Notes from Agbeko-Mares

• The Joseph Agbeko-Abner Mares bout will forever be known as the "Russell Mora Fight."  The ultimate scores or outcome of the match should be tossed out the window.  Mora did such an incompetent job in refereeing the fight that he sabotaged the end result.  He incorrectly ruled a knockdown in round 11 and repeatedly failed to deduct points from Mares for numerous low blows.  If the fight was refereed correctly, the swing in scoring from just those actions would have been monumental.  If Mora did his job properly, than Mares would have fought in a completely different manner and Agbeko would have had more energy throughout the match.

• Think for a second of how painful it would be to get hit in the family jewels over a dozen times in an hour.  Also, factor in Agbeko's advanced age; older fighters with more wear and tear on their bodies don't recover nearly as well as their younger counterparts do.  For another example about how low blows can significantly alter the course of a match, remember in the Miguel Cotto-Zab Judah fight where Judah was rocking Cotto in the early rounds.  By the fourth round, Cotto landed two thunderous low blows, and Judah was not the same in the rest of the fight.  Now, take into consideration that Agbeko was hit by more than a dozen damaging shots.  Ultimately, Mares' win is tainted by his repeated low blows and the referee's refusal to deduct points.

• The technical aspects of the fight were not as important as the overriding illegality of these punches.  Sure, Mares got off some snappy combinations in the early rounds, but how do we know that Agbeko wasn't significantly damaged by the illegal shots?  Any fighter would have been affected by that kind of abuse.  Most probably, his movement was stunted because of the lingering pain and/or debilitating nature of the low blows. 

• In terms of Agbeko's performance, he displayed bravery and determination, regardless of the outcome.  He didn't resort to cheap tactics when he had every reasonable right to do so.  Even after all of the illegal shots, he came on in the second half of the fight and gave himself the chance to win.

• From a technical perspective, the turning point of the fight was the 8th round, when Agbeko started to throw lead uppercuts.  Mares had no answer for that punch.  In actuality, Mares' defense was pretty bad throughout the fight.  His glove positioning constantly moved, similar to a miniature golf obstacle.  Thus, he was not in position to defend himself from incoming fire.  Agbeko landed stinging jabs and some thunderous right hands because of this flaw. 

• Mares did have the correct strategy in terms of going to the body and being first with his punches.  His left hook to the body was his money punch all night.  He also threw solid combinations and got out of firing range pretty well.  When Mares decided to counter, he scored well with solid right hands and left hooks. 

• Furthermore, Mares showed that his chin was top-notch.  That right hand which Agbeko landed in the fourth round might have been the best punch of his career.  Mares' knees buckled, but he took the punch and pressed on.

• From a conditioning standpoint, Mares left a lot to be desired.  He had a six-year age advantage over Agbeko and yet Agbeko, the man who had to overcome repeated fouls, was the fresher fighter down the stretch.  By the 10th round, Mares was throwing a lot of arm punches.  Mares' defense, which wasn't great throughout the fight, continued to deteriorate as the night progressed.

• In a perfect world, the Nevada Athletic Commission would suspend Russell Mora.  Nevada needs boxing and it’s essential for the state's economy to continue to get big fights.  With Russell Mora, Vic Drakulich, Jay Nady and Joe Cortez, the jurisdiction has four problem referees.  At a certain point, promoters steer fights away from states with shoddy refereeing.  The inability of Texas and Florida to consistently get big fights, despite favorable boxing demographics, can be partly attributed to their weak regulatory commissions and their erratic referees and judges.  No, Las Vegas is not in danger of losing all of its boxing activity, but even if it loses a few fights a year because of problems with the Commission, that would be a serious blow to the state.  With a few more performances like Mora's in high-profile fights, the state's reputation for fairness in its officiating and judging could be significantly damaged.  

• The Nevada Athletic Commission prides itself on being one of the most progressive regulatory bodies in boxing.  If it wants to maintain that reputation, then the Commission must seriously reconsider who it selects for high-profile fights.  There have been numerous refereeing issues over the last four years, so much so that a top-to-bottom review of its referee training program needs to commence immediately. 

• Furthermore, the IBF should do the right thing and order an immediate rematch.  If I were Agbeko, I'm not sure that I would take the fight.  The type of illegal beating he received from Mares could be career-damaging.  Agbeko is a proud man and I'm sure that he wants his belt back, but why go through all of that again? 

• For Mares, the win demonstrates very little.  Nonito Donaire would pick him apart with his speed, accuracy and power.  It isn't clear that Mares would have won either of his fights in the Showtime bantamweight tournament without the illegal low blows.

• Finally, the Showtime announcing team had an exemplary night.  The broadcast crew of Gus Johnson, Al Bernstein and Antonio Tarver did not pull any punches.  They called the action honestly and with warranted indignation.  They got the story of the fight right.  Agbeko-Mares was about fouling and incompetence, not Mares' victory.  Jim Gray's interview with Russell Mora was devastating, as the ref refused to acknowledge that he blew the knockdown call in the 11th, even after watching it on replay. 

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On Floyd Mayweather's Popularity

Unquestionably one of the top-two attractions in boxing, Floyd Mayweather, Jr. generates the highest American pay-per-view numbers in the sport.  He has built an international following.  Every time he laces up the gloves, he earns tens of millions of dollars.  

However, there exists a significant historical disconnect between Mayweather's cautious or deliberate approach to boxing and his widespread acclaim.  In examining the star attractions of boxing over the last 40 years, the popularity of Mayweather stands out as all the more unique, in that, unlike most of the international stars of the sport, Mayweather boxes in a cerebral manner that doesn't necessarily lend itself to memorable fights or obvious entertainment value.

  

If you consider the most popular fighters of the last 40 years – Sugar Ray Leonard, Roberto Duran, Tommy Hearns, Marvin Hagler, Mike Tyson, Evander Holyfield, Roy Jones, Oscar de La Hoya and Manny Pacquiao, to name a few – all of them had ring identities which easily translated to their enormous out-of-the ring popularity.  

The appeal of these fighters is obvious.  Leonard, Jones and Pacquiao featured unique, athletic gifts and damaging power.  Hearns, Duran and Tyson were destroyers.  Holyfield and Hagler fought the best of their era, and if they lacked flash, their willingness to engage in wars won them over to large audiences.  De la Hoya was not as talented as the others on the list, but he took on all comers and participated in some classic battles.  Even a problem fighter like Lennox Lewis, who often fought passively, could galvanize with memorable knockouts.

Mayweather possesses none of these qualities.  Sure, he administered a beatdown of Diego Corrales and ended Ricky Hatton's night with a perfectly-placed left hook, but a normal Floyd Mayweather fight consists of him winning a decision of something like 119-109.  In the last ten years, he has fought 17 times and has only scored 7 knockdowns, with most of them over fighters well beneath his skill level, such as Henry Bruseles and Phillip N'Dou.  There have been many occasions where he seemingly could have knocked out his opponents (Shane Mosley, Juan Manuel Marquez), but he chose not to take pursue those risks.  

His ring craft is built on discipline, technique, defense and counterpunching.  Those four attributes do not often convert new people into boxing fans.  Yet, Mayweather's following has steadily risen without a signature win or even a great fight.  He pot-shotted his way to victory over Oscar de la Hoya.  He used Arturo Gatti's face as a human piñata.  Mayweather landed the great hook against Hatton.  He survived a tough battle in close quarters against Jose Luis Castillo and knocked down a weight-drawn Diego Corrales repeatedly.  Sure, some of these were great performances, but not one of these bouts was a fight-of-the-year candidate or, to put it another way, how many of these fights would be shown on ESPN Classic?  What would a "Best of Floyd Mayweather" DVD even look like?

However, it is incontrovertible that Mayweather has crossed over to casual and general sports fans.  His fights have generated hundreds of millions of dollars of economic activity.  He has appeared in Sprint commercials and was a contestant on Dancing with the Stars.  Even with sports fans' frustration over the failure to make Mayweather-Pacquiao, a fight which would determine the best boxer in the sport, Mayweather's status continues to ascend.  

Outside of the ring, he is a polarizing figure, featuring a killer smile, acts of good deeds, but also a nasty streak.  He has been involved in several legal proceedings over the last decade, many of which have involved battery or assault.  He has also made many outlandish remarks regarding his opponents.  Mayweather apologists would like to dismiss these comments as "braggadocio" or "trash-talking," but he has insulted races, implied illegal wrongdoing and has made disparaging statements about fighters' wives and families.  

Mayweather is a fascinating figure who changed his moniker from "Pretty Boy" to "Money."  In previous generations, this form of immodesty would be anathema to a culture that prided itself on hard work and middle-class values of family and decency.  Yet, Mayweather clearly represents a modern archetype that has captivated his followers.  He typifies the athlete-as-businessman.  Mayweather has no boss.  He fights who and when he wants to fight.  Because of his refusal to have long-term promotional contracts, he likely receives the most generous apportionment of fight-related revenues of any top-tier boxer.  No promoter or network dictates to him; he sets the agenda.   

Even though the total package of Floyd Mayweather features a number of negative qualities, how he has fashioned his career contains many aspirational components.  He may say unpleasant, if not awful, things to his opponents, and yet he guarantees them the highest paydays of their respective careers.  His significant financial demands have helped to create larger platforms for the sport's exposure.

As inconceivable as it would be to imagine great technical boxers of the past like Pernell Whitaker or Mark "Too Sharp" Johnson becoming elite attractions in the sport, Floyd Mayweather has transcended this supposed limitation, having millions watch his superior displays of defense, ring generalship and expert punch placement.  If boxing or sports fans at-large have been disappointed by Mayweather's entertainment value in the ring, they certainly haven't indicated any displeasure via the marketplace; even after two prolonged absences from the ring, he is bigger than ever.

Because of Mayweather and only Mayweather, millions of boxing fans are buying pay-per-views and tickets to watch pure boxing matches, not wars or slugfests.  This dynamic is strange for boxing's powerbrokers to comprehend; they often feel insecure about their product and continually worry about the supposed decline of the sport.  Yet Mayweather has consistently delivered outstanding revenues for the boxing industry.

Mayweather's personality and out-of-the ring attributes have certainly contributed to his lofty economic perch, but, make no mistake, boxing fans know they are watching excellence.  Consumers recognize Mayweather as a special boxing talent.  Even if many watch in hopes of seeing him lose, all can acknowledge that they are seeing greatness of a certain stripe in the ring.

No, technical boxers will not become the next flavor-of-the-day for television executives and the big money interests in boxing, but they should understand that people gravitate towards transcendent athletes.  Golf's revenues exploded when Tiger Woods was decimating his competition.  Barry Bonds filled ballparks throughout his career.  Millions paid to see Michael Jordan and the Bulls crush their local teams.  In this context, Mayweather's popularity can be comprehended.  He has established a rarefied level of excellence, and the public has responded accordingly. 

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State of SNB

I thought I would take the sixth-month anniversary of the blog to tell you a little bit more about the direction of Saturday Night Boxing as well as some additional thoughts on what has already transpired.  First off, the popularity of Saturday Night Boxing has far exceeded my expectations.  With over 13,000 fans on Facebook from 104 countries and territories, the reach and scope of the blog's following continue to amaze me.

The mission of Saturday Night Boxing is simple; it's stated in the tag line – the big fights, the best fighters and the colorful characters in the world of boxing.  But what does that mean?  For one, I try to keep the posts and topics centered around major fighters and boxing figures.  It is not my goal to impress anyone by talking about some 6-0 club fighter who no one has ever heard of or seen.  I have no urge to cater to some upper 1% of the boxing intelligentsia.  And frankly, I don't want to compete in that game.  There are other places to learn about the Latvian boxing program, the amateur trainer of the Peruvian boxing team or the anonymous fighters trolling around the southeastern United States. 

I have come around on one topic.  In A More Formal Introduction, I stated that I wasn't interested in doing previews for big fights: I was wrong.  I have found great satisfaction in doing the "Four Scenarios" previews prior to big fights.  What I most objected to was a silly prediction without any support or meat.  Telling you that I think Manny Pacquiao will beat Juan Manuel Marquez by a decision doesn't really further the discussion all that much. 

In journalism, all articles answer six key questions – the "5 W's and the H."  Those letters correspond to “who,” “what,” “when,” “where,” “why” and “how.”  For me, the goal of this site and why I like the Four Scenarios previews are to provide the "why" and the "how."  I believe that the other "W's" have been covered very well by traditional boxing reporters, but, the "why" and the "how" are woefully underrepresented.  How many boxing articles have you read that really attempt to explain how Floyd Mayweather shut down Shane Mosley or why David Haye was unable to get close to Wladimir Klitschko?  These are the aspects of boxing that fascinate me.  

For the preview pieces, it's not enough for me to say that Carl Froch is going to beat Glen Johnson.  I want to get into what tactics and strategy Froch will use to overcome his opponent.  What weaknesses can he exploit?  What are his limitations?  How good is his corner at making adjustments?  Were there any similar opponents or styles that troubled Froch or Johnson in the past?

It is my goal to come up with unique or different perspective on some of the major figures and events in boxing.  I don't want to do a write-up of the fights like you can get from 20 writers.  I want to share my impressions of the "how" and the "why."  

Additionally, I get a kick out of the somewhat peripheral figures in boxing.  You'll notice that I write frequently about trainers and promoters and boxing networks.  I love all that stuff.  I couldn't imagine the sport without people like Naazim Richardson, Bob Arum or Larry Merchant.  When I can, I'll highlight some under-the-radar boxing figures who play a prominent role in the sport, such as Ken Condon, the boxing czar in Atlantic City, or Steve Smoger, one of the best referees in the business.  

Also, it is my goal to keep this site as international as I possibly can.  Yes, I live in America and have access to more American fight cards than international ones.  However, I know that there are major fights that happen all around the world.  I was happy to write about the Marquez-Concepcion fight in Panama, the DeGale-Groves card in England and the Klitschko-Haye fight in Germany.  Additionally, I have written features on boxers from Germany, Russia, the Ukraine, England, Scotland, Ireland, Indonesia, the Philippines, Australia, Argentina, Cuba, Puerto Rico, Canada and Mexico.  Great boxers and memorable fights can come from anywhere.

I understand that not everything I'm going to write will dazzle you with profound insight or originality.  There are certainly a few posts of mine that I would love to rework if I could.  But I will keep trying to get better.  I tend to write when I feel like I have something significant to say.  If I lose readership by not posting enough, that is the trade-off that I make and I feel comfortable with that reality.   

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And now for some housekeeping notes.  You will notice that I often publish posts in an irregular schedule.  One suggestion in staying current on the updated posts is to follow Saturday Night Boxing by email.  On the top right of the blog you will see the "Follow SNB by Email" heading.  Below that, you will see a white space where you can submit your email address.  All emails are sent out around 4:15 in the morning eastern standard time (not my choice for that bizarre time).  The posts sent by email display wonderfully on a mobile device or a work station/computer.  The one drawback is the delay.  If I put a post up at noon, you will not receive an email for another 16 hours or so.  

For the privacy people (count me in that category), I will not have any access to your email address or any other personal information.  The emails are sent through a secure system called Feedburner, which Blogger (owned by Google) uses as its encrypted third-party email vendor.  I'm not sure that anything is 100% safe in this world, but I use the Feedburner system and have had no problems, no spam and no complications.

For those who have arrived at the blog through search engines, referrals or direct traffic, Saturday Night Boxing has a Facebook page at www.facebook.com/saturdaynightboxing.  It is there where I post new SNB pieces as well as other boxing-related opinions and conversation topics.  The give-and-take on the Facebook page has been a chief highlight of the last six months.  There are some wonderfully knowledgeable people that contribute to the SNB page, and we've had some great discussions.  I always look forward to hearing from the regulars and encourage new fans to post their thoughts and opinions.

I only have two rules on the Facebook page.  The first one is "no cursing."  Over 30% of my audience is under 18 and it's very important for me to keep this site family-friendly.  I believe that boxing really needs to grow the sport with younger audiences; I don't want to alarm parents or youngsters with the content of this site.  I want new people to enjoy boxing, to give their opinions and to form connections to the sport.  People should feel comfortable with SNB, whether they are 14 or 40, or whether they are from Nairobi, New Delhi or New York.  

Also, as a second rule, I don't allow people to post any professional advertisements on the Facebook page.  We get bombarded enough in our lives with various advertisements.  If you are going to post, make it genuine, don't sell us.  This is a place for discussion.  

SNB can also be found on Twitter – @snboxing.   Here I will make some pithy observations or shorter points.  Occasionally I will argue or agree with some of the other boxing writers/opinion makers out there.   I also do live tweeting during major fight cards.  Additionally, you can access all new posts from Twitter.  

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I encourage you to send me your feedback/questions/ideas to the Saturday Night Boxing email address at saturdaynightboxing@hotmail.com.  Ideally, I wanted to respond to specific questions and points through mailbag-style posts, however, it seems that the Facebook page or the "Discussions" tab on the Facebook page have sufficed for the time being.  However, if you want to send something in a more long-form manner or if you have an interesting boxing question/opinion, feel free to send me an email.

It is my goal to update the blog at least three times a week.  Some weeks will be more.  During the slow seasons (such as August), it may be less.  If you have an interesting boxer/fight angle that you would like to have covered, let me know about it and I will strongly consider your feedback.

I apologize if this post was a little too self-indulgent.  However, I do feel it is important to update the SNB audience from time to time regarding my intentions and goals for Saturday Night Boxing.  Again, thank you so much for your support and let's keep this thing going.

Adam

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Profiling the Rising Junior Middleweights

The junior middleweight division features a diverse collection of emerging fighters.  This post will profile these rising boxers, all of whom are ranked in the top 15 of the division.  The fighters listed here are all under 30 and have just started to reach their respective peaks over the last year. 

Boxer: Saul Alvarez

Age: 21

Record: 37-0-1 (27 KOs)

Country: Mexico

Last Fight: 12th round TKO against Ryan Rhodes

Hardware: WBC Title

Ultimate Ceiling: Miguel Cotto with more fluid combinations

SNB Codename: Golden Boy's Gold

Scouting Report: Saul Alvarez has quickly become one of the emerging stars of boxing.  Featuring a full arsenal of punches and fluid combinations, Alvarez is an offensive force and has a ring IQ that belies his age.  He'll throw unique four and five-punch combinations, many of which start with lead uppercuts from the outside.  Alvarez likes space to punch.  His hand speed and foot speed are only average.  His chin has yet to be tested against elite opponents.  He also may be vulnerable to movers.

Boxer: Erislandy Lara

Age: 28

Record: 15-1-1 (10 KOs)

Country: USA by way of Cuba

Last Fight: Decision loss to Paul Williams (he was robbed by the judges)

Hardware: N/A

Ultimate Ceiling: Joel Casamayor with more power and less defense

SNB Codename: The Counterpuncher

Scouting Report: Lara, the former amateur world champion who defected from Cuba, has quickly ascended to the top of the division in fewer than 20 professional fights.  Lara has had an interesting 2011.  He undertrained against Carlos Molina and was lucky to escape with a draw.  He also boxed beautifully against Paul Williams in a disputed loss.  Lara features very accurate counterpunching and possesses one-punch knockout power.  However, he can be outworked and does not always show urgency in the ring.

Boxer: Vanes Martirosyan

Age: 25

Record: 30-0 (19 KOs)

Country: USA by way of Armenia

Last Fight: 7th round TKO against Saul Roman

Hardware: N/A

Ultimate Ceiling: A smaller Calvin Brock?

SNB Codename: The Forgotten

Scouting Report: Even though he was a 2004 U.S. Olympian and has Freddie Roach in his corner, Martirosyan's profile is relatively low in the sport.  His career has progressed very slowly.  Martirosyan is a solid fighter who doesn't necessarily do one thing well, or have obvious weaknesses.  He has a nice jab and a solid right hand, but he lacks a "wow" punch.  His defense is secure although not impenetrable.  He may never make it out of the B+/A- range.

Boxer: Carlos Molina

Age: 28

Record: 19-4-2 (6 KOs)

Country: USA by way of Mexico

Last Fight: Decision victory over Kermit Cintron

Hardware: N/A

Ultimate Ceiling: An orthodox Carlos Quintana

SNB Codename: The Spoiler

Scouting Report: Every few years, an unknown boxer establishes himself among the best in a division with a series of unexpected victories.  In the last decade, it has happened with Carlos Quintana and Carlos Baldomir (perhaps to a lesser extent with Glen Johnson).  Molina has had a similar type of year by drawing with Erislandy Lara in a fight that he deserved to win and by defeating Kermit Cintron.  Molina features nothing extraordinary.  He has a sneaky right hand which finds its mark often.  He also is comfortable leading with his left hook.  However, he has no real power.  Molina shows up in shape and ready to give a professional effort.  He tries to win by outworking his opponents.  Elite fighters should defeat him, either with their power or speed.  However, if overlooked, Molina can continue to rack up victories.

Boxer: Austin Trout

Age:  25

Record: 23-0 (13 KOs)

Country: USA

Last Fight: Decision victory over David Lopez

Hardware: WBA Title

Ultimate Ceiling: Andre Dirrell with less running

SNB Codename: The Technician

Scouting Report:  For a more complete scouting report on Austin Trout, click here.  Trout has a good amateur background and excellent boxing fundamentals.  However, promotional problems, soft matchmaking and a lack of television exposure have created an anonymous champion.  Trout boxes very well, using jabs, hooks and uppercuts to win battles in the pocket.  Although he wins his fights on pure boxing ability, he is not a runner.  He throws very fluid combinations and has a tight defense.  As the level of his competition increases, it will be interesting to see whether he can hold up to a first-class pressure fighter.  His chin is also untested.

Boxer: Pawel Wolak

Age: 29

Record: 29-1-1 (19 KOs)

Country: USA by way of Poland 

Last Fight: Draw with Delvin Rodriguez

Hardware: N/A

Ultimate Ceiling: A less dynamic Ricky Hatton

SNB Codename: The Mugger

Scouting Report: Wolak likes to close the distance to his opponents as much as possible.  He’s a classic pressure fighter, firing and receiving shots at close range.  Wolak's defense is poor but his chin is spectacular.  Wolak, at times, stifles his right hand and left hook by getting too close to his opponents.  He likes to wear boxers down with physicality and brute force.  Wolak's having a good year, as he upset Yuri Forman and scored a draw against Delvin Rodriguez in one of the best fights of the year.  He is vulnerable against movers and pot-shotters.

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Which Dog Will Bite--Marquez or Ortiz?

Let me start off by saying that I don't bet on boxing.  With that disclaimer out of the way, I must say that I do periodically check boxing odds on various websites.   Sometimes the betting lines provide useful information about how professional bookmakers view particular fights, and how the gambling community reacts to the odds, reflected by movement in the betting lines.  In other cases, the odds are garbage, artificially propped up to minimize or mitigate a betting entity's potential loss on a popular fighter.  However, on a number of occasions, I have found that the betting lines are more prescient regarding the eventual outcome of a fight than those opinions of professional prognosticators.

For the two biggest fights of the fall, Juan Manuel Marquez and Victor Ortiz are massive underdogs in their respective matchups against Manny Pacquiao and Floyd Mayweather, Jr.  Marquez has been a consistent 8-1 underdog since the lines were posted.  The Mayweather-Ortiz line has shifted some over the last month.  Initially, Ortiz was an 8-1 underdog; he is now a 6.5 or 7-1 dog.  Even though both Marquez and Ortiz are quality opponents, these lines show enormous respect and confidence in the skills and accomplishments of Pacquiao and Mayweather.

At first glance, the Pacquiao-Marquez line is shocking.  Marquez fought two closely contested battles with Pacquiao.  He earned a draw in 2004 and lost a split decision in 2008.  Neither of those decisions was unjust; they reflected the tight nature of the two fights.  

Nevertheless, professional bookmakers are not idiots.  Over the last few years, Marquez has displayed signs of slippage, which give odds makers pause when considering his ability to beat Pacquiao at welterweight.  For one, the only time that Marquez ever fought at the 147-pound limit, he was destroyed by Mayweather.  Mayweather was able to knock him down and Marquez didn't respond well to his opponent's power, even though Mayweather is only an average puncher at welterweight.  Along those lines, Marquez was unable to hurt Mayweather at any point during their fight.

(For the record, Mayweather came into the fight overweight and paid a significant penalty to Marquez.  However, the strategy worked in that Mayweather's weight and power advantage affected Marquez significantly throughout their fight.) 

Meanwhile, Pacquiao's power has moved up with him to the 147-lb division.  Pacquiao has caused significant physical and/or career damage to almost all he has faced at welterweight.  In addition, Pacquiao has already knocked Marquez down four times during their two fights.  If Marquez couldn't take Mayweather's power at 147, how will he respond to Pacquiao's?  If Pacquiao could drop Marquez with relative ease at featherweight and junior lightweight, how will Marquez be able to withstand the welterweight version of Pacquiao, who, in this meeting, will have at least 15 additional pounds behind his shots?

It is true that Marquez countered Pacquiao wonderfully in their two fights.  However, Marquez had to eat a lot of shots to get his opportunities, and that was when he was much more mobile and used the ring better.  As he has aged, his reflexes have slowed down and he is easier to hit.  Aggressive brawlers – but not elite talents – like  Juan Diaz and Michael Katsidis have been able to hurt Marquez in recent fights.  Yes, Marquez eventually would prevail in those matchups, but he took real punishment.  Neither Diaz nor Katsidis had the same kind of power that Pacquiao possesses.

Marquez will be able to hit Pacquiao and, psychologically, he won't be afraid getting into the ring.  But what else does Marquez have going for him?  Pacquiao is a better fighter now than he was in 2008.  His defense has improved.  He also features a more varied offensive attack, with his right hook as the most prominent example. 

So adding it all up, Marquez should be a sizable underdog.  How is he going to win seven rounds against Pacquiao?  He can't put Pacquiao on the canvas, he is easier to hit than he used to be and his chin and legs aren't getting any better?  Should he be a 4-1 dog?  A 6-1 dog?  An 8-1?  I don't know what that exact number should be, but I don't see a clear path for him to win the fight.  

The Mayweather-Ortiz fight seems to be more dynamic.  This battle has all sorts of potential outcomes.  Ortiz's power is frightening; so is his chin.  Here's a fact that you may not know: with the exception of a first-round technical draw which was stopped because of a head butt, Ortiz has knocked down every one of his opponents – even  in his losses.  Additionally, Mayweather has had trouble with some southpaws, most notably Demarcus Corley and Zab Judah.  

With Ortiz's power, he cannot be counted out of any fight.  Also, if Ortiz can hurt Mayweather, he has good finishing instincts (with the exception of the Lamont Peterson fight).

However, Ortiz's chin can be cracked.  Maidana and Berto both dropped him twice.  With Mayweather's pinpoint accuracy and Ortiz's propensity for charging in at his opponents, Ortiz may be a sitting duck for Mayweather's perfectly placed left hook.  In addition, Ortiz really only knows one way to fight.  He wouldn't be able to pick Mayweather off from the outside.  If Mayweather-Ortiz turns into a boxing match, Ortiz will lose handedly. 

The combination of Ortiz's power and his questionable chin creates a wide range of possible outcomes for this matchup.  Nevertheless, Ortiz's power will give him a shot at unseating one of the top-two fighters in the world. 

Pacquiao-Marquez features all sorts of juicy storylines and riveting history, but the odds makers have this fight nailed.  Although Marquez has the Hall of Fame credentials and the close fights with Pacquiao in the past, he doesn't have the speed, the power and, most likely, the chin to secure the victory.   

The live dog in the fall mega-fights is Ortiz.  There are many scenarios in which Mayweather could cruise to a victory or even knock him out, but Ortiz has knocked down 32 opponents in 33 fights; his power gives him a real chance to win against any welterweight.  The bookmakers have undersold Ortiz in this fight, or are hedging themselves against sizable bets in favor of Mayweather.  There's no question that Mayweather should be a favorite, and a sizable one.  But 7-1 gives slight odds to a man who can't help but put his opponents on the canvas 

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