Saturday
brings the anticipated rematch between Carl Froch (30-2) and Mikkel Kessler
(46-2). Kessler won the first fight in Denmark in 2010 by a close, unanimous
decision. For the rematch, Froch will play host, with the fight in London's O2
arena. Since their matchup three years ago during the Super Six super
middleweight tournament, both fighters have gone in different directions. Froch
has continued to fight top competition (losing to Andre Ward but demolishing
Lucian Bute) while Kessler has knocked out lesser fighters (Brian Magee, Allan
Green).
To
the delight of boxing fans around the world, these two champions have decided
to face each other again. Does Kessler still have Froch's number three years
later? Will Froch's improvement in the ring be enough to take down one of his
chief rivals? Read below for the keys to the fight. My prediction will be at
the end of the article.
1. So, what's new?
In
my eyes, both fighters have made several improvements in the ring since their
first fight. Kessler has become much more effective with his left hook to the
body and he has also incorporated an uppercut. Although Kessler has always been
a skilled fighter, he primarily featured just a jab, straight right hand and
right hand to the body. Now, his arsenal is more well-rounded. In addition,
you'll notice that he's stands less upright in the ring, giving him the ability
to transition from defense to offense just a hair faster than he did earlier in
his career.
Froch
has improved in a variety of ways. He was once a notorious slow starter and
would grind down fighters to win. However, against Bute and Yusaf Mack, he
dominated fights from the onset. In addition, Froch has become a more versatile
fighter. He can box, rush in, slug, in-fight, use movement and feint. Although
he's not the most gifted athletic specimen in boxing, these added dimensions
make him a more difficult fighter to defeat than the version that Kessler saw
in 2010.
2. Kessler must be first.
Bute
made the strategic mistake on waiting on Froch to initiate offense. Because
Froch can rush in from bizarre angles with unconventional shots, he can be a
tough fighter to counter. Kessler, like Bute, is much better leading than
following. Kessler will look to set up his offense with his jab. He'll also
incorporate his straight right hand and left hook. Although he certainly can
counterpunch, that's not his strength as a fighter.
If
Froch is going to stay out of the pocket, Kessler must track him down and apply
pressure. This battle of ring generalship will be paramount in determining the
winner of the fight. Kessler must force the pace and the action. He needs to
make Froch fight three minutes a round and not let him engage only at spots.
Froch has a tendency to take breaks during rounds. Kessler must capitalize on
this downtime by initiating action.
3. Froch needs to take away Kessler's jab by staying
out of midrange.
Let's
face it. If it's a jabbing contest, Kessler will win. It's probably his best
punch and he controls much of the action with it. For Froch, he must make
Kessler beat him with other punches. Either by staying out or by getting all
the way in, Froch will probably be in a better position to win rounds. He's a
cagey fighter from the outside, where he can rush in and tag opponents with a
variety of shots. He's also a capable infighter, an area where Kessler is not
at his best.
Froch
needs to use the ring, circle both directions and feature movement to confound
Kessler, who is more of a straight line fighter (although not as rigid in this
regard as he used to be). The more unpredictable that Froch is in the fight the
better that he will do. A pocket should be an evil thing for Froch in this match.
That set up gives Kessler time to control distance and work from his strengths.
For Froch, make it sloppy, run some, grapple on the inside, but don't let
Kessler be in position to jab.
4. The late rounds.
With
the first fight seemingly up for grabs, Kessler was the boxer who had the big
12th round to secure the victory (in actuality, Kessler would have already won
the fight going into the final frame, absent a knockdown). Both fighters are
now in their mid-30s (Kessler – 34, Froch – 35) and are theoretically further
from their athletic peaks. Since the first fight, Froch has gone 12 rounds
against Arthur Abraham, Glen Johnson and Andre Ward while Kessler hasn't even
had a fight make it to the seventh. Froch performed well down the stretch
against Johnson (the Abraham fight wasn't close) and even had a few good
moments in the final third against Ward, even though that fight shouldn't have
been on the table – there was some bizarre scoring in that bout.
The
final third has a good chance to be the separator in this fight. Is it possible
for one of the fighters to drop his fatigued opponent? Who can stick with his
game plan in a hotly contested fight? Who needs to pull out a round or two to
make sure he secures victory? The answer to these questions will most likely
determine the winner of the match. Although Froch has gone harder rounds more
recently, one could make the case that there's less wear and tear on Kessler.
Ultimately, I'm not sure who the later rounds favor on paper, but it very well
may play a crucial role in the fight.
5. The home elements.
Froch
is the type of emotional fighter who really gains a lot from his home crowd.
Although this match won't be in Nottingham, it's clear that Froch will be the
overwhelming crowd favorite. This will help him perform in a tough match
against a worthy opponent. Kessler has fought many times outside of Denmark in
his career – America, Australia the U.K and Germany. He will not be overawed by
the pro-Froch crowd, but he won't have the advantage in the arena. It should be
noted that Kessler hasn't fought his best away from home. I'm not suggesting
that he crumbles when outside of Denmark, but his record is just a pedestrian
3-2.
The
officials for the match are a competent bunch with vast international
experience. Pete Podgorski may not have the highest name recognition among
American referees, but the Chicagoan has had a number of international
assignments over the past five years, including fights in South Africa,
Australia the Philippines and Canada. The three judges – Adalaide Byrd (USA),
Carlos Sucre (Venezuela) and Jean-Francois Toupin (France) – have tons of
title fight experience and are used to big events. Byrd can be an idiosyncratic
scorer but she's a fine judge without discernible biases. Toupin and Sucre both
get a lot of WBA assignments (Kessler, should be noted, is the WBA champion).
Toupin has judged scores of title fights in Europe. Sucre has judged mostly in his
home country and Central America, but he has also worked numerous Japanese
assignments. On paper, this is a fair slate of officials for this match.
Prediction:
By
following his blueprint against Lucian Bute, Froch has the formula to beat
Kessler, who can be a tad mechanical and isn't a great counterpuncher. Froch
needs to stay unpredictable and avoid repeatable patterns. If he follows this
game plan, he can take more than enough rounds to win. However, he must stay
busy and let his hands go. Kessler certainly will win some rounds in the fight.
By staying active and fighting three minutes each round, he will pick up a
number of frames on volume alone. However, in the trenches and along the
outside of the ring, I think he'll be outgunned. I see Froch landing the more
damaging shots and frustrating Kessler with his movement and offensive
flurries. It will be a competitive fight but the Froch will hear his name
called after the final bell.
Carl Froch UD Mikkel Kessler, along the lines of 116-112, or eight
rounds to four.
He is also a member of the Transnational Boxing Rankings Board.
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