Tonight marks the eagerly awaited rematch between
junior welterweights Brandon Rios and Mike Alvarado. Last October, the two
engaged in one of the best fights of 2012, where both fighters waged intense
combat over seven rounds. Ultimate, Rios' shots proved to be more damaging, and
he secured the seventh-round TKO victory. For tonight's match, will the fight
be a continuation of last year's memorable brawl, or will we see the bout play
out differently? Read below for my preview and prediction.
Quite honestly, Alvarado entered the first fight
with overconfidence. In his previous fight before Alvarado, Rios had escaped
with a dubious victory over Richar Abril. He had drained himself trying to make
weight and this partly explained his lackluster performance. (Alvarado either
overlooked this factor or didn't take the threat posed by Rios that seriously.)
To face Alvarado, Rios would move up to the junior welterweight limit.
Alvarado, who had been used to slugfests at 140, albeit against lesser
opposition, believed that his power and volume would be enough to overwhelm
Rios. Alvarado had advantages in height and reach but he gave them up to try
and impose his will on the inside. He didn't expect Rios to take his shots and
keep coming forward. He also was unable to adjust to Rios' lead right hands.
The fight illustrated Alvarado's inability to make
adjustments in the ring. It was reasonable to test Rios' chin at 140 and see if
the fighter had problems taking shots at the higher weight. Alvarado landed
barrages of his best power shots, but Rios wasn't dissuaded. Despite the
mounting evidence that Rios wouldn't fold, Alvarado believed that his power
would wear Rios down; in fact, the opposite happened. It was a severe miscalculation
by Alvarado. He needed to adjust his strategy and thinking in the fight but he
just couldn't overcome his initial overconfidence in his own power. There were
moments in the fight where Alvarado had success boxing from the outside and
using the ring to his advantage. However, as Rios kept advancing, Alvarado was
too content to trade in the pocket. Ultimately, his underestimation of Rios'
power and will led to his loss.
For Alvarado to have more success tonight, he needs
to change his approach. He must pick his spots. The more time he stands in
front of Rios, the more vulnerable he becomes. Alvarado needs to jab from the
outside, throw lead straight right hands and keep his combinations to no more
than three punches.
In fact, I'd like to see Alvarado throw fewer
punches per round than he did in the first fight. Instead of throwing 110
punchers per frame, I'd like to see that number come down closer to 70. By
using the ring and being more selective when engaging, he will limit Rios'
ability to win exchanges in the pocket. Rios wins fights by causing an
accumulation of punishment that his opponents can't overcome. By reducing his punch output, Alvarado will take far fewer of Rios' blows in return. Alvarado also
has a significant foot speed advantage from the outside. He needs to make Rios
expend a lot of energy to get into position to throw punches.
In order for Alvarado to win the fight, he has to
go for the decision. With his jab, flashy right hands, quick combinations and
ring generalship, he needs to count on the mercy of the judges.
The more he trades the better chance he has of losing.
This will be a tall order for Alvarado. The key for
him will not be machismo or toughness, but discipline. Alvarado fancies himself
as a tough brawler; he is that, but sometimes adjustments are needed to win
fights and prolong a career. I'm not sure if Alvarado has the ring awareness
and composure to stick with a more limited approach to engagement. If he does,
he has a real shot at picking up a close decision, but I wouldn't bet that
Alvarado can execute this game plan.
Rios needs to build off of the advances that he
made in their first fight. Often a slow starter, Rios moved his hands freely in
the opening rounds in October. He may still have been behind on the cards after
three rounds or so, but he inflicted a lot of damage that helped lead to the
eventual stoppage. In addition, Rios should open with lead right hands.
He needs to see if Alvarado made any adjustments to that punch. If Alvarado
still can't defend against it, the fight could be shorter than the first one.
Rios can be clumsy getting inside. He applies
constant pressure but he doesn't jab his way in or apply angles. He relies on
his solid chin and his ability to pick off shots here and there. In a perfect
world, I'd like to see Rios come in with a little more polish. He doesn't HAVE
to take as many shots as he does. The concern is that one day Rios' chin will
get cracked. But is Alvarado the man to do it?
I see the fight playing out a little differently
than the first one. I think Alvarado boxes a little more selectively in the
early rounds than he did in their last encounter and builds an early lead. (I
wouldn't be surprised if he's up 3-0). Ultimately, I see Alvarado getting into
bad habits with his lead; the old overconfidence will rear its ugly head. He'll
fall into the classic trap against Rios: it's so easy to his him, why not just
stand in front of him and hit him some more. Alvarado will get caught standing
and trading a little too much. He'll overcommit with his punches. His jab will
be left behind.
As is the case with many Rios fights, his pressure
and short shots will slowly turn the fight in his favor. I see him absorbing a
lot of punishment but slowly grinding down Alvarado as the fight moves towards
the later rounds. Eventually, Rios' hooks to the body and pinpoint head shots
will be too much for Alvarado to handle. Alvarado goes down multiple times in
the later rounds and ultimately referee Tony Weeks stops the fight.
Brandon Rios TKO 9 Mike Alvarado.
Adam Abramowitz is the head writer and founder of saturdaynightboxing.com.
He is also a member of the Transnational Boxing Rankings Board.
Contact Adam at saturdaynightboxing@hotmail.com
@snboxing on twitter
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