Showing posts with label Davis-Garcia. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Davis-Garcia. Show all posts

Sunday, April 23, 2023

Opinions and Observations: Davis-Garcia

Even though Gervonta "Tank" Davis and Ryan Garcia entered Saturday's matchup with a similar number of fights – 28 for Tank and 23 for Garcia – it became obvious that there was a master-student dynamic in the ring. In the two most pivotal moments of the fight, Tank's knockdown in the second round and his KO in the seventh, Tank, like a wise old sage, exploited Garcia's reckless aggression in short order, sending the pupil to the canvas twice. 

Both instances followed periods of success for Garcia. And as Ryan landed more shots, he pressed what he perceived as an advantage, but ultimately, the master punished his student for overconfidence. 

Davis landing a straight left
Photo courtesy of Esther Lin

In the second round Garcia landed a series of cuffing right hands in close range. He continued to go on attack and overshot a wild left hook. The shot left him wildly out of position. Tank adeptly pivoted and countered with a blistering short left to the head that dropped Garcia.

That knockdown spooked Garcia. He was chastened. He was unwilling to take chances or let his hands go in a meaningful way during the third, fourth and fifth.  

But by the sixth round, Garcia had regathered himself and felt comfortable going on the offensive again. He landed several hard right hands to the head. As the seventh started, Garcia continued his aggressive forays, attacking Tank with power shots. And as he lunged forward with a combination, Tank snuck in a perfectly placed left to the body as Garcia's arms were extended and his body unprotected. Garcia actually landed his right hand as the final punch of the exchange, but the pain from Tank's left started to circulate throughout his body. He took a step back. He dropped to a knee. He couldn't beat Thomas Taylor's ten-count.  

Tank-Garcia will not be remembered for its round-by-round entertainment value. Although the fight was intriguing on strategic and technical levels, the punch volume from both was meager. There were prolonged periods of inaction, where both fighters were unwilling to throw punches. But the fight did provide a vital, conclusive ending. It also crystalized important points about two of the most significant American boxing attractions. 

First, Tank confirmed his status as a master counterpuncher. He exploited split-second opportunities that demonstrated superior technical skills, self-confidence and clear mental processing. Many fighters would have immediately retreated into a defensive shell when Garcia unfurled his menacing left hook, but Tank stood his ground, slipped the punch, and executed his counter left with ruthless proficiency.  

Similarly, when Garcia charged forward in the seventh after having sustained success in the previous round, many fighters would have gone into self-protection mode to take the steam off Ryan's combination. But Tank instinctively recognized an opportunity; he fired the perfect short counter in a tight window. The punch was so precise and sneaky that a replay was needed to grasp its perfection. These were masterful boxing moves.  

As for Garcia, he admitted after the fight that he had tried to force the action too much. Even though his trainer Joe Goossen had wanted Ryan to fight more responsibly, Ryan ignored that advice and went after Tank, to his own detriment. Garcia lacked the emotional maturity to understand the risks involved in the fight. He was too overeager to impress, to put his signature stamp on the fight, to be the alpha dog.  

In theory Saturday's result could be a great learning opportunity for Garcia. He should now realize that his technical flaws can jeopardize his career. He paid massively for overcommitting, for falling out of position and for running into traps.  

However, until he understands that he must be more adaptable in his fighting style, it's very likely that we will see similar outcomes against top opponents. He has to be able to win fights in different ways. Who's to say what would have happened if Garcia decided to box Davis at range all fight? Yes, the bout might have been boring and maybe Tank would have eventually gotten to him, but Ryan wouldn't have been hitting the canvas in the second round and rendered ineffective until the sixth. Goossen thought that Ryan needed to be more contained to have success, but Ryan had other ideas. 

Garcia has to learn that momentary mistakes can have massive consequences. And not all of these mistakes are technical in nature. Some of them involve his decision-making process: when to engage and when to bide time. 

Photo courtesy of Ryan Hafey

Meanwhile, Tank's knockout show marches on. With an almost inconceivable 27 knockouts in 29 fights, Davis is one of the true killers in the sport. I do look at his punch stat numbers with some concern though. As he faces better competition, it's likely that more of his fights will go the distance. And in 12-round fights, Tank's punch volume can be problematic for winning rounds. Judges just aren't going to give a guy a lot of credit when he throws under ten punches a round. Ten punches a round is a punch every 18 seconds. That's a long time! 

Tank's lack of activity explains why none of the judges awarded him a 10-8 round in the second even though he scored a knockdown. He only threw six punches the entire round. That's one punch every 30 seconds! He just wasn’t doing enough.  

At boxing's highest level, it's fine margins that can make the difference. Garcia found out the hard way what happens when he lunges in with shots and ignores the advice of a seasoned trainer. And perhaps Davis will realize one day that every point matters. Imagine if a fight goes to the scorecards and he loses or draws because he didn't get a 10-8 round where he scores a knockdown. Winning rounds matters and Tank must find a way to be busier, to make it harder for judges to give rounds to his opponents. 

But all of that is for another day. 

In facing one of the toughest tests of his career, Tank passed with flying colors and demonstrated that he belongs at the graduate level; Garcia still needs to repeat his current grade. Ultimately, if a fighter makes a mistake, Tank will punish him. That's his calling card. He exploits weaknesses. He takes out lesser talents and exposes their flaws. Davis only needs a couple moments, a brief, fleeting opportunity to cause maximum damage.  

It's going to take a special talent to beat Tank: one who can stay within himself, fight intelligently, not get too caught up in the moment, offer punch volume while minimizing return risk. There aren't many of those boxers in the sport. And that's the central problem when facing Davis. A fighter will have to be close to perfect to beat him, and perfection is seldom seen in the ring. 

Adam Abramowitz is the founder and head writer of saturdaynightboxing.com
He's a contributing writer for Ring Magazine, a member of Ring Magazine's Ring Ratings Panel and a Board Member for the Transnational Boxing Rankings Board. 
snboxing on twitter. SN Boxing on Facebook.

Wednesday, April 19, 2023

Davis-Garcia: Preview and Prediction

In an electrifying matchup on Saturday between two of boxing's rising stars, Gervonta Davis (28-0, 26 KOs) faces Ryan Garcia (23-0, 19 KOs) at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. Although no major belts will be on the line, the winner of Saturday's fight will be rightfully viewed as one of the faces of U.S. and international boxing moving forward. 

Davis at 28 and Garcia at 24 are both in their athletic primes and feature knockout ratios above 80%. The fight will be contested at a catchweight of 136 lbs., one of two deal points that on paper could help Davis (the other being a punitive 10-lb. maximum rehydration clause, which in theory could hurt Garcia, who is perceived as being the bigger boxer in terms of his best fighting weight). 

In analyzing this matchup, the most important aspect to me is power. Both possess it. Both haven't faced much of it. Who can utilize it better? Who can take it better? Although Davis has faced taller orthodox fighters such as Mario Barrios and Leo Santa Cruz and Garcia has fought several southpaws, including Javier Fortuna and Luke Campbell, neither has fought a guy with the power profile that his opponent will be bringing into the ring. To this point we've yet to see Davis seriously hurt in a fight while Garcia has been dropped by a Luke Campbell straight left. But let's dive deeper.  

Ryan Garcia has one of the best left hooks in boxing. It may be one of the few A-plus punches in the sport. The trick to it is the tremendous amount of torque he gets on the shot. He literally whips the punch to his desired location. It's lightning quick, powerful and he can place it beautifully. Despite the number of technical errors that Garcia can make in the ring (more on this later), he does a tremendous job of disguising his hook. He can look right at an opponent's eyes and go down to the body with it. He can take a step back and throw it as a counter. He can lead with it from distance. 

"Tank" Davis has never faced such a punch in his professional career. And like another blessed left hooker, Nonito Donaire, Garcia has the power to end any fight with his best hook.  

Davis (left) and Garcia at the introductory presser
Photo courtesy of Ryan Hafey

Davis is a far more well-rounded puncher. He features several knockout weapons, including his straight left, an overhand left, uppercuts with either hand and his right hook. He's also a gifted combination puncher and often catches opponents with shots that they don't see.  

Both fighters believe in their power and probably have fallen in love with it a little too much. Garcia can get frustrated if he's not landing his left hook. Although he does have a jab and a serviceable right hand, he can get flustered when the knockout doesn't come quickly.  

Davis is not a guy who goes into fights trying to win rounds (one day this really could become a major issue). Especially when he perceives a threat, Davis will reduce his punch volume at the beginning of a fight as he acclimates to his opponent and attempts to identify potential weaknesses. 

But while he can fall behind in the punch volume game, he does have an improvisational genius in figuring out what can work in the ring against a given opponent. He will often use his opponents' strengths against them. More than once he has folded an overly aggressive opponent with a perfectly placed counter.  

The two main issues for the fight that I see are Ryan Garcia's defense and what happens if Tank can't land the home run punch. These two things are related, of course. Ryan's chin is a major issue. Yes, he's been down before, but in this context I'm not referring to his ability to take a punch. I'm talking literally; his chin is easy to find. He only features sporadic head movement and often stands far too upright leaving his chin exposed. Additionally, when he shoots his punches he will often lunge in with his body before throwing the shot, making his chin even more vulnerable to incoming fire. An unprotected chin is not a recipe for long-term success in boxing. 

However, let's also consider that Ryan has one of the best trainers in the business in Joe Goossen and I'm sure that Joe is well aware of Garcia's chin placement issues. I have no doubt that he’s worked with Ryan to address these flaws. This doesn't mean that Ryan will suddenly become impenetrable, but perhaps he won't lunge in as much. And maybe his body won't be over his front foot as it has been in the past. If Ryan is able to fix these issues, then he can be much more difficult to hit cleanly.

And this is what leads to the central conundrum for Tank in the fight: What happens if the knockout doesn't come?

I expect him to be cautious in the early going as he tries to adjust to Garcia's hand speed and defend the left hook. But what happens if he can't crack Garcia's chin with his best shot? What if the fight gets to the second half and Tank is down significantly on the scorecards? I have no doubt that Garcia will be attempting to put rounds in the bank. What happens if he builds up an early lead and tries to play keep away in the second half?  

In the Barrios fight Tank showed an impressive ability to turn on the gas when needed, and he might be in a similar predicament during Saturday's fight. But let's face it: Garcia is far more of a threat than Barrios. Tank may not be able to just simply turn on a switch. The other guy is bringing a lot of thunder to the dance as well.    

Prediction:

I'm not expecting Davis-Garcia to be a wall-to-wall action fight. I think it will be a cagey affair between two young fighters who have a tremendous amount of respect for the other. But I believe that the more versatile one, the one who has the higher Ring IQ will be the one with his hand raised in victory. 

After some rough early moments, I think that Davis will work his way into the fight and gradually unfurl his arsenal. Davis' creative punch selection will keep Garcia guessing. And Garcia's inability to recognize punch sequences or take away weapons will lead to his undoing.  

I think that the fight will turn on Tank's superior ring craft. His ability to feint and set up shots will benefit him the longer the fight goes. Garcia will be respecting Tank's power and that will allow Tank to create openings with feints, traps and misdirection. I think that Tank's overhand left will be a key weapon. And he can throw it as a lead, at the end of a combination or after feinting with the jab to the body. 

I don't think this will be an easy fight for Tank, but eventually I believe that he will get the job done. I have no doubt that he will have some choppy moments and will be forced to think his way through the fight to get to Garcia. But the longer the fight goes the more success I see him having. In the second half of the fight I think that he will start to open up Garcia with a variety of power punches and combinations. Ultimately, I see an overhand left finishing the job around the eighth round.    

Gervonta Davis KO 8 Ryan Garcia.

Adam Abramowitz is the founder and head writer of saturdaynightboxing.com
He's a contributing writer for Ring Magazine, a member of Ring Magazine's Ring Ratings Panel and a Board Member for the Transnational Boxing Rankings Board. 
snboxing on twitter. SN Boxing on Facebook.