Thursday, December 13, 2012

Opinions and Observations: Pacquiao-Marquez IV


After last year's unsatisfying result in the third fight of the Manny Pacquiao-Juan Manuel Marquez series, where Marquez appeared to have boxed himself to a victory but didn't win on the scorecards, both camps went back to the classroom in preparation for Saturday's fourth edition. For team Pacquiao, Freddie Roach and crew studied their successes in the first two fights, while Nacho Beristain and Marquez conducted a thorough post-mortem on the third installment.

Each side entered the ring on Saturday with its adjustments and variations. Pacquiao's team ditched its attempt to win by boxing and returned to the brawling style of the first two fights. In addition, Roach added some new wrinkles: more feints and head movement. Although Pacquiao weighed in at a career-high 147, his speed looked excellent, and it was clear from his performance that this training camp featured a renewed focus on agility.

For Team Marquez, its strategy in the third fight – single counters instead of trading – had its desired effect inside of the ring, but not with the judges sitting directly outside of it. The one-shot counterpunches reduced Marquez's vulnerability to longer exchanges, which favored Pacquiao with his superior speed and athleticism. Marquez and Beristain realized two additional things from the third fight: 1. They might not ever win a fair decision on the scorecards. 2. They had to go for the knockout.

For the fourth fight, Team Marquez employed a strategy of blunt force trauma. Marquez wasn't going to match Pacquiao's punch output or win every foray, but he needed to end the fight before the final bell. In short, when Pacquiao got hit hard, he needed to go down. That meant Marquez's counters had to be thrown with malicious intent. Thus, instead of straight right hand counters, which Marquez had perfected throughout his career, his emphasis needed to be placed on maximum-leverage punches: overhand rights and looping right hands from the outside.

Leading up to the fight, Marquez undertook an extensive weight training regiment, supervised by strength and conditioning coach Angel Heredia (also known as Angel Hernandez, much more on him later). Using the eye test, Marquez entered the ring more muscular than he had ever been in previous fights. Throughout Marquez's career, his power had emanated not from God-given power or favorable musculature, but from perfect punching technique. Now, with Heredia's assistance, Marquez displayed Hulk-like biceps and shoulder muscles. However, once the fight started, he didn't look stiff or unfluid, like many boxers do when they overcommit to weight training.

The fight started much faster than the last installment did. Pacquiao darted in and out of the pocket and his legs looked very fresh. His feints confounded Marquez at first and he also incorporated his right hook. Marquez lost the first two rounds, but practically every shot of his went to Pacquiao's body. Yet, he had not unloaded any big punches. He was trying to slow Pacquiao down and set him up for later in the fight.

In the third round, this series forever changed; Pacquiao went down. It was the first time he touched the canvas in nine years. Marquez struck with a picture-perfect combination: jab to the head/jab to the body/looping right hand to the head. Pacquiao, who was moving away from the jab to the body, never saw the punch from the outside. There was a simple explanation for the knockdown; Marquez brought a new girl to the dance.

It wouldn't surprise me if Beristain, who is one of the ultimate students of the game, took away something very substantive from Floyd Mayweather's win over Miguel Cotto earlier this year. In that fight, Mayweather debuted a looping right hand from the outside. Cotto had not prepared for that punch and he was hit with it at will.

Marquez had always been one of the best counterpunchers in boxing, using his left hook, uppercut (right or left) and straight right hand. Pacquiao and Roach had seen those punches before and had different degrees of success defending against them. In fact, Marquez's straight right hand had been the only punch that had provided continued success throughout the earlier trilogy.

In essence, Beristain used his knowledge of Pacquiao, the prior success of Marquez and perhaps some borrowing from other fighters to put together a brand new wrinkle. Pacquiao wouldn't expect a looping right hand because Marquez had never thrown it in their previous fights. If you look at Pacquiao's hands prior to the third-round knockdown, they were lowered a little because of the body shot attempt, but they were straight in front of him. Most likely, he would have at least been able to partially block a Marquez counter straight right hand. However, prior to the knockdown, the whole left side of his face was exposed. He was not expecting anything looping.

Marquez' knockdown combination was not the product of some sort of improvisational genius. It was thrown so fluidly. You could tell it was practiced and perfected in the gym prior to the fight. There was no hesitation or pausing to study Pacquiao's reactions. Jab, jab and then bang.

Nevertheless, Pacquiao pulled himself together and by the end of the fourth round, he scored with solid connects. In the fifth, he got his revenge. In a brief trade, his left hand beat Marquez's jab and Marquez staggered back with his glove touching the canvas – a knockdown. In real time, that punch – and I don't say this lightly – was blindingly fast. I've probably played the clip of that knockdown 20 times or so and I still can't see it unfolding without the benefit of slow motion replay. For those who claim that Pacquiao's hand speed had slipped (and I was one of them), that fifth-round round knockdown was certainly evidence to the contrary.

Pacquiao continued to pile on in the fifth after the knockdown. His straight left hand repeatedly snapped back Marquez's head. By the end of the round, Marquez's nose was busted up and he was bleeding profusely.

The sixth round started out with more of the same. Marquez got tagged again and again. He was badly hurt. It looked like he might go down again. As the round came to a close, Pacquiao attempted a crafty little maneuver. While Marquez was stationed along the ropes, Pacquiao feinted with the jab and then rushed in behind his jab....

WHAM!!!!!!!

The next coherent image was Pacquiao face-first on the canvas, motionless underneath the ropes; he was out cold. The fight was over.

What the hell had just happened?

Marquez, the expert of adjustments, didn't go for the feint. As soon as Pacquiao tried to throw his jab, Marquez put all of his force behind an overhand right. The punch connected at short range and Pacquiao collapsed.

What Beristain and Marquez had figured out in their preparation for this fight was that Pacquiao stayed in the pocket long enough to be countered with home run bombs. Again, instead of the straight right hand counter, Marquez opted for a punch thrown with more leverage and power. Team Marquez always knew about Pacquiao’s penchant for running into the pocket. That was how they were so competitive in the first three fights. The change in the fourth fight was the type of counter shot they employed. Pacquiao, ever the risk taker, knew he could withstand Marquez's straight right hand from past fights, but the overhand shot proved to be a different beast entirely.

And that was that. There was pandemonium, euphoria, a palpable sense of awe from the crowd. Everyone knew that they had witnessed an unforgettable moment of boxing history.

It was shocking. I was yelling at the TV, jumping up and down like a little boy, waking the neighbors. What a fight! What a spectacle! It was boxing, no, sport at its finest. It was the highest of highs.

Instantly, I went online and started posting and talking about the fight. My heart was racing. It was the type of exhilarating moment that only boxing could deliver.

*****************************************************

And then a strange thing happened as the euphoria of the knockout started to wear off. My overwhelming sense of joy had transformed into something else: skepticism.

A nagging voice inside my head started to ask the following questions: Do 39-year-olds suddenly develop wipeout power? Was Marquez clean? Was Pacquiao? Was it just the perfect punch?

The pleasure of the night had suddenly vanished, replaced by suspicion. This was an epic moment in boxing and yet I couldn't enjoy it fully. And I hated that.

Ultimately, Marquez's decision to employ Angel Heredia, a confessed steroid dealer and cooperating government witness in the BALCO scandal, affected my comprehension of the fight's conclusion. Although Marquez had always been seen as an upright figure in boxing, why was he consorting with a person with this type of background? Clearly, he knew that this relationship would bring increased scrutiny of his performance. Although Marquez came into the third fight with an improved body under Heredia, his physique on Saturday was something entirely different. He scarcely resembled the lightweight of two years ago.

In the aftermath of the fight, I started to wonder about Marquez's ease in obliterating Pacquiao with just one punch. Remember, Pacquiao hadn't been knocked down in nine years. Now, strange things do happen in boxing. George Foreman wiped out a number of fighters in his 40s, but he always had concussive power. For Marquez, historically he had never been a one-punch knockout artist. He had beaten people up and eventually stopped them. But he had not been one who suddenly turned out the lights of world-class fighters.

But this is boxing – the theater of the unexpected, as the phrase goes. It could have been just an amazing knockout. I hope it was. I want it to be. But I'm also not entirely trusting. Not this year.

Earlier in 2012, Andre Berto, Lamont Peterson, Antonio Tarver and Erik Morales all tested positive for performance enhancing drugs (PEDs). Some names on that list had sterling reputations before their failed tests. In all of those cases except Tarver's, the fighters used testing that was far more thorough than those of the state commissions.

For Pacquiao-Marquez IV, the fighters submitted to the basic and flawed drug testing of the Nevada State Athletic Commission, which allows elevated testosterone levels as compared to other states, and doesn't test for synthetic testosterone, HGH (human growth hormone, a synthetic drug which increases muscle mass) or EPO (a PED designed to deliver increased oxygen delivery to muscles).

Because of the number of high-profile drug cheats caught this year, a confessed steroid dealer surrounding Marquez's training camp, the fighter's advanced age and the spectacular result of the match, it was difficult to avoid ruminating about the specter of PEDs.

But I wasn't just thinking about Marquez. In an ironic twist, the initial push for increased drug testing in boxing originated because of Pacquiao's success. Floyd Mayweather was incredulous of Pacquiao's reign of terror, when in a 30-month period he went from beating junior lightweights to destroying junior middleweights, four weight classes higher. Mayweather and others in his camp accused Pacquiao of taking illegal substances. Pacquiao would sue Mayweather for defamation and eventually wound up receiving a settlement.

With that said, Manny didn't help himself on this topic when he initially refused to submit to random blood testing during the first round of negotiations for a potential Mayweather mega-fight. Additionally, once Pacquiao agreed to testing, there were all sorts of skirmishes between camps about the arbitrary end points of the testing prior to the fight. The potential mega-fight never occurred as Pacquiao and promoter Bob Arum were livid about being dictated to by Mayweather. (Drug testing was only one of several issues that prevented the match from being finalized. Both boxers and their teams deserve their fair share of the blame for the failure to make the fight).
 
But Floyd was on the right side of the PED issue; it was not mere gamesmanship. Time has vindicated his stance that there is a serious PED problem in boxing.

Interestingly, since Team Mayweather's accusations first surfaced in 2009, Pacquiao hasn't knocked a fighter out. Before this current streak of six bouts without a knockout, he  had never had more than three consecutive fights without a stoppage, and those were his first three bouts in 1995.

Ultimately, suspicion of Marquez and Pacquiao, as well as other fighters, is not proof of any wrongdoing. However, because of the lack of uniform and comprehensive drug testing, this is boxing's current reality, full of unanswered questions about illegal substances. Dopers and their enablers are much further advanced than the testing protocols that the individual states employ. The absence of a unifying governing body in the sport hinders its ability to address this problem with the speed and decisiveness that it deserves.

Watching it live, I loved Pacquiao-Marquez IV. It was epic and memorable, and all that other great stuff. But a lot of my Sunday was spent wondering if one or both fighters were even clean – and I really resented that.

Yes, I want there to be a fifth fight between Pacquiao and Marquez, but there needs to be Olympic-style testing. Pacquiao and Marquez have an opportunity to help push for a cleaner sport. I hope that they utilize their power and status to mandate stricter testing for all of their future fights. At this point, they have already made vast fortunes in boxing. For them, supporting stricter testing would not be an act of great moral courage, but it would certainly set the right example for the sport and the industry.


Adam Abramowitz is the head writer and founder of saturdaynightboxing.com.
He is also a member of the Transnational Boxing Rankings Board.
Contact Adam at saturdaynightboxing@hotmail.com
@snboxing on twitter
Follow Saturday Night Boxing on Facebook:

Monday, December 10, 2012

Boxinghead Battle Update: Dec. 10

I have started a prediction game featuring many of the boxing experts in the United States and a few sprinkled in from around the world. I call it the Boxinghead Battle. Predictions will be tabulated throughout the year for major fights.

The rules are as follows: One point (+1) for correctly picking the winning fighter, minus one point (-1) for selecting the losing fighter and five points (+5) for correctly picking a draw. If someone correctly predicts a no-contest, they win ten points (+10) but no points will be deducted for a fight that is declared a no-contest.

Below you will see the current standings of the Battle. Each expert is identified along with his publication. Some names are prominent boxing figures on Twitter and do not have an official affiliation. There are also other boxing enthusiasts as part of the Battle. Contestants who haven't remained active have been removed. The current leader is Dan Rafael of espn (+10). Matthew Mojica (-5) is the trailer.

Check http://www.saturdaynightboxing.com/ for updates to the Boxinghead Battle. There will be a dedicated page on the upper right hand side of the website.

Update as of December 10th:

Abramowitz, Adam (saturday night boxing) +6
Anjuum, Mohammad 0
Barry, Alex (boxing seed) +7
Boxing 101 -1
Boxing Advocate -1
Boxing Mouth +2
Bivins, Ryan (sweetboxing) +1
Burton, Ryan (boxing lab) -1
Campbell, Brian (espn) +5
Carp, Steve (las vegas review journal) +3
Casillas, J. +1
Christ, Scott (bad left hook) +2
Conner, Patrick (tqbr) +8
Conye, Danny +6
Coppinger, Mike (ring) +4
David, Jose -1
Donovan, Jake (boxing scene) +1
Erdman, Corey (ring) +2
Ferguson, Billy (fighthype) +4
Fischer, Douglass (ring) +8
Fitzsimmons, Lyle (boxing scene) -1
Foley, James (Bad Left Hook) +6
Frauenheim, Norm (15 rounds) +3
Freeburn, Shannon +2
Harrison, Andrew (tqbr) -1
Hernadez, Jorge +1
Hussein, Imran +1
Idec, Keith (boxing scene) +8
Iole, Kevin (yahoo) +1
Jones, Vince Parker +1
Kitchen, Kory (bad left hook) +1
Mannix, Chris (sports illustrated) +1
Maquinana, Ryan (boxing scene) +9
McCarson, Kelsey (the sweet science) -4
Mojica, Matthew -5
Montoya, Gabe (maxboxing) 0
Morilla, Diego +2
Mulcahey, Marty (maxboxing) +7
Mulvaney, Kieran (espn) + 2
Olson, Hans (boxing insider) +5
Ortega, Mark (tqbr) +7
Pawel +5
Poplawski, Ray +2
Punch to the Face +1
Rafael, Dan (espn) +10
Raskin, Eric (grantland) +1
Robinson, Chris (boxing scene) +3
Rodriguez, Alex +2
Rold, Cliff (boxing scene) +7
Rosenthal, Michael (ring) +7
Salazar, Victor (boxing voice Vic) 0
Sandoval, Luis (boxing lab) 0
Santoloquito, Joe (ring) +1
Simon +1
Sledskillz 0
Songalia, Ryan (ring) +4
Starks, Tim (tqbr) +5
Street Fighter 2 -1
Tippy +1
Two Piece Boxing +6
Velin, Bob (USA Today) +6
Warren, Glen +1
Weiler, Matt 0
Wylie, Lee (the sweet science) +5
Zemach, Steve (tqbr) +2


Adam Abramowitz is the head writer and founder of saturdaynightboxing.com.
He is also a member of the Transnational Boxing Rankings Board.
Contact Adam at saturdaynightboxing@hotmail.com
@snboxing on twitter
Follow Saturday Night Boxing on Facebook:

Saturday, December 8, 2012

Pacquiao-Marquez IV: Keys to the Fight


The fourth fight of the epic series between Manny Pacquiao (54-4-2, 38 KOs) and Juan Manuel Marquez (54-6-1, 39 KOs) unfolds on Saturday. With their first three matches in 2004, 2008 and 2011, the two future Hall of Famers meet up for their next installment after a comparatively brief hiatus from each other. Pacquiao enters the fight having been deprived of a clear decision against Tim Bradley earlier this year on account of some incompetent judging. Instead of a rematch with Bradley, Pacquiao decided to go for the bigger money fight against Marquez. To this point, 2012 has essentially been a marking-time year for Marquez. He had a stay-busy fight against Serhiy Fedchenko in April and spent the better part of the year waiting patiently for another crack at his Filipino rival.  

The controversial scoring from last year's Pacquiao win still lingers (the majority of boxing observers thought that Marquez had won) and now the two are ready for battle. For Marquez, this is his chance to finally claim a win against Pacquiao. For Manny, this is his opportunity to reinforce his elite status in the sport and finally prove a definitive supremacy over Marquez. Read below for the keys to the fight. My prediction will be at the end of the article. 

1. So what's new? 

Pacquiao weighed in on Friday at 147, four pounds heavier than he was for last year's fight against Marquez. This is now Pacquiao's eighth fight over the junior welterweight limit of 140. Until this year, in all of these bouts he came in well below the welterweight division limit of 147. (His decision to enter the Bradley fight at 147 made sense in that Bradley was coming up from 140 and had been knocked down at the lower weight.) Similar to the Bradley fight, I'm sure that Pacquiao's decision to come in at 147 was a strategic one to emphasize his power. 

After three fights, it's pretty clear that Pacquiao and Marquez fight each other on equal terms. What saved Pacquiao in the first two bouts of the series (a draw and a win) were the knockdowns. Team Pacquiao is certainly hoping that they can repeat the formula from earlier in the series and get Marquez on the canvas. And while I may not agree with the decision to come in so heavy (more on that later), I certainly understand the strategy behind it.  

For Marquez, he has worked with strength and conditioning coach Angel Hernandez to add muscle. Far removed from the overmatched fighter who was physically dominated by Floyd Mayweather in 2009, Marquez is now an able-bodied welterweight. For this fight, he seems as muscular as he has been in his entire career and it’s clear from this decision that Team Marquez is also thinking about the possibility of getting a stoppage or a knockdown. That's a tall order in that Pacquiao has a spectacular chin and he hasn't legitimately been on the canvas in almost a decade. 

2. The speed bothered Marquez, not the power. 

And here is where I think that Team Pacquiao might be making a miscalculation. When Pacquiao knocked down Marquez three times in the first round in 2004 and once in the third round in 2008, these were not necessarily indications of Pacquiao's superior power, but more accurately, they were reflections of his blinding hand speed. True, the first knockdown in 2004 really shook Marquez up and it affected his balance and composure for the rest of the round. But ask yourself this question: if Marquez couldn't handle Pacquiao's power, why was he the one who was coming on strong in the later rounds of their first two fights? 

It was telling that Marquez was able to stay on his feet during the third fight. Pacquiao, who had knocked Marquez down three times at 125 and once at 130, couldn't put him on the canvas at 143. Pacquiao was able to knock down Shane Mosley and destroy Antonio Margarito, but as a welterweight, he couldn't hurt Marquez. In truth, Pacquiao's speed has declined over the last two years and this factor points to why Marquez was never in danger of getting knocked down in the third fight. Folks, it was the speed, not the power.  

Thus, Pacquiao’s decision to come in at 147 surprises me. I'm sure Team Pacquiao feels that getting at least one knockdown is pivotal. However, they might be misreading what led to their earlier success. The faster that Pacquiao was, the better he fared against Marquez. I'm not sure that the extra four pounds of muscle for Saturday's fight is the answer.  

3. Can Freddie Roach make a key adjustment? 

Throughout the trilogy, Marquez has pasted Pacquiao with counter right hands. In each fight, Marquez was able to get Pacquiao's timing down and use the Filipino's jab and his tendency to fall in against him. Manny's jab is often just a "show" punch; it usually signals a blazing left hand. Marquez realized that when he saw the jab, the left hand was following. Either he directly countered the jab with his right hand or he would step back, wait for Manny to flail with his left and score with a right hand or left hook as Pacquiao was out of position.  

Freddie Roach understands Marquez's countering techniques and by now he probably gives Marquez appropriate credit. Leading into the third fight, Roach famously predicted an early-round knockout. Roach probably thought that Pacquiao's size and power would be too great for Marquez. He expected his fighter to manhandle Marquez with his left hand. Obviously, that didn't happen, and you can make an argument that Marquez's performance in the third fight was his best in the series.  

For Roach, it's time for Plan B. Although Pacquiao featured a good right hook against Miguel Cotto and Antonio Margarito, that weapon stayed in its holster against Marquez last year. Will Roach finally emphasize the lead right hook? In addition, Pacquiao has a good uppercut, although it's rarely used. Will Roach turn to that punch? Will he have Pacquiao double-jab more? Will he encourage Pacquiao to let Marquez lead at points in the fight?
 
Roach and Pacquiao need to incorporate some additional strategic elements to guarantee themselves a win. But will Roach be able to find the winning combination? And if he does, will he be able to convince his fighter to make the necessary adjustments during the fight? Remember, when under duress, Pacquiao often reverts to his most basic boxing fundamentals – the jab and the left hand.  

4. Will anyone hit the canvas? 

Let's face it: both sides know how close each fight has been. Without Marquez hitting the canvas, we might not have even had a second fight, let alone a fourth one. Both boxers understand how one round, one punch, can determine the difference in this matchup. For Pacquiao, getting Marquez on the ground is a way for him to equalize Marquez's superior boxing technique. For Marquez, if he can send Pacquiao to the canvas, that will be one less point that the judges can hold against him. 

Both fighters will be unloading their power shots on Saturday. Pacquiao's jab will be there for show, to get his rhythm down. Marquez may not jab whatsoever. Both want the fight to end within the distance, but in a more likely scenario, the history of this series suggests that whoever can knock the other one down won't lose the fight. 

5. Who are the judges? 

Pacquiao has been helped throughout the trilogy by the Duane Fords and the Glenn Trowbridges of the Nevada judging circuit, a jurisdiction well known for favoring the "aggressor." Marquez was so incensed by the scoring in the third fight that he insisted that the fourth installment take place outside of Las Vegas. He didn't get his wish but on Saturday he'll have a very favorable slate of judges.  

In close rounds Adalaide Byrd is the rare Nevada judge who favors clean punching over all other factors. In addition, her record indicates an independent streak. She has often scored against the "house" fighter. Last week, she turned in a wide 119-109 scorecard for Austin Trout over Miguel Cotto, even though the fight occurred in Cotto's adopted home of Madison Square Garden. She was the one judge who scored in favor of Richard Abril's counter shots over Brandon Rios' mostly ineffective aggression. Again, Rios was the "A-side" in that particular fight. In 2009, she favored Chris John's clean punching over Rocky Juarez's pressure, giving John a wide 119-109 win. Byrd may not be the best judge out there – she can be guilty of picking a trope and staying with it – but her predilections play into Marquez's strengths.  

Steve Weisfeld is a judge from New Jersey who has risen to become one of the top arbiters in the sport. Just in the last two months, he was assigned to Garcia-Morales II, Broner-DeMarco, Cotto-Trout and now Pacquiao-Marquez IV. You'd have to search long and hard for the last bad decision that Weisfeld rendered. (I had to go all the way back to his scoring for Joan Guzman over Ali Funeka in their rematch, and even that one wasn't truly awful.) Weisfeld's cards are consistently excellent and I feel confident in saying that he is a damn good judge who almost always gets it right.  

The third judge is John Keane, probably one of the best British arbiters working today. A familiar name on the international circuit, Keane was the one who scored Ward-Froch the widest (and correctly) for the American. He had Julio Cesar Chavez down prior to his knockout of Andy Lee. Keane thought that George Groves squeaked by British Olympian James DeGale. He was also the one who had Jo Jo Dan beating house fighter Selcuk Aydin in Turkey. If there's a specific bias in Keane's record, I haven't been able to determine it. In addition, he has consistently demonstrated an ability to make the correct call over the crowd-pleasing one.  

Marquez should get a fair shake from this judging panel. If the fight's close, he'll have his chance to finally score a victory over Pacquiao.  

Prediction: 

I think that Marquez found something in the third bout. Instead of trying to get the better of Pacquiao in exchanges, he limited his attack to single counter shots and a few quick combinations. For him, remaining balanced and keeping the appropriate distance were more important than trading – he correctly realized that the longer exchanges went, the better chance Pacquiao had of landing something big.
 
The judges didn't favor Marquez's selective approach in the third fight, but as I stated, Saturday's crew should better reflect the ring action than any of the judging panels from the first three fights. It would certainly help Marquez if he didn't give away the 12th round like he did in the last fight. In addition, Marquez will have to look for opportunistic spots to mix in more combinations. He doesn't have to be much busier than he was last fight, but more activity on the margins will help him win close rounds.  

Because of the fighters' familiarity with each other, I don't see either one pulling away. Pacquiao will start fast and immediately try to test Marquez's chin with his power shots. I also wouldn't be surprised if Pacquiao incorporates more angles into his attack than he did in their last fight. I expect Pacquiao to have a lead after five rounds, although all of these frames will be competitive.   

As the match progresses, Marquez will get his timing down. The accuracy of his hard counters will thwart Pacquiao’s aggression and minimize how often he throws his left hand. In addition, I don't see Pacquiao making any key adjustments to turn the tide of the fight. Marquez, with his clean punching, will pile up just enough rounds to squeak by with a victory, notching his first win in the series.  

Juan Manuel Marquez defeats Manny Pacquiao by a close, unanimous decision, along the lines of 115-113, or seven rounds to five.

Adam Abramowitz is the head writer and founder of saturdaynightboxing.com.
He is also a member of the Transnational Boxing Rankings Board.
Contact Adam at saturdaynightboxing@hotmail.com
@snboxing on twitter
Follow Saturday Night Boxing on Facebook:

Thursday, December 6, 2012

Opinions and Observations: Cotto-Trout


As the Miguel Cotto-Austin Trout fight entered the seventh round, my card was even; the fight was there for the taking. Trout had jumped out to a lead in the bout's first three rounds with crisp, short combinations and solid straight left hands to the body. He used his reach, jab and movement to keep Cotto at a distance. He didn't seem awed by the Madison Square Garden atmosphere. By the end of the third round, Cotto started connecting more frequently and he carried that success into the middle portion of the fight. Using his right hand as a range finder, he pummeled Trout with a number of left hooks to the head. He also scored with some hard straight right hands.

However, much of Cotto's success was a result of a tactical mistake by Trout. Instead of boxing intelligently from rounds four to six, Trout decided to stand in the pocket in hopes of outslugging Cotto. He was going for an early kill, thinking that he could grind down Cotto with his physicality and power shots. It's not that Trout didn't have any success in these frames, but by standing in front of Cotto, he was providing his opponent with a much easier way to land punches.

After being hit by Cotto's power shots for several rounds, in the seventh, Trout went back to boxing. He found some real success by throwing lead right hooks and two and three-punch combinations. One combination I really liked was his right hook/left uppercut/right hook combo. After his combinations, he quickly got out of the pocket and regrouped. It was a winning strategy. Cotto couldn't counter effectively enough to change the terms of the fight and he was unable to track down Trout outside of the pocket. Trout looked spry as the fight reached its later rounds while Cotto's energy started to flag. Trout had success whenever he dictated the action by being first. He also moved very well laterally along the ropes to avoid Cotto's attempts at applying pressure.

Trout easily won the final rounds of the fight with his higher work rate and sharp combinations. Cotto was reduced to trying in vain to land something big. After the final bell, the only drama was whether the final scores would reflect the action that took place in the ring. Cotto had a history of receiving favorable decisions in Madison Square Garden (the Mosley and Clottey fights were both close and went his way). Ultimately, the judges unanimously scored the fight for Trout – 117-111 x 2 and 119-109, a tally that might have been a little too wide. (I also had Trout winning 117-111.)

For Trout, his performance answered several questions. Make no mistake; Cotto landed a number of vicious bombs from the third through the six rounds, specifically with his left hook. Trout was affected by some of these shots but they weren't enough to seriously hurt him or take away his fighting spirit.

In addition, far greater fighters than Trout have been defeated by a hostile atmosphere. When things weren't going well for Trout, it would have been easy for him to let the momentum of the fight and the fervor of the crowd get the best of him. Instead, he settled himself and fought a disciplined second half to secure the victory. That was "gut-check" time for him, and he passed the test with flying colors.

Cotto certainly had his moments in the fight. Even in a number of the rounds that he didn't win, he had several good sequences. It wasn't until the last third of the fight that it started to be something less than competitive. He moved well early in the bout and didn't resemble the plodder that he had been in some of his less spectacular professional showings.

However, I was surprised at how little Cotto attempted to go to the body. In his three fights with trainer Pedro Diaz, Cotto has minimized his left hook to the body, a punch that was once his best weapon. I understand the impetus to limit the punch. Cotto got into bad habits where he loaded up on the shot. He sometimes squared up too much while throwing it and, quite frankly, he got hit too much in return. Diaz has favored a more mobile Cotto who spends less time in the pocket and initiates offense with more versatility. It was a wonderful strategy against Margarito in the rematch but I'm not sure it was the best approach on Saturday.

To beat Trout, Cotto needed to have made it a war. He should have unloaded as much as he could to the body to slow Trout down for the later rounds. Although Cotto did have success in the middle rounds, again, this was more of a function of what Trout didn't do (box) then what Cotto was able to accomplish. In my estimation, the inability to go to the body early and consistently in the fight was a missed opportunity that cost Cotto dearly.

Ultimately, Trout's reach, hand speed and athleticism proved to be too much for Cotto to overcome. However, Cotto didn't embarrass himself in the ring and any talk of him retiring seems entirely premature to me. But Cotto is now in a phase of his career where he has to be matched carefully.

For a next opponent, the same two names make the most sense for both fighters: Saul Alvarez and Cornelius Bundrage (who also has a junior middleweight title). Of course Trout will want to capitalize on the biggest win of his career by going after the brightest star at 154 (Alvarez). On paper, it's a very interesting fight as Trout has the hand speed and athleticism to trouble Alvarez while Canelo's combination punching and accuracy could cause a lot of damage. However, I don't see this fight happening immediately.

Trout may have the boxing pedigree to take on Canelo, but he certainly doesn't bring financial clout to the table. Why would Alvarez want to risk his status in the sport for such a limited financial upside? A Bundrage fight would earn Trout additional legitimacy within the sport and promote the narrative that he is an elite talent (this juror is still undecided on that front). Perhaps with multiple belts and additional exposure on premium cable he would become a more enticing opponent for Alvarez.

Cotto may suit Canelo better than Trout does in that he brings a more robust financial upside. And even though Cotto would enter that fight having lost his last two bouts, Alvarez-Cotto could still be marketable because of Cotto's experience and his punching power. In truth, I don't see Cotto beating Alvarez, but he certainly has a puncher's chance. Alvarez can be hit and he's probably never tasted a hook like Cotto's. (I'm sure if Alvarez had his way he would want to fight Floyd Mayweather next.) 

If Cotto can't make an Alvarez fight, a bout against Bundrage would be palatable because it's a potential winnable matchup. Bundrage has very heavy hands, but he doesn't move them all that often. Cotto would have a chance to box his way to a victory.

Perhaps the lasting image of Cotto-Trout occurred after the first round. The Showtime cameras zoomed in on Cotto as he rested on his stool. His left eye had already started to swell and he breathed heavily like it was the start of the 12th round, and not the 2nd. 

Cotto has vowed to continue his boxing career, but will his body and battle-scarred flesh cooperate?

Adam Abramowitz is the head writer and founder of saturdaynightboxing.com.
He is also a member of the Transnational Boxing Rankings Board.
Contact Adam at saturdaynightboxing@hotmail.com
@snboxing on twitter
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Saturday, December 1, 2012

Cotto-Trout: Keys to the Fight

Miguel Cotto (37-3, 30 KOs) returns to Madison Square Garden on Saturday to face undefeated junior middleweight titlist Austin Trout (25-0 14 KOs). With a win, Cotto hopes to go big-game hunting in 2013 against Floyd Mayweather, Saul Alvarez or Manny Pacquiao, but will the slick southpaw, Trout, stand in the way? Read below for the keys to the fight. My prediction will be at the end of the article.
 
1. How will Trout respond to a real puncher?
 
Although Trout has a glossy record, his ledger doesn't include notable punchers. Trout certainly hasn't faced anyone as heavy-handed as Cotto is. This is the essential question of the fight. Trout's chin and his reaction to Cotto's left hook to the body will be telling barometers of how the fight will go. At some point, either with a straight right hand or a left hook, Trout will get hit, and hit hard. But will he be able to take these shots? How will his legs hold up? What about his chin? Will he be able to fight through Cotto's power punches or will it make him retreat?
 
Honestly, I don't have a great read on how Trout will handle Cotto's power. If he can pass this test, Cotto may be in for a tough night. If he can't take Cotto's shots, a defeat is all but assured.
 
2. How long until Cotto closes the distance?
 
Trout has solid boxing skills and uses his feet, feints and upper body movement to avoid pressure. However, he's not a runner. He likes to stay in the pocket or just out of range to give himself opportunities for counter shots.
 
Cotto likes to get close to his opponents but Trout will have an advantage in reach and hand speed. For Cotto, it wouldn't behoove him to get down early on the cards. Although Trout's beard is untested, what happens if he can withstand Cotto's best? Cotto needs to plan for a 12-round fight and if he doesn't get untracked until the third or fourth round, he may be in a perilous position on the scorecards, forced to go for a knockout in the fight's last third.
 
3. Can Trout hurt Cotto?
 
In my opinion, if Trout can't land something big, inevitably, Cotto will walk him down with impunity. Trout doesn't have knockout power but he definitely throws power shots, including a good right hook and some solid uppercuts. It will be imperative for Trout to set the tone early in the fight and land something substantial.
 
Cotto is also susceptible to cuts and it would be wise for Trout to target the eyes. If he can't hurt Cotto with one punch, the precision of numerous hard shots will help thwart Cotto's momentum. If Cotto can withstand Trout's power shots and quick combinations, Trout will find himself in a lot of trouble.
 
4. Is Cotto's rejuvenation real?
 
Much was made about Cotto's success against Floyd Mayweather. It's true, Cotto did make Mayweather's nose bleed and had some success along the ropes. Cotto's hand speed looked relatively quick for him and he connected on Floyd with a number of jabs and straight right hands from the outside. However, Cotto only won two or three rounds of the fight, depending on the judge. Yes, he did better than many of Floyd's opponents, but he was never in a serious position to win the fight.
 
Prior to the Mayweather fight, Cotto exacted revenge on Antonio Margarito, which was Cotto's first bout with his current trainer, Pedro Diaz. Against Margarito, Cotto featured a lot of lateral movement and his legs looked better than they had in the recent past. He was far less of a plodder. Under Diaz, Cotto has used his jab more effectively and he has set up shots better. In addition, his conditioning has been very strong.
 
However, it's very possible that Margarito, after his numerous injuries in the Pacquiao fight, was already a shot fighter for the rematch and, just a reminder, Cotto did only win a couple rounds against Mayweather. Perhaps all the talk of a meaningful Cotto rejuvenation is just that: talk.
 
5. The championship rounds.
 
Cotto has closed the show impressively throughout his career. He scored memorable late knockouts against Zab Judah and Ricardo Mayorga and stepped on the gas in the final rounds to earn victories over Joshua Clottey and Shane Mosley. Cotto has proven his ability to rise to the occasion in big fights, (with exceptions against Pacquiao and Mayweather, who are in another class).
 
Trout has fought in hostile terrain before, including bouts in Panama and Mexico. Those experiences will be valuable for him on Saturday because he certainly won't be the crowd favorite in New York City. In the past, Cotto has received favorable treatment from judges in Madison Square Garden – you could make a case that he lost both the Mosley and Clottey fights. It will be up to Trout to close authoritatively. The crowd will be against him and the judges may be more inclined to side with Cotto in close rounds. Trout must win the final rounds decisively. Even if he is ahead early in the fight, no lead is truly safe with Cotto in MSG.
 
Prediction:
 
Trout's biggest fight to this point in his career happened earlier this year against gatekeeper Delvin Rodriguez. Trout did some things in the fight which I really liked and there were other attributes of his performance with which I was less enthralled. On the positive side of the ledger, he controlled distance beautifully with his subtle lateral and upper body movement. Defensively, he was strong; he rarely gave Rodriguez a clear target to hit. As the fight progressed, Rodriguez couldn't find openings and he grew more hesitant. From a ring generalship perspective, Trout controlled the action.
 
However, Trout's accuracy wasn't good against Rodriguez, who was there to be hit. In addition, his offense was methodical and very vanilla when he decided to let his hands go. He refused to take risks and press the action. In short, Trout was good enough to beat Rodriguez but I didn't see signs of greatness.
 
I think that the early rounds of Cotto-Trout will be a feeling-out period, with Trout taking some time to calm his nerves and Cotto finding ways to close the distance. It should be pretty even until the middle rounds, with each frame being fairly close. Trout will land some jabs, short right hooks and left hands and Cotto will connect with a couple of solid right hands and jabs.
 
As the fight progresses, I see Cotto having more success putting his punches together. As he goes to the body more with his left hook, he will find chances to hit Trout with head shots, specifically with short right hands. Eventually, Trout will get hurt. From that point on, it will just be a matter of time until the fight is over. Trout may very possibly be in the lead when the fight is stopped, but I don't think that he hears the final bell.
 
Finally, I want to point out that the above scenario is extremely speculative. So much of Trout's ability to take shots and fight through pain is unknown. It's very possible that Trout's chin and body hold up to Cotto's power. In addition, perhaps Trout fights with an increased urgency as he steps onto the biggest stage of his career. Ultimately, I am siding with the known power  shots of Cotto, but if Trout can affirmatively answer the questions about his chin and fighting spirit, he will certainly have an opportunity to win the fight. 
 
Miguel Cotto defeats Austin Trout by TKO 10.

Adam Abramowitz is the head writer and founder of saturdaynightboxing.com.
He is also a member of the Transnational Boxing Rankings Board.
Contact Adam at saturdaynightboxing@hotmail.com
@snboxing on twitter
Follow Saturday Night Boxing on Facebook: