Saturday Night Boxing: Opinions and Observations: Nakatani-Hernandez

Everything looked so easy for Junto Nakatani in the early rounds against Sebastian Hernandez. Unloading with straight lefts, overhand lefts, and uppercuts with both hands, Nakatani displayed his myriad offensive gifts, the reasons why he had won world titles at multiple weight classes and was safely ensconced on pound-for-pound lists.

But a funny thing happened on the way to Nakatani making an emphatic statement for his 122-lb. debut: Hernandez refused to comply. Despite getting hit with the kitchen sink in the first few rounds, Hernandez was undeterred. He kept marching forward, determined to get inside on Nakatani.

By the second half of the fight Hernandez was the one in control. The bout turned into a battle of close combat and in that distance, Hernandez was superior. His left hooks were blistering, causing significant damage to Nakatani's right eye. In addition, he was much more fluid with combinations at short range. While Nakatani was landing the single left uppercut or straight left, Hernandez was charging in behind threes and fours.

Hernandez (left) and Nakatani went to war
Photo courtesy of Mark Robinson/Matchroom Boxing

In the tenth, Nakatani wisely got on his bike and had a better round by circling and turning Hernandez, but he didn't continue to apply those tactics, and Hernandez resumed his relentless assault in the final two rounds.

The final scores had Nakatani winning by 115-113 x 2 and a laughably incompetent 118-110. I scored the fight a draw, 114-114. In my opinion the two 115-113 scores were plausible cards.

Although Hernandez arrived in Saudi Arabia with little fanfare, he was not anonymous to those who have been following the junior featherweight division. He entered the fight ranked on Ring Magazine's top-ten list at 122 lbs. and his efforts against Nakatani further confirmed his talent as a top junior featherweight. (Disclaimer: I am a member of the Ring Magazine Ratings Panel.)

Perhaps even more impressive than Hernandez's technical skills at close range were his will, conditioning, and chin. Make no mistake; Hernandez was getting blown out early in the fight, where the commentators had to strain to find a successful punch that he landed. But he kept going, believing in himself and his attributes as a fighter. With an insane work rate in the second half of the fight, he bent the flashier Nakatani to his will and forced an attritional war upon him. He was the one who will exit the fight having gained confidence and a boatload of new fans.

Even during Nakatani's early success in the fight, I was concerned by aspects of his performance. Nakatani was throwing a bullshit jab all fight. He wasn't trying to land the punch and threw it with so little belief. It's the type of ineffectual jab that a pressure fighter can easily walk through. In addition, where was Nakatani's right hook? He could have used that punch as a lead in close quarters or as part of a combination after the straight left or left uppercut, but he hardly threw it all fight, and Hernadez was open to be hit with that punch.

But what was most troubling to me was how Nakatani and his trainer Rudy Hernandez let the fight get away from them. I think it was the tenth round where I saw Nakatani clinch for the first time and to me that highlighted a central flaw with his performance: He could not slow the fight down.

There was hardly any clinching, very little circling and few periods of effective jabbing. Nakatani was the better athlete and the one who could utilize more advanced angles, yet there he was slugging it out round after round. He had more weapons in his arsenal but didn't use them. Was it overconfidence in his punching power and early success? A lack of confidence in clinching (where he didn't look fluid when he tried it)? Bad corner instructions? None of those answers are going to be positive when Nakatani and Rudy Hernandez review the fight.

As has been discussed for many months, this bout was supposed to set up a super fight with Naoya Inoue next year (Inoue won a wide decision over Alan Picasso on the card). Although Inoue and Hernandez fight nothing alike, Nakatani and Rudy Hernadez's lack of adjustments on Saturday was concerning. Sebastian Hernandez was able to turn the tide of the fight and Nakatani didn't come up with a suitable Plan B.

Meanwhile, it's clear from the aftermath of Inoue's recent wars with Nary and Cardenas that he has now adopted a more conservative Plan B as his base fighting style. He's dominated two fighters after the style switch. Now it's time for Nakatani and Rudy Hernandez to figure out what went wrong against Sebastian Hernandez and make their needed adjustments.

I still think that Nakatani's length, punch variety and Inoue's low right hand will provide Nakatani with plenty of opportunities to be competitive in that matchup. But Inoue still hasn't had a close fight on the scorecards. He's been knocked down but has regathered himself to stop those opponents. He's never been outboxed for sustained stretches of a fight like Nakatani was against Hernandez.

As an early believer in Nakatani's talent, I expected him to become among the best fighters in the sport. However, to ascend to that top rung in boxing, the one where Inoue finds himself, more will be required. Nakatani didn't handle duress well against Hernandez. He made no significant adjustments and was fortunate to have won the fight. Nakatani will now have to show that he has the elite ring intelligence to match his technical skills. That is his last hurdle, and after his performance against Hernadez, it remains an open question if he can get to the mountaintop.