New Rule

In watching Erickson Lubin and Chris Eubank Jr. get blown out in consecutive weeks, I've confirmed a belief that I've held about boxing for many years. With a hat tip to Bill Maher, it's time for a New Rule in understanding boxing. The Rule is as follows: 

Any fighter who voluntarily lingers on the ropes during the early rounds of a fight has reduced his or her chances of winning. 

There are a couple of key points to parse here. Let's start with "voluntarily." What I am stating is when a fighter has his or her back to the ropes by choice, by design. It's not being forced to the ropes because of relentless pressure or recovering from punishment. It's a fighter deciding to dictate the terms of the fight by laying on the ropes early in a bout, when opponents are at their strongest.

Eubank with has back against the ropes
Photo courtesy of Mark Robinson/Matchroom

It's my belief that fewer than a handful of fighters at any given time in boxing can win fights with their back against the ropes even in the best of circumstances. It is one of the toughest skills in boxing to master in that a fighter's mobility is significantly limited. Among active fighters, Dereck Chisora is one who has displayed an ability to win fights from this position. But often, Chisora has done his best work with his back against the ropes later in fights, when opponents are diminished or have endured their own punishment (such as Carlos Takam or Joe Joyce). 

So, in the best-case scenario, there may only be a couple of fighters who can win fights with their back against the ropes, and that is later in bouts after their opponents have endured several rounds of action. Yet many fighters somehow think that they will be successful in a disadvantageous position against a clear-minded foe. 

I believe that there are two reasons a fighter goes to the ropes early: 

1. The fighter is physically diminished (Lubin and Eubank fit this category).
2. The fighter believes that he has a strategic advantage (think Floyd Mayweather against Marcos Maidana in their first fight). 

The first category is self-explanatory. Both Lubin and Eubank had tough recent fights where they didn't look at their physical best. Their behavior in going over to the ropes against Ortiz and Benn, respectively, confirms that they didn't believe they had the physical capacity to go 12 hard rounds in the middle of the ring. In short, they were telling on themselves. They needed a crutch even before the going got tough.  

The Mayweather example is instructive and one of the few times that he got his strategy wrong in a fight. I'm sure that Team Mayweather noticed things on tape regarding Maidana, how wide he could be with his shots, how open he could be to counters. They probably thought that going to the ropes would be a simple way to inflict damage because of Maidana's crude offensive forays.  

They were wrong.  

Instead, Maidana went to town on Mayweather in the early rounds. Mayweather fell into the classic counterpuncher's trap of trying to land perfect counters while the aggressor was banging away on a stationary target with power shots and volume.  

Eventually, Mayweather junked the strategy and wound up winning the fight in the middle of the ring. But that fight is an essential example in understanding boxing. With his back up against the ropes, the best fighter of his generation couldn't beat a capable opponent in that position. If it can't be done by Mayweather, maybe you shouldn't try it either.  

Looming in the background to all of this is Muhammad Ali's famous "rope-a-dope" strategy, where he was able to defeat the heavily favored George Foreman by spending most of the fight punching off the ropes. No doubt this is one of the cornerstone fights in the history of the sport, and perhaps Ali is the only heavyweight who could willingly endure that much punishment to win a battle of wills along the ropes against such a fierce opponent.  

But two things to consider about the Rumble in the Jungle: Ali didn't start the fight on the ropes; he had a very good first round using the entire ring. Also, Foreman's pressure was unrelenting. In the early stages of the fight, it was Foreman who drove Ali to the ropes. By the end of the second round, it seemed as if Ali had made the decision to hold his ground along the ropes instead of burn off more energy using his legs.   

The Ali-Foreman performance is essentially the exception that proves the rule. Perhaps the greatest heavyweight of all time was able to execute that strategy, but even then, he absorbed a ton of punishment. If the decision was so fraught for one of the best to ever do it, perhaps a lesser fighter shouldn't think about doing it early in a bout.  

So, to sum up, if you see a boxer go to the ropes on his own volition early in a fight, it's not a good sign. He or she either has made a strategic/tactical mistake or physically the fighter isn't right. And sure, if we watch boxing closely over the ensuing decades, we might find another exception or two. But I've seen a ton of boxing over the years, and going over to the ropes early isn't a winning strategy. You can call Ali the Greatest, but call everyone else something different – someone who's about to lose the round, or the fight. 

Adam Abramowitz is the founder and head writer of saturdaynightboxing.com. 

He's a member of the Ring Magazine Ratings Panel, the Transnational Boxing Rankings Board, and the Boxing Writers Association of America.

Email: saturdaynightboxing@hotmail.com

snboxing on twitter. SN Boxing on Facebook 

Opinions and Observations: Golovkin-Murata, Lubin-Fundora

After the fourth round of Gennadiy Golovkin's grueling middleweight unification match with Ryota Murata, the momentum of the fight was going Murata's way. Although Golovkin had a bright opening round, Murata worked his way into the fight with punishing work on the inside, mixing in right uppercuts, left hooks to the body and straight rights. Murata's big shots were having an effect and perhaps this was the beginning of the end for the once-great Golovkin. 

But in a situation similar to last year's Anthony Joshua-Oleksandr Usyk fight, Golovkin, like Usyk, found another switch and he was able to up the ferocity and effectiveness of his power shots; he just wouldn't be denied. By the seventh round Golovkin was rag-dolling Murata against the ropes. He ended the fight with a beautiful counter right hook in the ninth that spun Murata around and dropped him to the canvas. Within 20 minutes of real time, Golovkin went from "old fighter" to "still a relevant force." It was a sudden and impressive turnaround.

Golovkin (left) and Murata exchanged vicious power shots
Photo courtesy of DAZN

Unlike Golovkin's last fight of note, against Sergiy Derevyanchenko, it was GGG who was the fresher fighter in the second half. He essentially outpunched Murata, which is no easy fete at the age of 40 and coming off a significant layoff. 

Golovkin's performance on Saturday was a reminder of what a special offensive fighter he was and still remains. His combinations flowed. He frequently landed left hook to the body/left uppercut combos that Murata couldn't defend. He pumped his jab like the old days. Golovkin also landed his signature high-arching left hook to the top of the head, a punch that would break the hands of many a lesser fighter. But for me, the punch that won Golovkin the fight was his right hook. Golovkin isn't blessed with top-shelf hand speed, which makes the rear hook even more dangerous to throw because the whole right side of his body is left unprotected. However, with expert marksmanship, he repeatedly wrapped his right hook around Murata's high guard, and did so with devastating results. 

The knockout blow was a counter right hook thrown over a lead left hook. Those two punches come from the same side, and despite Golovkin's age and supposed athletic decline, that final punch was thrown and landed almost in a blur – that’s how perfect it was. It took a few replays even to see the trajectory of the shot. And you can bet that Murata never anticipated it. 

Golovkin will be remembered for his power and his jab, but what may be forgotten is how creative a puncher he can be. He's not a robot that throws the one-two in programmed ways. When he's flowing he has every punch at his disposal. In addition, he can vary the angle and the speed of his shots so that they are harder to defend. He's not just a "puncher." There's an acute boxing mind behind his expressionless face in the ring. 

In the twilight of his career, Golovkin has become more of an opportunistic businessman than a fighter. He has not chosen to face certain formidable challengers, just as he was not given opportunities by bigger names on his way up. It does leave a bit of a sour taste. But for one night, let's push politics aside and remember that Golovkin was a special talent. The Murata fight was a welcome reminder of why so many boxing fans once gravitated to GGG. Watching him ply his destructive trade was one of boxing's great joys. 

*** 

Erickson Lubin walked back to his corner after the second round and got an earful from his trainer, Kevin Cunningham. Lubin had just gotten dropped by a Sebastian Fundora right uppercut and he was in bad shape. Cunningham was in disbelief with what he had just witnessed. Boxing well in the first, Lubin strafed Fundora with a number of power shots from mid-range and the outside. And yet in the second Lubin went right at Fundora, standing in the kitchen with his 6'6" opponent and going toe-to-toe. It was a maddening decision by Lubin and Cunningham was irate. 

But this would be the theme of Lubin's night in this wonderful and brutal battle: Lubin the Freelancer. He showed guts beyond belief and the heart of a champion. But he fought the wrong fight and paid the price. 

It was clear from Cunningham's instructions throughout the fight that he wanted Lubin to use his legs more, to get in and out, to be a sniper. Lubin would answer affirmatively after every piece of direction was given. Sometimes he would do what Cunningham asked; sometimes he wouldn't. 

Fundora (right) throwing one of many uppercuts
Photo courtesy of Ryan Hafey

That Lubin still had significant periods of success points to his skill set and fortitude. Even after getting dropped in the second, he went after Fundora in the third and fourth rounds and landed a number of impressive hard left hands. 

The seventh round will be tough to beat for 2022's Round of the Year. Fundora landed one hellacious left uppercut after another. The fight looked as if it was ready to be stopped. Lubin didn't hold or use his legs; he just drifted straight back toward the ropes, staying in range to be hit with more shots. And despite taking a brutal beating, Lubin bit down and landed three menacing straight left hands and Fundora, seconds away from getting the stoppage, was now on the canvas, and he was hurt. It was special stuff.

But that would be Lubin's last stand. In the eighth Fundora continued to land blistering power shots. Lubin's face had become grossly disfigured, with huge pockets of swelling around his nose, eyes and cheekbones. In the ninth, Fundora battered Lubin along the ropes and after that Cunningham had seen enough. He stopped the fight. 

Lubin made the mistake that many others have in assessing Fundora. With such a big frame and so much body to hit, it must seem so tempting to rough up Fundora on the inside, to chop down the tree. However, that's exactly where Fundora wants to fight. Fundora is not just comfortable on the inside, he thrives there. He has figured out a way to land his best punches in that geography. I'm sure that most trainers would look at Fundora and implore him to use his height and reach more, but Fundora has developed in a unique manner. The closer an opponent is to him, the better he does. 

Cunningham knew exactly what he had in front of him regarding Fundora, but Lubin needed to find out for himself. And he found out the hard way. There are certain fighters who are gifted freelancers, who can identify opportunities or sniff out weakness in an opponent that are beyond even what their trainers could fathom. But these fighters are few, and Lubin isn't one of them. It's possible that by sticking with Cunningham’s game plan that Lubin would have won the fight. However, he was unwilling to trust his corner. He felt that he knew better. He was a little too brash for his own good. A more disciplined performance was needed and Lubin wasn't able to give that. 

As for Fundora, his size, tenacity, unique dimensions and power punching will make him a tough out in the junior middleweight division. He is a beast. But he might be a tamable beast. His chin can be cracked. And in a division of heavy hitters, there are a number of fighters who have the potential to stop him. But what Saturday's fight showed is that an opponent is going to have to beat Fundora with cleverness mixed in with power. Out-toughing or outlasting Fundora isn't going to be the way to get the better of him. It's using deception, running him into shots, controlling the pace of the fights, using the ring to one's advantage. 

Fundora will make for wildly entertaining fights. He represents the new guard at 154 lbs. that will soon be fighting for titles. This group includes Tim Tszyu, Charles Conwell, Israil Madrimov, and a number of others. They all hit hard too. As imposing as Fundora can look there's no guarantee that he will emerge as the next heir at junior middleweight. But in the meantime, let's enjoy the ride. Many have looked at him and dismissed his future prospects in the sport. Yet here he is continuing to beat excellent fighters and silence his doubters. Fundora has forced his way into conversations about the next generation of fighters who could lead the sport forward. He wasn't part of anyone's master plan. But he's a threat, a force, a problem. And win or lose, we're going to watch.   

Adam Abramowitz is the founder and head writer of saturdaynightboxing.com. He's a member of Ring Magazine's Ring Ratings Panel and a Board Member for the Transnational Boxing Rankings Board. 

Email: saturdaynightboxing@hotmail.com

snboxing on twitter. SN Boxing on Facebook.  

Lubin-Fundora: Two Development Pathways

How fighters are developed is a crucial component in determining their ultimate success in boxing. Although fighter development is more of an art than a science, the goal with any young boxer is to move him or her up the ladder until they are ready to take on top talent. This process features a degree of guesswork because some advanced fighters need far fewer rungs on their ladder than those who need more time to improve and refine their skills. 

In the modern era of boxing we have seen vast differences in how fighters are moved. On one side there are boxers like Vasiliy Lomachenko, who was deemed ready for a title shot in his second pro fight (although he lost that bout, but won a belt in his third outing), and Naoya Inoue, who secured a world title in his sixth pro match. Then there are those like Kelly Pavlik, who had 31 pro fights before his first title shot, and Deontay Wilder, who had 32 bouts prior to his opportunity. Obviously, a significant chasm exists between the extremes of fighter development.

All of the above is in the context of this weekend's scintillating 154 lb. matchup between Erickson Lubin (24-1, 17 KOs) and Sebastian Fundora (18-0-1, 12 KOs). Lubin and Fundora represent opposite sides of the development spectrum. What makes it even more interesting is that the same company (PBC) has been responsible for much of both fighters' development (although it should be stated that Lubin didn't align with the PBC until a little later on in his development pathway).  

Erickson Lubin
Photo Courtesy of Amanda Westcott

Lubin is now 26, but he received his first title shot over four years ago, where he was wiped out in one round by Jermell Charlo. Prior to the Charlo fight, Lubin had a relatively weak slate of opponents. He had lacked a genuine 50-50 matchup in his later development fights. He was supposed to accomplish big things in the sport and wasn't given many real challenges on the way up. His development was the path of least resistance with his team looking more toward a title shot than creating a well-rounded fighter. Jorge Cota, a solid gatekeeper, was Lubin's best opponent prior to facing Charlo.

Lubin's outing against Charlo exposed significant defensive shortcomings. The final sequence started with Charlo attacking Lubin with a simple double jab. Lubin tried to avoid the second jab by ducking down and to his left, but he left his body completely unprotected, with his gloves nowhere near his face. Charlo immediately followed with a right hand, and that was all she wrote. 

It was a stunning turn of events for Lubin, who had been viewed as one of the top prospects in the sport. However, it must be said that Charlo didn't have to do anything flashy to score his KO. He employed no trickery or subterfuge – just a double jab and a right hand behind it. Lubin's defensive posture was a mess and he's spent the last four+ years getting back to the place where he was in 2017. 

Lubin's development pathway wasn't necessarily unique in boxing. Many young uber-talents such as Canelo, Anthony Joshua, Gervonta Davis, Shakur Stevenson and Gary Russell Jr. were thrown into title shots without real championship-level experience. For many teams these days, the goal is to get a young kid a belt and then develop him further as a champion. There are differing opinions on the validity of this strategy, but there's no question that it is frequently employed across the sport. 

On one hand, the urge to provide a life-changing opportunity for a fighter is strong. Although Anthony Joshua was not a fully developed fighter when he faced Charles Martin for a title, the opportunity was too significant to pass up. And even though Joshua never became a complete, well-rounded fighter, it's tough to argue with the nine figures in his bank account. Yes, he took a loss against Andy Ruiz that a fighter with more experience would have avoided, but he and his future generations will be set. That he didn't reach his ultimate aptitude in boxing is more our problem than his. 

But the Lubin situation is not similar to Joshua's from my vantage point. Not only didn't he have the right kind of competitive rounds in his development, but he was facing a tough, prime, power-punching boxer for his first title shot. Jermell Charlo was not Charles Martin or a guy like Matthew Hatton, whom Canelo beat for his first title. At the time Charlo was considered close to an A-level fighter, and his recent run of form in the junior middleweight division shows that he could wind up being one of the top-ten fighters in the history of the division. Prior to fighting Lubin, Charlo had faced tough guys like Francisco Santana, Dennis Douglin, Demetrius Hopkins, Joachim Alcine, Vanes Martirosyan, Gabe Rosado and John Jackson, all of whom were at a minimum on the same level as Cota and many were better. And all Lubin really had was Cota. The difference between Charlo's seasoning and Lubin's was vast. And that seasoning manifested when they faced each other in the ring. 

After Lubin lost to Charlo, he aligned with trainer Kevin Cunningham and faced many of the types of fighters that he should have met prior to his world title shot: the cagey former champion Ishe Smith, the rugged Nate Gallimore, former champion and power puncher Jeison Rosario and veteran gatekeeper Terrell Gausha. Through these fights Lubin has learned a lot about himself. He's been tagged by both Gausha and Rosario, but he was able to power through those moments to win without controversy. He's won shootouts when he needed to and relied on his considerable boxing ability on other occasions. With these experiences, he's become a much more well-rounded fighter. (Interestingly, you won't find a notable southpaw on Lubin's list of opponents, and that could be an interesting factor to consider against Fundora.)

A look at Sebastian Fundora's opponents is a stark difference to Lubin's ledger prior to Charlo. Fundora somehow has faced eight undefeated fighters in his first 19 fights. That's a sign that someone behind him didn't fully believe in him at first. Most top prospects are protected to some extent; that's not been the case for Fundora.

Sebastian Fundora
Photo courtesy of Esther Lin

Fundora stands at an unimaginable 6'6", which makes him a unicorn at 154 pounds. There's no one else like him. He looks like a toothpick. There seems to be no muscle on his legs. Yet, he's a fighter who loves trench warfare and mixing it up on the inside. Throughout his career, it's been pure boxers like Jamontay Clark and Sergio Garcia who have given him the most trouble, not the tough bangers. 

But what's worth noting is Fundora's variety of opponents. Yes, he had his shootout with Cota and won. He also dispatched Gallimore without trouble. But Garcia and Clark were crafty and unorthodox. Daniel Lewis had a considerable amateur background and Ve Shawn Owens was a true puncher. 

At 24, Fundora has had a much stronger development slate than Lubin did. Although he also didn't fight a lot of southpaws (with Clark being a notable exception), he's faced opponents who have helped give him additional seasoning at the top levels of boxing. He's had to win wars and also learned to think his way through fights. He's faced fighters with good defenses. He's had opponents who tried running away and others who came right at him. 

Ultimately, Lubin and Fundora are now standing in each other's way for greater glory. They have both overcome doubts and incredulity to be in the mix as top junior middleweights. Lubin deserves considerable credit for picking himself off the canvas and seeking improvement. He has now proved he can overcome adversity. His chin has been tested. He has persevered through rough moments. 

Of course, I will always wonder what would have happened had he fought the right development bouts prior to Charlo. At 26 would he now be indestructible? I bet we wouldn't see the same type of caution that he continues to show on occasion; he still has points in fights where he doesn't seem to trust his chin. 

And Fundora may look like a novelty act, but don't be fooled. He can be a nightmare matchup for many types of fighters. He can use his range, dig to the body and go punch for punch. His endurance is stellar. 

The winner of Lubin-Fundora will have earned it. I's a credit to the boxers and their respective teams for agreeing to take the fight. Saturday's loser could find himself many years away from a title shot; the stakes are high. It's what the sport should be about – two hungry guys going for it, risks be damned. And how each has gotten to this point is one of the more interesting dichotomies in modern boxing. 

Adam Abramowitz is the founder and head writer of saturdaynightboxing.com. He's a member of Ring Magazine's Ring Ratings Panel and a Board Member for the Transnational Boxing Rankings Board. 

Email: saturdaynightboxing@hotmail.com

snboxing on twitter. SN Boxing on Facebook.  

Previews: Davis-Barrios, Lubin-Rosario

Gervonta "Tank" Davis and Mario Barrios headline an intriguing boxing pay per view card on Saturday in Atlanta. The card also features an excellent junior middleweight clash between Erickson Lubin and Jeison Rosario. In both of these matchups the favorites (Davis, Lubin) and the underdogs (Barrios, Rosario) have considerable advantages; these fights could play out in a number of different ways. 

Davis (24-0, 23 KOs) will be moving up to junior welterweight to face Barrios (26-0, 17 KOs). Tank most recently had a knockout of the year contender in defeating Leo Santa Cruz, which took place at 130 lbs. Barrios also appeared on that card and stopped Ryan Karl in the sixth round. 

Davis (left) and Barrios at the pre-fight press conference
Photo courtesy of Amanda Westcott

Before breaking anything down technically for this matchup, Barrios will have four-inch advantages in height and reach and he also has been a junior welterweight for over four years. Davis has been a destructive puncher throughout his career, but all of his fights have taken place at lightweight and below. 

As a prospect, Barrios was a tough fighter for me to get a handle on. He was one of those young fighters who seemed to do a lot of things well, but didn't have any exceptional attributes. He had good power, but nothing spectacular. He had a solid boxing foundation, but he could be hit. He had athleticism, but didn't feature blazing hand or foot speed. 

The toughest test of his professional career was his 2019 fight against Batyr Akhmedov (who fights on Saturday's undercard). Despite scoring two knockdowns in that fight, I think that Barrios was fortunate to win the decision. Through large stretches of the fight Akhmedov outboxed Barrios, beat him to the punch and flummoxed him in the ring. 

The Akhmedov fight demonstrated that Barrios had a couple of defensive holes. Akhmedov punched with Barrios and had a lot of success. Barrios' punches can be long and he doesn't return his hands to a defensibly responsible position quickly enough. In addition, there was a significant gap in his hand positioning, leaving ample space to connect with shots between his guard. 

Barrios took some big punches in that fight, but a point in his favor is how he rallied in the 12th round to score a knockdown. That showed a ton of character and self-belief. It was a messy and brutal fight, but Barrios never stopped trying and was able to handle a level of duress to turn the tide at the end of the match. 

Gervonta Davis has only had to go the distance once in his career and that was a six-round fight back in 2014. Only four of his bouts have even made it to the seventh round. He's tremendously poised on the inside and positions himself expertly to land his power punches from the southpaw position. In my estimation he has four excellent knockout weapons: his left uppercut, his right hook to the body, his right hook to the head and his straight left to the body. He's a brutal body puncher and places his shots surgically. Almost every punch of his is hard and thrown with knockout intentions. 

Davis, like all fighters, has some flaws. He's not a high-volume guy. His gas tank can ebb and flow and he can't do a ton from the outside. In terms of the geography of a fight, Davis is well aware of his strengths and weaknesses and he knows that he has to get to mid-range and closer to win. Many fighters have tried to move away from him, but he can cut the ring off pretty well and doesn't need to burn a lot of energy to find opponents, even when they don't want to be found. 

My main concern for Barrios in this matchup is his ring discipline. Despite having an excellent trainer in Virgil Hunter, who preaches defense and responsibility in the ring, Barrios can freelance during fights in ways that aren't always advantageous to him. He can get dragged into exchanges and he can stick around in the pocket for a little too long. Make no mistake; Barrios can't run from Davis all fight. He's going to need to land hard shots and make Davis respect his power, but he has to accomplish this strategically. One or two shots at a time must be the order of the day and anything longer in an exchange will favor Davis. 

Davis needs to worry about not giving up too many early rounds. Barrios could potentially start well, using his reach and length to limit exchanges. It could take a few rounds for Davis to get into his preferred range. But Davis can't count on the knockout here. Although he has excellent power, it's not a given that his power will resonate at 140 lbs. the same way that it has at lower weights. I have no doubt that he can land on Barrios and probably hurt him, but that's not the same thing as getting a stoppage. Davis needs to compete every round. He has to give himself a chance on the cards. 

I'm not making a pick for this fight. For me, there are too many unknowns. Barrios has only had one world-class opponent in my opinion and his performance in that fight was a mixed bag. But it's certainly possible that he's learned a lot from that experience and has improved in the ring. We may not see the same fighter on Saturday who was in the ring against Akhmedov. I also don't know if Davis' power will have the same effect at junior welterweight. Barrios has never been in with a big puncher and I don't know enough about his chin. If he can withstand Davis' power, then this becomes a fascinating fight where Davis will need to find a Plan B. Ultimately, it's an intriguing matchup and one, in my estimation, filled with uncertainty. 

***

Erickson Lubin (23-1, 16 KOs) and Jeison Rosario (20-2-1, 14 KOs) have both been knocked out by Jermell Charlo, but their matchup on Saturday isn't a losers' bracket consolation fight. Both are top-ten boxers at junior middleweight and Saturday's fight will help determine which one will get another crack at winning a title. 

Lubin lost to Charlo in 2017 by first-round knockout in what was his first real step-up fight. Charlo discovered some weaknesses in Lubin's defense and the result was a short night at the office. Subsequently, Lubin would change trainers, switching to Kevin Cunningham, a veteran cornerman who has had success with southpaws such as Cory Spinks and Devon Alexander. In Lubin's comeback fights, he dominated Ishe Smith and turned in a solid performance against Nathaniel Gallimore. In those fights he displayed the type of hand speed and boxing ability that led to him being fast-tracked as a young prospect. 

Lubin (left) and Rosario sizing each other up
Photo courtesy of Amanda Westcott

Lubin's boxing comeback was going swimmingly until his last fight, where he was cracked in the final rounds against Terrell Gausha. Lubin wound up winning a decision, but there were some troubling signs. Gausha has less than a 50% knockout percentage and isn't a noted puncher, but yet he landed a number of overhand and straight rights that damaged Lubin. Lubin needed several rounds to regain his bearings.

In Rosario's last fight, he was dropped three times by Charlo, with a body shot jab in the eighth round ending the bout. That fight was a war and fascinating to watch. Although Charlo scored knockdowns in the first, sixth and eighth rounds, Rosario seemed to win almost every round where he stayed on his feet. He landed enormous power punches, but Charlo had the chin and poise to withstand the incoming fire. Rosario perhaps was the bigger puncher in the fight, but he couldn't take Charlo's shots as well as Charlo took his, and that was the difference. 

Perhaps my biggest concern with Rosario is his overconfidence in his power. Rosario hits hard, make no mistake about it, but he'll stay right in front of an opponent and is often amazed when a counter shot is thrown in return. If a fighter can take Rosario's punch, Rosario is there to be hit.  

Lubin has multiple paths to beat Rosario. Perhaps the first thing he should do is to check to see if Rosario is all there at the outset of the fight. Rosario's loss to Charlo was brutal and it's possible that he still feels the physical effects from that fight. Lubin would be wise to land something hard in the first round, test Rosario's body, and put some real mustard on his shots. And maybe that will be enough. If Rosario gets hurt, press him, and go for the finish. I don't think it would be wise to let Rosario get comfortable in the ring and gain confidence. A quick strike is necessary. 

If Rosario still looks sturdy after the first round or two, Lubin could then transition to his classic boxing skills, where he can let his speed and athleticism take over. That should give him a significant advantage throughout the first half of the fight. 

For Rosario, pacing will be important. He won't be able to outbox Lubin for 12 rounds, and he knows it. Lubin's chin issues are still there and it will really come down to whether Rosario can land the right punch or sequences of punches to get the stoppage. Rosario needs to invest in the body early and focus on making each shot count. In each round he has to take a little something out of Lubin, which will hopefully result in him moving less and taking some of the sting out of his punches. Rosario would also be wise to throw his wide hook and looping right hand, shots that Lubin doesn't see often and may catch him on the way out. 

I don't think this fight goes the distance. Lubin has a real opportunity to blitz Rosario early and it's possible that he could win in the first two or three rounds. However, my pick will be the underdog, Rosario. I don't believe that Lubin's chin is going to hold up against Rosario. He will get cracked with something hard and unlike Gausha, Rosario has the power and the finishing instincts to get the stoppage. If Rosario can survive the first few rounds, I think he can take Lubin out in the second half of the fight. I'll take him by eighth-round knockout. 

Adam Abramowitz is the founder and head writer of saturdaynightboxing.com. He's a member of Ring Magazine's Ring Ratings Panel and a Board Member for the Transnational Boxing Rankings Board. 

Email: saturdaynightboxing@hotmail.com.

snboxing on twitter. SN Boxing on Facebook. 

The Development Trap

The development trap is one of the true conundrums in the sport. Take the quick money, the early title shot, or pull back the reins and let talent develop. The right answer often isn’t obvious. This decision keeps matchmakers, managers and trainers up at night, and it’s one of beguiling and enduring mysteries in the sport. When is a fighter truly ready? It's impossible to know with 100% certainly. Sure, everyone will get it wrong at some point, but the question is how often, and what can be done to reduce a faulty process so that better decisions are made in the future?

The impetus behind this article is my belief that too many fighters are falling short of their potential due to a bad combination of not enough seasoning for top prospects and overly aggressive teams. There are not enough A-fighters in boxing right now, which is a concern. And the development trap issue isn't just a Top Rank problem or a PBC problem, it's categorical within the sport. 

***

In a weekend that featured Erickson Lubin, Jaron "Boots" Ennis and Tugstsogt "King Tug" Nyambayar, I started thinking about the development trap. On Saturday, Lubin was fighting Terrell Gausha, with the winner getting another shot at a world title. Three years ago, after just turning 22, Lubin had his first title opportunity against Jermell Charlo. Lubin had been a hyped prospect and his team had been pushing for him to be moved very quickly. Unfortunately for him, he didn't make it to the second round of that fight as Charlo destroyed him with a three-punch combination. Lubin's defense fell apart completely because of a double jab. This resulted in Lubin leaving his left side completely unguarded for Charlo's right hand. There was nothing fancy in Charlo's combination, but it was concerning to see Lubin react so poorly to a basic boxing move. 

It's not that a 22-year old can't become a boxing champ. Certainly many have and many more will achieve the feat. But the proposition becomes far more difficult when the 22-year-old has faced such a weak slate of development opponents. In Lubin's 18 fights prior to Charlo, there was no former champ or tough contender on his resume. Although he fought numerous lower-level gatekeepers and trial horses, no opponent in his development would have been a threat at the top of the junior middleweight division. 

After the Charlo loss, Lubin regrouped and fought among others a faded champ in Ishe Smith and a rugged contender in Nathaniel Gallimore, precisely the type of opponents that Lubin should have fought before his title shot (And those were the exact two opponents that Julian Williams faced after also getting knocked out in his first title shot. Williams was another boxer who fought a relatively weak collection of developmental opponents.) 

Lubin (left) curls his left around Gausha
Photo Courtesy of Amanda Westcott

On Saturday, Lubin scarcely resembled the young gun who entered the ring full of confidence a few years back. He boxed cautiously. He pumped out his right jab and opened up sporadically. He would box his way to unanimous decision and he was able to hurt Gausha in the 12th round with a sharp right hook. But Lubin was hurt badly in the 10th round by an overhand right by Gausha, who is not a big puncher or an adept finisher. Lubin's leg gave out after absorbing the shot and if Gausha had more power or guile in putting his shots together, he certainly could have ended the fight. Lubin deserves credit for eventually recovering, but he had to survive some rocky moments. 

Lubin is still young and can improve, but his defensive shortcomings are still present. His left glove positioning is a mess. He will put it in all sorts of places during a fight. At points he tucked his left glove under his chin, which would make it impossible to protect himself from a temple shot or a shot high on the head (and would you believe that's the punch that Gausha hurt him with?) But let's say Jermell Charlo wins his fight this weekend (which isn't a given) and faces Lubin for a second time. Who would be confident that Lubin wins the rematch?

And all of this leads back to Lubin's development. Shouldn't his management and backers have been aware of these issues before throwing him in his initial title fight? If he was stepped up more gradually, wouldn't Lubin have been in a better position to learn from his mistakes and correct them in future bouts? It turns out that Gausha was a great opponent for Lubin. He landed a couple of hard shots, but didn't really possess the next-level talent to beat him. And Saturday's experience would have been even better had it happened before the title shot. Maybe his team would have then realized that Lubin still needed a few more fights to correct some defensive issues, to learn how to deal with duress better.  

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King Tug Nyambayar won a split decision against late replacement Cobia Breedy in the co-feature to Lubin-Gausha. Earlier in the year Tug lost a spirited fight to featherweight champion Gary Russell. That fight, like Saturday's one against Breedy, featured a concerning performance from Tug. During the first-half of the Russell bout, Tug seemed completely overwhelmed in the ring. He had no answers for Russell’s hand or foot speed, and didn't have the confidence to put punches together. Eventually he came on and won some rounds in the back half of the fight. But still, he wasn't fully prepared for the Russell bout. But why would he have been? It was only his 12th professional fight. Defeating slow-handed fighters like Claudio Marrero and Oscar Escandon wouldn't have prepared Tug for Russell's speed. But Tug's team was more interested in positioning its fighter for a title shot than actually preparing him for one. 

Tugstsogt "King Tug" Nyambayar (left) with a left hook
Photo Courtesy of Amanda Westcott

On Saturday, despite dropping Breedy twice (once in the first, once in the second), Tug had to sweat it out on the cards. You know why? Because he still isn't a 12-round fighter. Despite having a significant power advantage and an opponent who could be hurt, Nyambayar just didn't want to work a whole fight. Again, these are the types of traits that should be known about a fighter before he reaches the top. 

Lubin and Tug still have significant flaws, even after their title losses, which begs the question of why their teams were throwing them into title shots far before they were ready. It's one thing to roll the dice with a limited fighter and put him in a title shot. It's another thing to shortchange a legit prospect's development. I mean, it's sad to see Lubin fighting gun shy at 24. Here was one of America's top amateurs and in just a few short years he doesn't feel comfortable opening up against a non-puncher. Clearly that wasn't the plan. 

Of course, another part of the development trap is rushing a guy into a title shot, and he wins. Consider Shakur Stevenson for a moment. He's a young kid with all the promise in the world. After just 12 pro fights he was sent into a title shot and he won, convincingly might I add, against Joet Gonzalez. But here's the rub: Stevenson is only 23 and because he makes good money, he will now only be fighting most likely twice a year. He's still at a crucial development time in his career and it would be an absolute sin for his talent to be sitting on the shelf for six months at a time. Think about how much he could improve with more camps and legit opponents. To date he's only faced two fighters, Christopher Diaz and Gonzalez, whom I would refer to as even "B-level." And it's a strange, messed up sport when Stevenson's last opponent, Felix Caraballo, who lost every second of his fight against Shakur, gets brought back to fight this past weekend by the same promotional company while there's not even a peep about Stevenson's next bout. 

On one hand Stevenson is now in a position where he is making mid-six figures a fight. That's very good money. However, what if he doesn't become as great as he could have been? Even after winning a belt he still doesn't have a ton of professional seasoning. What if he never develops the fan base that he should because he's not in the ring often enough? Although I'm sure Stevenson and his team may be quite happy with many of their choices, an argument can be made that their current path may reduce their chances of seeing the big money down the road. Stevenson should be back in the ring as soon as possible. He was barely touched in his last fight. Yet...crickets. This scenario is another manifestation of the development trap. 

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Let's take a look at three uber-talented young American fighters: Vergil Ortiz (22 years old, 16-0), Devin Haney (21 years old, 24-0) and Boots Ennis (23 years old, 26-0). All three of these fighters could be on the short list of the top fighters in the sport in five years. However, only one of them currently is a "champion," which is Haney, who has a version of the WBC lightweight belt. Haney and his team initially wanted a shot as Lomachenko, which is their right (even though Haney hadn't fought anyone of note on his way up). However, Lomachenko's team and the WBC concocted a scheme whereby Haney would not get a Lomachenko fight but would receive some piece of silverware from the organization. Meanwhile, Ennis and Ortiz have both fought twice since Haney last laced them up (to be fair, Haney did have a minor shoulder surgery).  

Needless to say, a 21-year-old should not be out of the ring for a year. And perhaps if Haney wasn't a "champion" right now, he could have already made his way back on a smaller card. Ennis and Ortiz are continuing to develop while Haney has done all of his fighting in 2020 through press releases and interviews. 

On the flip side, it's easy to see the talent of Ennis and Ortiz and say that they're ready for a title shot now. I mean, we don't see a lot of five-star prospects these days. And maybe these two fighters, not fully polished yet, could win a title. But to this point their respective teams aren't forcing that direction. Perhaps we must give credit to Errol Spence and Terence Crawford for that as well. Ennis and Ortiz are both welterweights, and there isn't a path to grab a belt against a less-than-elite fighter. Maybe if the Carlos Baldomirs of the world still held a welterweight title, the teams of Ortiz and Ennis would be friskier. 

Jaron "Boots" Ennis (right) splits the guard of Abreu
Photo Courtesy of Amanda Westcott

For now, they are playing it smart. The repetitions of additional training camps and pro fights, and the steady raising of opposition quality still have a role to play. Ennis, despite an abundance of talent, has yet to face even a B-fighter, and although Ortiz has, you won't find a true contender on his resume. Both also still have things to work on. Ennis didn't look particularly comfortable in the clinch against Luis Carlos Abreu on Saturday, constantly looking to the ref for help and exhibiting bad body language. You can bet that other fighters and trainers saw that as well. If I'm Ennis's team, I put him in with a mauler or a grappler next to have him more comfortable with that style. As for Ortiz, he has made steady strides with his defense, especially with seeing opposing right hands. But he still leaves himself a little too open during exchanges. Both fighters need to make additional refinements before fully reaching their best in the ring. 

Yet Haney, because he is "champion," because at 21 he insists he is in the big-money phase of his career, will play around hoping that Gary Russell will fight him. If the Russell fight doesn't materialize next, Haney will then fight the ghost of Yuriorkis Gamboa, who when last we saw him had only one Achilles tendon and the ability to take hard shots. Isn't this version of Gamboa the guy Haney should have been fighting three, four fights ago? How is a past-it Gamboa going to make Haney a better fighter? Haney fighting a "name" is more important to his team right now then actually having him improve as a fighter, which is a classic development trap.

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Let's end this on a positive note. Matching and developing fighters is more of an art than a science. A team can do everything right and a fighter can still come up short. A boxer can have poor development bouts and yet still have a Hall of Fame career (take a look at Andre Ward's poor development slate). But what upsets me the most is when teams make poor decisions because they didn't have the right information, because they ignored it, or because they weren't interested in finding out about their fighter. Far too many in the sport pride themselves on maneuvering or positioning their fighters into title opportunities instead of developing top talents. Of course, once you have the connections, it's far easier to maneuver than to develop. 

This brings us to Jermell Charlo, who fights Jeison Rosario on Saturday for a chance to unify three belts in the 154-lb. division. Jermell Charlo was once thought of as the lesser talent to his brother Jermall. Big brother Jermall was the puncher and little brother Jermell was the jabber. If you look at Jermell's slate of development fights, you can tell that nothing was gift wrapped for him. Prior to fighting for a belt, he faced Vanes Martirosyan, a U.S. Olympian who could box, had power and liked it rough on the inside. He fought Gabe Rosado, perhaps one of the sport's pre-eminent B-fighters, a guy who keeps coming despite whatever return fire comes his way. Charlo defeated Joachim Alcine, a former champ and tricky mover. In addition, he fought Demetrius Hopkins, a rugged and skilled B-fighter. He also took on tough gatekeepers such as Dashon Johnson, Denis Douglin and Francisco Santana. 

In short, Charlo was as ready as he was going to be for his first title shot, which he won in a challenging fight against John Jackson. Jermell's team didn't fall for the development trap. He was given the appropriate opponents and time to develop. Perhaps because he was never among the absolute best prospects coming up, he was afforded more patience. And that patience has been rewarded. Should he win on Saturday, he will have three belts and a seat at the table with the other elite fighters in boxing. Jermell Charlo is proof that sometimes matchmakers, managers, advisors, promoters and the fighters themselves get it right, allowing a talent to flourish to his full potential. I wish that would happen more. When it works, the results can be magical. 

Adam Abramowitz is the founder and head writer of saturdaynightboxing.com. He's a member of Ring Magazine's Ring Ratings Panel and a Board Member for the Transnational Boxing Rankings Board. 

Email: saturdaynightboxing@hotmail.com.

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