ward on the spot and when to back off. I'm not sure what he
accomplishes on the broadcast.
The
current HBO broadcast reeks of too much homerism. Lampley is passionate and has
always had his favorites – including De la Hoya, Trinidad, Taylor, Pacquiao and
others. His natural enthusiasm was magnificently counterbalanced by Merchant's
skepticism; it was a wonderful combination. Now, with Lampley waxing on about
Golovkin and Kellerman marveling about GGG's historic power, no one is there to
say, "Hey, let's calm down. He really hasn't beaten anyone yet." This
effect creates a distance between the viewer and the action. Most boxing fans
are excited about Golovkin and Kovalev, but they aren't ready to anoint them
yet as anything more than fun knockout artists. A sense of perspective on the
HBO broadcast team is certainly lacking.
Finally,
HBO needs to revamp or end "The Fight Game with Jim Lampley." Upon
its launch, I was incredibly excited to see HBO give an additional platform for
the sport. There is certainly enough to talk about. However, either live or in
the studio, the show has been a disaster at almost every term. Lampley, with
the solemnity of an undertaker, tries to squeeze too many topics into a
half-hour with very little depth. Although I have commended him for his stance
on performance enhancing drugs, the rest of the show is a hodgepodge of shallow
fighter interviews, unnecessary segments with Jones and Kellerman, and the trumpeting of future HBO fights.
The show
epitomizes sterility and doesn't fully capitalize on Lampley's interviewing
gifts or investigative chops. It also wouldn't hurt if someone told Lampley,
"Hey, boxing can be fun. You aren't reporting on hostage negotiations or
impending wars. Lighten up." Hershman needs a new producer for the show
and some fresh ideas. Absent that, he should can it. It was a wonderful idea
just poorly, poorly executed.
VII.
CONCLUSION
The HBO
boxing brand is not at a high point. Showtime has the best fighter in the sport
and a clear vision of where it wants to be in the next few years by showcasing
the 140, 147 and 154-lb. divisions. HBO has assembled a list of impressive
fighters on its network, but currently has no real solution of how best to
feature most of them. Yes, Pacquiao and Bradley have a couple of obvious fights
in the next few years and Stevenson-Kovalev will most likely happen, but I
don't know where HBO will be in 2015. The network is running out of younger,
compelling fighters. It also hasn't been willing to invest in real opponents to
showcase how good its current collection of fighters really is. The network's
refusal to work with Golden Boy has removed many exciting options for its
current boxers and limits future growth. In addition, its broadcast team,
with its reliance on hype and aggrandizement, now significantly trails that of
Showtime.
Ken
Hershman might be facing budgetary pressures from the Time Warner/HBO brass or
maybe he is used to bargain shopping, but he clearly isn't making the big moves
that are worthy of the HBO Boxing brand. Where is his vision? Where is the
enthusiasm? Where is the creativity that he demonstrated at Showtime?
In 18
months, the future of HBO Boxing could be very bleak. It's quite possible that
Marquez, Martinez and Pacquiao could be gone from the sport by then. Chavez and
Donaire might no longer be a factor in the upper echelon of prizefighting.
Alvarado and Rios may see a precipitous decline in their abilities from all of
their wars. Andre Ward doesn't seem to be too eager to get in the ring these
days. The network will be facing a huge programming void and I'm not sure if its decision makers realize how perilous its position is atop the boxing
landscape.
HBO still
does significantly better ratings than Showtime. Much of that can be attributed
to HBO's superior subscriber numbers to Showtime and the network's historical
success in boxing – it is still trading off of its boxing brand. But how long
will that good will last among boxing fans?
Ultimately,
fight enthusiasts want to see the best in compelling matchups and HBO has not
delivered the compelling part of that equation and many of its core fighters
haven't proven to be among "the best" yet – I would put Garcia,
Golovkin and Kovalev on this list. Rios, Alvarado and Chavez provide good value
when matched appropriately but their ceilings are pretty well established by
this point. Who knows how good Provodnikov really is or can be?
But HBO
has a way out of this morass. It can attempt to revive relations with Golden
Boy. Wilder, Quillin and Hopkins would be natural additions to HBO; these
fighters also fall out-of-line with Showtime’s core weight classes and may be
ripe for picking.
The
network can also be opportunistic with divisions like heavyweight and
flyweight. These weight classes should bring a lot of value to its subscribers
and maybe the network finds a new star or two. Plus, none of these fighters
would command overwhelming purses. This is both a good short-term and long-term
play for HBO.
In
addition, HBO has to test its current stars and identify the next ones. The
network lost its way with how it matched Berto, Williams and Taylor (to say
nothing of its matchmaking history with Roy Jones and Floyd Mayweather, at
least those were pound-for-pound talents). Golovkin is a fun fighter, but at a
certain point, fans will resent his lack of quality opposition. HBO currently
has a plan for Stevenson, Kovalev and Garcia (I guess Gamboa as an opponent
counts) but what happens after those fights? Is the network willing the spend
money to bring in real, live opponents, or will its fighters continue to get
umpteen showcase fights?
The young
talent pipeline is out there for whichever enterprising network wants to take
advantage of it. HBO should be investing in the young, good prospects of
tomorrow. By identifying and airing the next wave of elite fighters, the
network will create far more recognition and enthusiasm for them. A new
prospect show would help showcase these young guns and help the network
establish valuable connections with them.
Finally,
HBO needs to improve its boxing broadcasts. Max Kellerman needs some real work.
Someone must tell him that his role is not HBO's on-air matchmaker (especially
during fights) and that he's not paid by the silly. He shouldn't compare
Gregorz Proksa favorably to Sergio Martinez; he should be calling the action.
Kellerman's purpose isn't to remind Roy Jones and Andre Ward how good they were
or still are in the ring. He should provide some real insight to the fight at hand. If he can't, get someone new.
In addition, if Steve Weisfeld is on a show, use him. Figure out how to make him work on a broadcast. Weisfeld knows more about current judges and referees than Harold Lederman does; he should be the one telling us about them. If he's redundant, then only have Lederman or Weisfeld on the broadcast.
And
please, fix or gut "The Fight Game." The show isn't advancing
anyone's interests except Jim Lampley's. Make it more hard-hitting or go the
other way and, god forbid, add some lightness to it. But right now, it's a mess
of a broadcast and it insults the HBO Boxing brand. The network that has won
hundreds of Sports Emmys can certainly do a better job than this show in its
current form.
Across
the board, HBO is symptomatic right now of a lack of vision. The fighters and
broadcast talent are cobbled together without a clear sense of purpose or
intent. Showtime, so often the younger brother who was happy to have a seat at
the adult table, now wants to be the one to carve the turkey – and HBO. Will
HBO fend off its rival or will it shirk from the new competitive environment?
Will it coast like Roy Jones did throughout much of his career before being
knocked out in an unforeseen fashion, or will it rise up from disappointments
and setbacks to remain on top like Bernard Hopkins? It's up to HBO Boxing to
decide its fate. Its next 12 months are absolutely critical.
Contact Adam at saturdaynightboxing@hotmail.com
@snboxing on twitter
Follow Saturday Night Boxing on Facebook:
www.facebook.com/SaturdayNightBoxing
Adam Abramowitz is the head writer and founder of saturdaynightboxing.com.
He is also a member of the Transnational Boxing Rankings Board.Contact Adam at saturdaynightboxing@hotmail.com
@snboxing on twitter
Follow Saturday Night Boxing on Facebook:
www.facebook.com/SaturdayNightBoxing
Thank you for the quality analysis!
ReplyDeletegood article, except for the Max Kellerman thrash job. Roy Jones Jr is 1000 times worse than Max. RJJ's analysis is a recurring,"oooh, what a shot" and "there's a shot", with interspersed stupid nervous laughter
ReplyDeleteOn the one hand, this is the greatest piece of boxing journalism I have ever read. On the other hand, I agree with the previous comment: By the time the summary rolled around, I could no longer tolerate the hatchet job on Kellerman. Many of the knocks on him may be true, but I find them far from annoying or problematic. But the attack is less than viable- Kellerman does call the action. He routinely (in almost every round) mentions something of a technical nature involving a fighter's performance. And I appreciate his respect for Andre Ward and especially RJJ. But on RJJ- it's true that he's the one who sizes up the worst to his Showtime counterpart (Malignaggi). There is no comparison! That RJJ remains on air would seem to support Mr. Abramowitz's assertion that HBO lacks focus. Specifically, with its 90s P4P broadcaster, the network seems stuck in the past.
ReplyDelete