Friday, May 18, 2012

Tarver's Time To Make Up For Lost Time

At 43, Antonio Tarver still remains relevant in boxing. That in it of itself is something of a feat. 43 is an age for trainers or commentators (Tarver's more regular gig, on Showtime), not for active fighters. But activity and Antonio Tarver do not necessarily mix. Verbally, Tarver has been one of the most loquacious and omnipresent fighters in the sport, crashing press conferences, making accusations of others, goading potential opponents and ruling the new social media, such as Twitter. However, Tarver's activity often falls short of actually appearing in the ring. In the nine years since Tarver won his first title, he has fought only 13 times – a paltry number even in modern boxing.

Tarver has never officially retired throughout his career but he has taken several long hiatuses away from the ring. At various points over the last five years, the accepted wisdom was that he was finished as a world-class fighter, and, quite frankly, that may be still be the case.

Last year's win over an aging Danny Green was unexpected, but perhaps not all that meaningful. Green had captured and defended a minor belt against ancient fighters and those who were unfit to appear on the world-class level. Tarver was supposed to be next on the list, but he bucked the odds and knocked Green out. The win was convincing, although his opponent was much closer to his way out of boxing than he was to the prime of his career.

Tarver arrived late to boxing (he had previous personal and substance abuse problems prior to his full-time commitment to the sport). He became one of America's top amateur talents in the mid '90s, but he was already in his late 20s by the time he won the bronze medal in the 1996 Olympics.

He ascended the prospect ladder very quickly as a professional. In just his 16th pro fight, he faced Eric Harding in a title eliminator. In a pattern that would establish itself throughout his career, he lost to a fighter who was a large step up in class. He would subsequently defeat him five fights later.

Once Tarver reached the world-class level, his record became spotty. He lost five times to top fighters, (Roy Jones, Bernard Hopkins, Glen Johnson and twice to Chad Dawson). Most famously, he was able to avenge his loss to Jones with a second-round TKO, where he landed one of the perfect counter left hands in the history of the sport.

Tarver has often faced problems with motivation. He lost fights against Hopkins and Johnson in which he was heavily favored. (Again, he would defeat Johnson in a rematch.) He went to Hollywood after his second win against Jones to play Rocky Balboa's nemesis in the franchise's last installment. Ballooning well into heavyweight territory, he looked lifeless and listless when he finally returned to active boxing against Hopkins.

Instead of accepting his wipeout defeat to Hopkins, he blamed his loss on external forces, claiming he was poisoned; the two fighters still have a running feud to this day. Steamed that he never got a rematch with Hopkins, Tarver ironically refused to offer Johnson a third fight, which would have determined the ultimate victor in that series.

Tarver was one of the first big fighters to align himself with Al Haymon, one of boxing's most powerful managers or advisors (his official role can sometimes vary based on the fighter). For Haymon's prized, veteran boxers, he has stressed a strict adherence to never fighting "dark" – refusing to fight without being on premium TV. In Haymon's mind, if a boxer fights dark, he dilutes his value. Instead of staying active, Haymon's boxers patiently wait for the opportunity for a premium slot on U.S. cable. If a fighter is not a top priority for the American boxing networks, those waits can become quite lengthy. Tarver waited a year to get back on TV after the Hopkins defeat. After his second loss to Dawson, he waited 17 months. You can bet that Tarver wasn't training religiously in the gym during these absences.

In 2010, Tarver fought once at heavyweight and then waited nine more months to take on Green at cruiserweight (a rare foray without U.S. television backing). He faces Lateef Kayode at cruiserweight next month – this time with a wait of almost 11 months. As usual, the fight will be on a U.S. premium cable outlet (Showtime), and he is expected to win against the crude but heavy-handed banger.

In evaluating Tarver's career, it's impossible to separate the results from paths not taken by the fighter. Tarver has only fought 35 times in his 15-year career (Jones appeared 52 times in his first 15 years, Hopkins – 46 times). When Tarver did get into the ring, he sometimes lacked the professionalism to come into fights in top shape. In addition, his reputation for performing well in rematches represents a tacit admission that he was underprepared or inadequately motivated for these first bouts against top opponents. 

Unfortunately, Tarver's inactivity led to a dulling of his skills and a loss of his natural athleticism. Today, he is a stationary fighter and he rarely features the incisive lateral movement and angles which were hallmarks of his earlier career. Some of this can be attributed to the natural aging process; but even as far back as the Hopkins fight six years ago, he looked like he was trying to move in quicksand.

Similar to a long line of Haymon-advised fighters, Tarver reached the mountaintop, but he was unable to maintain his lofty position in boxing. Due to ring rust and his own often cavalier attitude to the sport, he never was a dominant champion, despite having significant power, boxing skills and athletic talent.

Tarver is known for being a brash, boastful fighter but there are moments where he can be very introspective about the path of his career. Tarver realizes that this run is his last opportunity to make his mark in the sport. His grudge about being an underappreciated fighter, especially when compared to Jones and Hopkins, still permeates his essence; his repeated flare-ups with these legends are less about their successes than his own shortcomings, professionally or psychologically.   

In quieter moments, I wonder if he regrets some of the decisions in his career: the contentment of waiting around for big paydays, the time spent out of the gym and the underestimation of some of his opponents. In Tarver's mind, he is a Hall of Fame fighter, but his record is full of missteps and losses to the elites.

His recent opponents have been second-rate fighters, father time and the memories of opportunities missed. What would he have become if he had been a more dedicated fighter? Could he have taken down Jones or Johnson in his first battles with them had he been more active in the gym. And what explains his perfunctory efforts against Dawson?

Tarver's legacy is not yet complete and perhaps in his final run he can do something spectacular to make boxing observers remember his unique blend of talents. However, if his career ended right now, he would certainly be recorded in the annals of boxing as one of the many with potential unfulfilled, rather than a fighter who got the best out of his abilities.  

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Friday, May 11, 2012

Musings on Canelo and Huck

Saul "Canelo" Alvarez has boxed on the international scene for two years. He has fought eight times since his American debut against Jose Cotto and he has received coveted slots headlining HBO broadcasts and serving as the chief support to two of Floyd Mayweather's pay-per-view events.

A look at the list of his recently vanquished foes reveals some impressive names, but ones that did not necessarily represent tough challenges. Most of these opponents were fighters on the downsides of good careers and/or ones who had distinguished themselves in other weight classes. His highest-profile win was last weekend's victory against an ancient Shane Mosley. That fight reinforced a pattern of Alvarez defeating former champions from smaller weight classes, including Kermit Cintron, Lovemore Ndou and Carlos Baldomir. His other victories were against B-listers such as Ryan Rhodes, Alfonso Gomez and Matthew Hatton.

To date, his competition has not been all that stiff and he has not yet fought some of the more interesting names at junior middleweight (Erislandy Lara, James Kirkland, and Austin Trout). Golden Boy has wisely ignored Alvarez's championship belt and has  used these early title fights for his further development. In essence, they have treated Alvarez more like a regular 21-year-old prospect, and not as an established titleholder. HBO has been a steady underwriter of Alvarez's ascent in the sport (and because Canelo draws fine TV ratings, they should be), but at a certain point, all parties involved want the training wheels to come off and see what the kid really has.

To project Alvarez's future in the sport, it's important to affirm what we have learned about him over the last two years.  He clearly is a great combination puncher. His use of uppercuts from the outside to start combinations is a rarity in the sport. He relies far more on power punches than his jab. He has excellent punch technique and accuracy. His ring generalship is superb. It's amazing to see a 21-year-old control the action and pacing of a fight the way in which he does. So far, he has not let big crowds, the limelight or his opponents dictate the way in which he fights.

Canelo does have some areas for improvement. He doesn't fight three minutes a round and conceivably can be outworked by a good jabber (Gomez had some success in this area). His defense is merely adequate. He doesn't feature a lot of head movement and Cotto, Gomez and Cintron were able to land some hard shots on him. Alvarez's power is good, but it's not exceptional. He's less of a one-punch knockout artist than a boxer who gets stoppages because of an accumulation of punishment from his accurate shots.

The rumored plan floated by Golden Boy is to match Canelo next with Kirkland. That fight should be a shootout and at the very least it will tell us about Alvarez's chin and his ability to survive a pressure fighter. I favor Alvarez's clean punching in that fight. If feather-fisted Carlos Molina was able to damage Kirkland, Alvarez should be able to do the same. However, Alvarez doesn't feature the lateral movement of someone like Molina. It will be fascinating to see if Alvarez can best Kirkland without leaving the pocket.

Ultimately, Canelo Alvarez is no normal 21-year old. His ring maturity and technique belie his age. However, I get the sneaking suspicion that his road to boxing's elite will be bumpy. His shortcomings (especially his work rate) are real and he's yet to face a true puncher at junior middleweight.

Nevertheless, as boxing observers, we should be in for a fun ride. Canelo has a rare gift of composure and maturity during big moments in the ring. He also has a natural affinity for the spotlight. Even with a loss or two, he will remain in demand as one of the true attractions in boxing.
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Marco Huck finds himself in a truly unique situation. Earlier in the year, the longtime cruiserweight champion moved up to heavyweight and fought on virtually even terms against Alexander Povetkin, a top-10 boxer in the sport's glamor division. Throughout the fight, Huck landed the harder shots and proved he had the ability and chin to stay at heavyweight. He lost a very close fight and in an interesting twist, his promoter and manager, Sauerland Event (in Germany, one entity can wear both hats), convinced him to drop back to cruiserweight to defend his title.

Huck initially wanted to stay at heavyweight but Sauerland's financial guarantee was enough for the fighter to return to his old division. Needless to say, Huck, who had previously defended his title five times, only earned a draw against Ola Afolabi last weekend. The fight was a rematch of a thin decision victory for Huck in 2009. Huck-Afolabi II was an outright war, with Afolabi outworking Huck in the opening rounds and Huck coming on strong with massive power shots in the fight's second half. The 12th round featured unbelievable action from both fighters and was easily a round-of-the-year candidate.

Now the most interesting question is where Huck goes from here. One important facet of the Afolabi fight, which was not reported heavily, was that Huck had to drop 30 pounds to make the cruiserweight limit. Often, fighters who move down significantly in weight lose their power and energy (e.g. Roy Jones, Oscar de la Hoya). Through that prism, it's remarkable how effective Huck was against Afolabi. He was the fresher fighter and the one who imposed his will as the bout progressed.

Despite Huck's crowd-pleasing effort on Saturday, I still think that the proper move for him is to return to heavyweight. Afolabi illustrated how Huck could be particularly vulnerable in that division. Huck does not have a high punch output and it often takes him a few rounds to find his way into a fight (this also happened against Povetkin). Huck will fare much better against fighters who throw 40 punches a round, instead of those who throw 60 or more. In short, the slower pace of heavyweight action suits Huck's style better.

In addition, Huck was a real heavyweight against Povetkin, not a cruiserweight masquerading as one. Against Povetkin, he landed the harder shots and his chin held up fine. Also, his body at 229 wasn't soft and he moved well at the higher weight.  Huck won't beat a Klitschko, but he will be able to handle himself against the rest of the division.

It will be interesting to see how supportive Sauerland is of Huck's desire to go back to heavyweight. They control most of the top cruiserweights in the division and have built up Huck into one of the big attractions in Germany. At heavyweight, the best fighters are from all over the world and Huck will not be the house fighter in those contests.

Understandably, Sauerland is reluctant to lose one of its guaranteed cash cows who fills arenas and generates excellent TV ratings. That risk is most likely one that they are not keen on taking. However, what they might not realize is that there is significant risk for Huck should he stay at cruiserweight. He very well might physically be too big for the division and Afolabi already demonstrated Huck's vulnerabilities against athletic boxers who feature high punch outputs.  

Ultimately, I think the play is for Huck to go to heavyweight. His power punches and fighting spirit will be a welcome addition to the division. He may not win all his fights but he will earn good money. Also, his style is extremely TV friendly and he has the real possibility of expanding his existing fanbase beyond central Europe. It will be interesting to see what Huck's next moves will be, but either way, he has quickly become one of the better crowd-pleasing fighters in the sport.

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Tuesday, May 8, 2012

Opinions and Observations: Mayweather-Cotto

The great ones know that they can always improve. Whether it's Michael Jordan adding a turnaround jumper or Cal Ripken changing his swing, the best are not satisfied on their exalted pedestals. They have an almost pathological desire to stay on top. As elite athletes age and their bodies become less forgiving, the mind, pride and desire play more prominent roles in achieving and maintaining excellence.

Miguel Cotto somehow took away Floyd Mayweather's best two punches this weekend – the jab and the straight right hand – yet he still lost the fight. Cotto was competitive throughout the bout, but couldn't find a way to turn the fight in his favor. Mayweather was just a few small steps ahead. This was like second-dynasty Michael Jordan, where Mayweather had just enough skill and guile to get by Cotto, who played the role of the Utah Jazz. It was a clear victory, but it wasn't easy. The great ones find a way.

Mayweather won the early rounds in the judges' eyes (and on my card), but he was barely topping his opponent, the one who was supposed to have a leaky defense and slow hand speed. It was shocking to see Mayweather unable to land his jab or right hand with his typical pinpoint accuracy.

Suddenly, in the fourth round, Mayweather started connecting with looping right-hand shots which landed on Cotto's left ear. It was a punch which I had never seen Mayweather throw previously. Philosophically, this punch seemed counter to everything that Mayweather was about – it was wide, instead of compact, and it left him open to be countered. When Mayweather threw this right hand, his whole right side was exposed for Cotto's punishing left hook. Yet he threw it; and it landed.

After the fight, Mayweather was asked about the looping right hand. He said that he was watching Cotto's bout against Shane Mosley, where Mosley landed that same punch throughout the fight – so Mayweather decided to incorporate it into his arsenal.

I think that this moment revealed a lot about Mayweather as a fighter. As good as he has been throughout his career, he's still looking for ways to get better. Essentially, it wasn't beneath him to crib a punch from a fighter whom he had previously dominated; it was a way to help him win.

Cotto's technique has improved substantially under Pedro Diaz. Conventional wisdom said that Mayweather would win a jabbing war, counter Cotto's right hand with the left hook and land his straight right between Cotto's high guard. But Cotto was picking off or avoiding those punches almost the whole night. He kept his left glove up high to ward off Mayweather's right hand. He used his reach advantage to stay out of the way of Mayweather's jab. His own jab was tight and he quickly returned it to a defensive position after throwing it. His right hands were short and he didn't reach with his left hook. His balance was excellent.

After a competitive first few rounds, Cotto started to land his jab frequently in the center of the ring. This in it of itself was a shocking development. Cotto, known as having a solid – but not spectacular – jab, was never supposed to land that punch on such a defensive wizard. But there he was, hitting Mayweather with the stick and busting him up.

For whatever reason, Cotto abandoned that plan after the sixth round. Perhaps he, or his corner, realized his success was fool's gold. Maybe it was. Maybe the game plan was to win the fight along the ropes. Perhaps Cotto was unwilling to make the same type of adjustments during the fight that Mayweather was.

Throughout most of the match, Cotto attacked Mayweather along the ropes. This led to a lot of "ooh aah" moments for the crowd, but most of his forays were examples of ineffective aggression. Of the five or six punches he would throw along the ropes, perhaps one squeaked by cleanly.

Cotto's one unadulterated round of success along the ropes was the 8th, where he teed off on Mayweather's body with right and left hooks. This was the Cotto that his supporters expected to see. It's not that Cotto didn't try throughout the fight, but Mayweather's defensive skills stymied most of his efforts along the ropes.

Having landed a few earlier in the fight, Mayweather featured his uppercuts in the later rounds. These punches cemented his victory. He countered with a single shot or started combinations with them, like left uppercut-straight right hand-left hook or right uppercut-left hook-straight right hand. His uppercuts were short and powerful, landing consistently on Cotto's chin. In the 12th round, he connected with a right uppercut that almost knocked Cotto out cold.
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Don't let the wide (but accurate) decision obfuscate the reality of the fight; this was not the bout that Mayweather had signed up for. Sure, many thought that Mayweather would win a comfortable decision. 117-111 or 118-110 sounded very likely before the fight started, but this was not the typical Mayweather match whatsoever.

Mayweather often starts deliberately, dissecting his opponents and taking away their best weapons. As the rounds progress, he scores with single power shots and gradually incorporates his entire arsenal. He eventually lands at will. The last few rounds of his fights are usually mere academic exercises.

That is certainly not what happened on Saturday. Mayweather won the fight only because he edged out Cotto in a lot of close rounds. Mayweather didn't land with his customary precision and only in the 12th could it be said that he dominated the fight. He kept his jab safely by his side as the match progressed and his straight right hand only landed sporadically. Yes, he exhibited defensive mastery throughout the fight and displayed the intelligence, athleticism and skills that make him a great boxer, but it wasn't enough to truly outclass Cotto until the final few moments.

In short, Mayweather was unable to take away Cotto's will. Cotto thought he was in the fight throughout the entire 12 rounds. Mayweather is supposed to dissuade opponents from that kind of ambitious thinking.

Similar to one of the judges, I scored the fight 118-110, but it was not a wipeout victory like those against Mosley or Juan Manuel Marquez. To my eyes, there were small edges here and there which swung rounds in Mayweather's favor. He had to work hard for this victory.

True, Mayweather isn't as mobile as he used to be, but credit for the competitive nature of this fight belongs to Cotto. His conditioning was excellent. He demonstrated new defensive prowess. He fought within himself and was determined to pull out a victory. This Cotto was far superior to the weight-drained, self-trained fighter who faced Manny Pacquiao.

Ultimately, the great ones adapt. In addition, through skills, intelligence and working at their craft, they have more ways of winning than their opponents. Mayweather was able to secure a victory with his left and right uppercut – perhaps his 4th and 5th best punches – and a looping right hand, which wasn't even in his arsenal until this fight. (Think about how many recent champions don't even have three good punches.)

Cotto fought with spirit and determination but Mayweather made the crucial adjustments. Cotto was able to neutralize Mayweather's speed and take away some of his best weapons; however, he still came up short. For Mayweather, it wasn't his prettiest effort. He may not have been at his sharpest but Saturday's fight showed him at his most intelligent and versatile. This is one tough fighter to beat.

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Friday, May 4, 2012

Mayweather-Cotto: Keys to the Fight

The first mega-fight of 2012 arrives this weekend, with multi-divisional champions Floyd Mayweather and Miguel Cotto squaring off in Las Vegas. Read below for my keys to the fight. My official prediction will be at the end of the article.

1. Can Cotto land enough?
To me, this is the most fundamental question of the fight. No one denies that Cotto has real power; he may be the most powerful fighter that Mayweather has faced to date. However, what will Cotto land? His jab can get lazy and it is a punch that can be countered. His straight right hand can be sharp but someone with Mayweather's defensive skills can elude it or stymie its effectiveness.

Essentially, the key punch of the fight for Cotto – the one that could keep Mayweather honest – is his left hook to the body. To land that, Cotto will have to close the distance and eat some of Mayweather's pinpoint counter shots. Cotto must not let Mayweather's incoming volleys dissuade him from coming forward. Cotto has to apply pressure and connect with his left hook; it's his best shot to win. Without consistently landing that punch, which can be absolutely devastating, I don't see how Cotto stays competitive. In addition, Cotto, who has featured his left hook only intermittently in past fights, must throw it with regularity.  

2. When will Mayweather get started?
In past fights against active punchers such as Oscar de la Hoya and Zab Judah, Mayweather has started slowly. He took a few rounds to figure out openings against these opponents. More recently, especially in the Shane Mosley and Victor Ortiz bouts, Mayweather pressed the action early in the fight, establishing his straight right hands. (He is also older and doesn't move around the ring as much as he did earlier in his career.) Against Cotto, a fighter whose power he respects, Mayweather will most likely start the bout cautiously. If he makes that decision, will it come back to haunt him?

3. Can Cotto hurt Mayweather?
Although Mayweather is a defensive marvel, he can be hit. Having taken big shots from DeMarcus Corley, Mosley and Judah, Mayweather has shown that he has a good chin. However, those instances forced Mayweather to shift his attention to defense.

Cotto, who does pack quite a bit of thunder, needs to land something big on Mayweather, preferably early. Mayweather has demonstrated that he can recover from big shots, but his instincts are not necessarily to fight his way out of danger. More likely, he'll hold and delay until his legs return. Cotto must seize these opportunities to inflict the maximum amount of damage, putting rounds in the bank and giving himself the opportunity to swing the fight in his favor.

4. Will Cotto's skin hold up?
Cotto has been prone to cuts, especially in past fights against Antonio Margarito and Manny Pacquiao. Although he was cut-free in the rematch against Margarito, Cotto's skin will face a stern test this weekend. The combination of Mayweather's sublime punch placement and his deployment of elbows and forearms could open up cuts on Cotto. Cotto's cutman could play a central role in the fight. With Mayweather's intelligence, if he sees a cut, he'll go after it all fight. Because of his propensity to cut, Cotto must work hard in ever frame. He has to win the 50/50 rounds.

5. Will Mayweather go for the jugular?
Mayweather could have a much greater knockout percentage than he currently does. He has carried fighters in the past, from Mosley to Juan Manuel Marquez. With a style predicated on risk minimization, Mayweather gets his knockouts from perfect punch placement in opportune moments (think Ricky Hatton or Victor Ortiz). Mayweather has talked in the buildup to this fight about going for the knockout. Of course, he says a lot of things – some are more believable than others. If Mayweather has Cotto hurt, will he go for the stoppage or just box his way to a decision victory?

Prediction:
Cotto starts out active, looking to establish his jab and his straight right hand. Mayweather remains in the center of the ring, studying Cotto, looking for opportunities. Mayweather finds early success with the counter straight right hand.

As the fight progresses, it becomes obvious that Cotto won't be able to win the bout from the outside; he starts to take more chances. He tries to attack Mayweather more and attempts to back him up to the ropes. At close range, Mayweather features his counter left hook and uppercuts in addition to his straight right hand. He's able to counter quickly and sharply, pot-shotting and eluding most of Cotto's pressure.

Eventually, Mayweather's accuracy gets the better of Cotto, who starts to wear down. By the later rounds of the fight, Cotto's energy level flags as Mayweather further establishes dominance. Despite opportunities to go for the knockout, Mayweather doesn't step on the gas and Cotto makes it to the final bell.

Floyd Mayweather wins by wide unanimous decision – let’s call it 118-110, or 10 rounds to 2.

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Tuesday, May 1, 2012

SNB Rankings Update

April featured a lot of movement in the SNB Rankings. An old legend departs and a young cruiserweight debuts. With a string of solid victories, one lightweight rises, while another one exits because of a poor showing in a win. Also, a light heavyweight returns to his former perch atop the division.

Elevated: Chad Dawson Dawson was caught in the SNB Rankings purgatory. The former light heavyweight champion certainly had tons of talent but his loss to Jean Pascal showed that he was not yet an elite boxer; after that defeat, he had to work his way back to the top of the division. With wins over Adrian Diaconu and now Bernard Hopkins, Dawson has accomplished this feat. He enters the Rankings in the Fighters on the Cusp list. With a victory over another light heavyweight titleholder or an exceptional talent such as Andre Ward, Dawson will gain elite status.

Elevated: Ricky Burns After suffering two losses early in his career, Burns worked hard on his craft and eventually won a junior lightweight title in a great fight over Roman Martinez. After three defenses, he went up to lightweight and decisioned Michael Katsidis for a vacant title belt. In his last fight, he cruised to an easier-than-expected victory over Paulus Moses. He continues to improve. Burns moves up to the 10 Boxers on the Rise list.

Elevated: Yoan Pablo Hernandez Hernandez won a cruiserweight title by defeating Steve Cunningham via a technical decision in October. It was a questionable stoppage caused by cuts and a rematch was ordered. Hernandez then decisioned Cunningham in a close fight in February to cement his status as one of the top cruiserweights in boxing. A Cuban exile fighting out of Germany, Hernandez debuts on the Bubbling Under list.

Demoted: Bernard Hopkins Obviously, Hopkins has had a Hall of Fame career. However, at 47, his defeat to Chad Dawson illustrated that he no longer fights at an elite level. Although he wasn't embarrassed in the loss, he couldn't move his hands enough or sustain consistent offense against the younger fighter. Hopkins departs the SNB Elite Fighters list.

Demoted: Brandon Rios Failing to make weight has been a consistent theme for Rios, who lost his lightweight title on the scales prior to his fight against John Murray. Facing Richard Abril (a late replacement for Yuriorkis Gamboa), Rios wasn't close to making the lightweight limit and turned in a lifeless performance. That he was awarded a controversial victory should not discount that his career momentum has stalled. Rios exits the 10 Boxers on the Rise list.

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