Matchroom Should Buy Golden Boy

I. How We Got Here

In May of 2018 Matchroom Boxing and the DAZN streaming service announced an eight-year deal worth a potential billion dollars to enter the United States boxing market. A new entity was created as a result of the deal, Matchroom Boxing USA, a joint venture between Matchroom and DAZN. As part of the deal Eddie Hearn of Matchroom would be the figurehead and de facto leader of the new venture with the goal of signing and promoting top U.S.-based boxers and for them to fight on DAZN.

Just a few months after the original announcement, the initial U.S. boxing framework for DAZN changed as they entered into a long-term agreement with Golden Boy Promotions and with that deal, DAZN gained access to the number-one boxing star in North America, Saul "Canelo" Alvarez. Whereas Hearn had originally been the exclusive promoter for DAZN-based events in the U.S., now he had to compete with Golden Boy for dates on the platform. And although Hearn quickly emerged as the lead promoter on DAZN, Golden Boy was able to establish a presence on the streaming service.  

Flash forward three years later and it's safe to say that the three-pronged relationship in the U.S. between DAZN, Matchroom and Golden Boy hasn't cohered smoothly. Golden Boy has often struggled to get commitments and dates from DAZN for their non-Alvarez broadcasts (Canelo has subsequent left Golden Boy). And when they were able to get dates, they were often assigned a lesser broadcast team and the production values on their shows often trailed those that were provided for Matchroom USA's broadcasts. 

Matchroom's Eddie Hearn
Photo courtesy of Ed Mulholland

Although armed with a wave of publicity and backed by buckets of money, Hearn has only had mixed results in recruiting American talent to his stable. Throughout the last three years, his roster has included fighters such as Demetrius Andrade, Jessie Vargas, Tevin Farmer (co-promoted with DiBella Entertainment), Danny Roman (co-promoted with Thompson Boxing), Daniel Jacobs, Mikey Garcia (on a short-term deal) and Devin Haney. Hearn was able to sign or co-promote several capable fighters, but few who moved the needle in the North American boxing market.  

In 2019 Gennadiy Golovkin made a deal with DAZN and started working with Hearn. However, that relationship has yet to produce the mega-fights envisioned when the signing was announced. Hearn currently does have a working relationship with Canelo, but his stable of marketable fighters within the U.S. remains thin. 

II. The Current Scenario

Over the last three years DAZN's priorities have shifted. The service was able to survive the pandemic despite burning through loads of cash. They closed their New York offices, leaving behind just a skeleton staff. Among the layoffs in the DAZN/Matchrook USA retraction was matchmaker Eric Bottjer. Public relations guru Greg Domino left to join a position with Showtime. 

The network launched their global service in December of 2020. Earlier this year they announced a new deal with Matchroom for DAZN to become their exclusive provider of boxing content in the U.K and Ireland (the deal didn't include Anthony Joshua or Dillian Whyte). 

But what will become of DAZN's investment in America? 

After the formation of Matchroom USA, Hearn signed a number of North American amateurs, including Diego Pacheco, Austin "Ammo" Williams, Marc Castro, Nakita Ababiy, Raymond Ford and Otha Jones III. Almost all of these fighters still remain singed to the company. 

As of publication, there is not one Matchroom card officially scheduled for the USA. Certainly, there are plans in the works and there was a rumor circulating that Dillian Whyte would headline a U.S. show in August, but still, for a company that had grand designs on conquering the American market, their recent actions demonstrate a retrenchment, or at the very least a recalibration of their efforts.  

Despite losing Canelo, Golden Boy continues to promote shows in the U.S. on DAZN. With emerging stars such as Ryan Garcia and Vergil Ortiz, the company has two eminently promotable figures for the next few years. But still, dates seem hard to come by and from the outside, it still doesn't seem as if Golden Boy has the full weight of DAZN behind them. For now they seem to be tolerated, but I'm not sure if they are thought of us as a long-term strategic partner for the future of DAZN the way that Matchroom is. 

III. A Possible Solution for all Parties

There is no doubt that cracking the American boxing market is an uphill battle for a new company. Top Rank has been at it for over 40 years, Golden Boy for 20 and Al Haymon has been intimately involved in the U.S. boxing scene for 15 or so. The hardest part isn't getting network distribution or even signing fighters, it's creating an infrastructure to succeed. Professional boxing is built on relationships. It's connections with managers, trainers, talent scouts, gyms, amateur coaches and sponsors. The successful company knows that talent can come from anywhere and only by having multiple avenues available can companies acquire and cultivate a collection of fighters that can sustain a company. 

Matchroom USA has only been in the U.S. market for three years. It's unreasonable to suggest that they should have been able to build a sustainable infrastructure in just that short of a time. But still, I'm not sure that the right kind of progress has been made. Yes, Hearn has definitely established a beachhead in America, but I'm sure both he and DAZN expected more by this point. They wanted to dominate, not just be a player.  

Golden Boy's Oscar de la Hoya
Photo Courtesy of Stacey M. Snider

Despite staging several fantastic boxing cards in the U.S. over the past three years, Matchroom has not been able to assemble a roster that has many top attractions. In addition, its pipeline of prospects has been less than advertised. Jones has already lost, Ford has been spotty, Williams has had out-of-the ring difficulties. There doesn't seem to be a next wave coming. And one can't be a long-term player in the U.S. market without a developmental pipeline. It's too difficult and exceedingly expensive to have a long-term business strategy tied to poaching available veteran fighters. 

And while it's clear that DAZN has refocused its priorities on international territories and markets, it seems unlikely that the organization would abandon the U.S. market outright. There's too much money to be made for big fights. In addition, for a company that wants to have a worldwide presence in the sport, the U.S. market can't be ignored. Plus, American boxing fans have been conditioned for generations to pay hefty fees for boxing, whether for pay per views or network subscriptions. There are lots of potential paying customers in the U.S. 

There is a simple solution for the Matchroom USA conundrum: buy Golden Boy.  

For as much drama that occurs within Golden Boy, and let's face it, that organization is one of the best soap operas in the sport, their ability to identify, sign and develop talent is fantastic. With deep connections in the number-one boxing market in the U.S., Southern California, Golden Boy has been able to replenish and restock its roster despite notable defections. And for all of the out-of-the-ring difficulties that Oscar de la Hoya has faced over the past decade, he still retains a significant amount of goodwill. When he's right he's a major asset for the sport of boxing. 

For Matchroom USA to sustain a presence in America, it needs infrastructure and a developmental pipeline for success. Say what you want about Oscar or Eric Gomez, but they continue to sign talented fighters year after year. Roberto Diaz is fantastic at developing fighters. He will know which ones can fight, which ones need time, who are the good "B-sides" to sign, and who should go to the scrap pile. 

I'm sure that there would be significant cultural differences to bridge between Matchroom and Golden Boy, but there could be real areas for synergy. Although Golden Boy can sign and develop fighters, they struggle to promote more than their top couple of guys and a hot prospect or two. There are a lot of talented fighters on their roster who have not gotten the attention that they should. Matchroom's excellent creative team and their digital P.R. assets could certainly help provide additional exposure for several under-the-radar fighters. Fans need to find out about these boxers and Matchroom can help. 

Golden Boy may also be running a little too lean. Too many fighters have complained about their treatment or communication issues with the company. With additional corporate resources to play with, some strategic new hires can be made to create more stability within the organization. 

For this deal to work, all parties (Matchroom, Golden Boy and DAZN) will have to swallow some bitter medicine. Hearn will have to realize that despite his considerable promotional skills, more is needed to build a sustainable boxing organization in America. The guys at Golden Boy know talent and they can provide the fighters needed to make Matchroom USA a success for many years to come. For Golden Boy, they need to acknowledge that they're never going to have long-term sustainability as long as they are a junior partner. Golden Boy's expertise isn't running a finely-oiled machine. They have had too many peaks and valleys throughout their history. If they want their instability to end, Matchroom USA could be a great way to achieve that goal. 

DAZN also has to utilize Hearn and Golden Boy more strategically. Together they could make for a winning entity. But the current model is a half measure. Hearn hasn't been able to sign enough of the fighters that he needs and Golden Boy can't necessarily capitalize on many of the talented ones that are part of their organization. They both bring different skills to the table and an entity that reflects that would be far stronger than the status quo.

I have no doubt that a merger/buyout has already been discussed. It makes too much sense for all parties for it not to have been broached by now. But, like all deals, it's about terms. What should be done with De la Hoya? Clearly, he has a lot of value, but he's too unreliable to be at the top. Would he accept a board position? Could there be a non-executive (but lucrative) role that doesn't embarrass him and acknowledges his importance? What might that be? What to do with Roberto Diaz? Should he be bumped up to head matchmaker for the entire Matchroom operations? And would Hearn be deployed best as the head of the Matchroom USA/Golden Boy entity or are there other more strategic priorities for him around the globe. Maybe he becomes President of the Board and they hire a new CEO who will be solely focused on the American market.  

These are fascinating scenarios to contemplate. But however it could wind up, there's a strong business case for it to happen. The move will create a much stronger entity in the U.S., one with deep pockets and expertise in the market. It can sell young fighters not just on the promotional savvy of Hearn and the business opportunities presented by DAZN, but the developmental talent of Roberto Diaz, Eric Gomez and crew. Fighters will know that they will be seen, but more importantly, that they will be developed properly. 

Of course, this is boxing, where the smart move isn't always the one that is made. I hope that the parties can come together and explore a merger in good faith. Maybe it happens and maybe it doesn't, but it's worth looking into. I think that DAZN, Matchroom and the principals at Golden Boy can all emerge on stronger footing with a deal.  

Adam Abramowitz is the founder and head writer of saturdaynightboxing.com. He's a member of Ring Magazine's Ring Ratings Panel and a Board Member for the Transnational Boxing Rankings Board. 

Email: saturdaynightboxing@hotmail.com.

snboxing on twitter. SN Boxing on Facebook. 

Punch 2 the Face Podcast

In this week's Punch 2 the Face Podcast, Brandon and I dove into Charlo-Castano and its entertaining undercard. We previewed Joyce-Takam, ShoBox and gave our early thoughts on Joshua-Usyk and Canelo-Plant. To listen to the podcast, click on the links below: 

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Adam Abramowitz is the founder and head writer of saturdaynightboxing.com. He's a member of Ring Magazine's Ring Ratings Panel and a Board Member for the Transnational Boxing Rankings Board. 

Email: saturdaynightboxing@hotmail.com.

snboxing on twitter. SN Boxing on Facebook. 

Opinions and Observations: Charlo-Castano

The air of illegitimacy has plagued professional boxing since its inception. Corrupt or incompetent officials, fighters frozen out of opportunities, bribery, money laundering, thrown fights, unscrupulous promoters and managers, biases toward popular fighters or champions, there's been a litany of reasons for well over a century as to why boxing has been referred to as sport's "red-light district."

So, after Saturday's 154-lb. undisputed title fight between Jermell Charlo and Brian Castano, where Nelson Vazquez turned in a ludicrous 117-111 scorecard in favor of Charlo (the fight was ruled a draw), boxing again faces a consistent and familiar thorn in its side. Too many boxing judges fail the smell test, and their unprofessionalism (let's use that euphemism) ruins the legitimacy of the contest. Instead of celebrating the combatants and their performances, Vazquez and his ilk offer reminders that the sport's unseemly side is alive and kicking. And we have watched this movie too many times. 

Rarely do these officials face consequences. Commissions and sanctioning bodies are reluctant to take out the garbage, partly because then they would have to take themselves out as well. The powers that be in the sport would prefer for these controversies to flame themselves out. Hey, the next big fight is only a week or two away. The regulators in the sport, and I use "regulator" loosely, count on the short memory of boxing fans and the industry as a whole. They don't want to interfere with their respective patronage systems within the sport unless they absolutely have to. And let's face it, robbing Floyd Mayweather is a problem; robbing Brian Castano is a regular Saturday night. 

Charlo (left) landing his counter left hook
Photo courtesy of Amanda Westcott/Showtime

Castano entered Saturday's fight as a titlist, but he owned only one of the four belts compared to Charlo's three. He's from Argentina, doesn't have a huge fanbase and even though he is represented by the PBC, it isn't like they have invested much sweat equity in him. They let him win his title on another promoter's show with few eyeballs watching and have never minded if he wanted to fight in Europe, even though the company doesn't have a footprint there. Charlo was fighting in his home state of Texas. The crowd was there for him. He had been one of the emerging faces of boxing over the last few years. Charlo was the money side of the fight. It certainly was better for "boxing" if Charlo won. As I said, we have all seen this movie before. 

At worst Castano won five rounds of the fight and it's more likely that he won eight of them than five. Except for the clear Charlo rounds, in my opinion 2, 10, 11, and 12, Castano was consistently out-throwing and out-landing Charlo. And he wasn't scoring with pitty-pat jabs. Almost all his shots were power punches. But it goes well beyond punch counting. Let's take ring generalship and effective aggression. Castano was the one coming forward, cornering Charlo along the ropes and fighting in his preferred style. He was the one dictating the terms of the fight throughout the majority of the action. He was clearly the better fighter in the majority of rounds using those two scoring criteria (in addition to clean, effective punching). 

Castano should have won via a competitive decision, but I wouldn't characterize his performance as dominant. He got hurt badly in the second and tenth rounds, both from counter left hooks. In the tenth round especially, he spent much of it in survival mode. To his credit, he showed a veteran's ability to buy time, but he wasn't trying to steal the round back. He needed all of his energy to stay on his feet. 

Overall, it was a disappointing performance from Charlo. His trainer, Derrick James, implored him throughout the bout to take the fight to the center of the ring, but Charlo would only intermittently listen to that advice. Instead, he hoped that the magic of the Tony Harrison rematch and the Jeison Rosario fight would return. In both of those matches, his power punching at close range led to knockdowns and eventual stoppages. After hurting Castano with a counter left hook against the ropes in second round, he kept looking for that shot, even as he gave up many rounds to Castano's pressure, volume and refined inside fighting skills. 

Charlo fought Saturday's match like a gunfighter who only had two bullets in his six-shooter. He seemed only comfortable throwing jabs and counter left hooks to the head. Where was his uppercut (left or right), where was the body punching, where were his lead right hands and where were the hooks downstairs? After Charlo had Castano hurt, he unfurled several right hands, but except for those moments, he was left-hand dominant. 

Castano deserves credit for Charlo's holstered weapons. By not falling into repeated attacking patterns, Charlo couldn't consistently land the types of hard counters he wanted. And Castano kept Charlo thinking all night. He'd come in behind wide left hooks, tighter hooks, looping right hands, throwaway jabs, straight rights, and from all sorts of punching angles. Despite working in close quarters, he didn't smother his work or lean over his front foot too much, which would have given Charlo easier countering opportunities. He knew how to operate in tight spaces and he was clearly superior when the fight was in that geography. 

Castano getting some work done inside
Photo courtesy of Amanda Westcott/Showtime

Let's remember that Jermell Charlo started his career as one of the best jabbers in the sport. Many of his early victories under then-trainer Ronnie Shields were won with his jab and legs. He was more comfortable leading than countering and he dominated the center of the ring. 

Under Derrick James, Charlo has morphed into a counterpunching knockout artist. He's gifted at it, but some of his old skills under Shields would have come in handy against Castano. Charlo didn't have to go to the ropes as much as he did, but he was convinced that his power would rule the day. Even after being told to go back to the center, he would make only half-hearted attempts to do so. It's almost as if he had lost confidence in his ability to box his way to a victory. 

I enjoyed Saturday's fight. Both fighters showed why they have been successful professionals. But there are two issues that disturb me upon reflection. Most obviously, Vazquez's scorecard prohibited Castano from getting a fair hearing in the fight. And that's an awful feeling in watching a sport that's supposedly on the up-and-up. In addition, I don't think that was Jermell Charlo at his best. Yes, Castano deserves his share of credit for this, but Charlo helped beat himself to a degree. His trainer was giving him the right advice. He had the tools to make it an easier fight than it was, but he just wanted to do it his way. 

I hope that Saturday's fight will spur Charlo to do some reflection. Fighters pay their cornermen to guide them through rough moments. James' advice was sound and within Charlo's capabilities. But Charlo decided to freelance. Yes, he came back into the fight, but it didn't have to get to that point. 

Jermell needs to remember that he can't knock out everyone in the sport and that he has far more weapons than he showed on Saturday. If he can look at himself in the mirror honestly, he will know that he has much more to offer. He was once a boxer, a damn good one too, and while knockouts are sexy and fun, they are only part of what is required at the highest level of the sport. His coach knew that, but it's not a lesson that Charlo was ready to accept, at least not yet. 

Adam Abramowitz is the founder and head writer of saturdaynightboxing.com. He's a member of Ring Magazine's Ring Ratings Panel and a Board Member for the Transnational Boxing Rankings Board. 

Email: saturdaynightboxing@hotmail.com.

snboxing on twitter. SN Boxing on Facebook.     

Opinions and Observations: Davis-Barrios

Between the ninth and tenth rounds of Gervonta "Tank" Davis' fight with Mario Barrios, Floyd Mayweather, Tank's promoter and mentor, came over to the corner and told Davis that Showtime's unofficial scorer had him behind in the fight. Davis at first was incredulous, believing that he was ahead. But Floyd was insistent. Mixing in tough love with genuine affection, Floyd cajoled his fighter and told him how he needed to assert himself throughout the rest of the fight. 

Tank left the corner determined and engaged in a vicious back-and-forth with Barrios in the tenth. In a fantastic exchange, Barrios landed a left hook to the body and a left uppercut. Tank then followed with a blistering straight left hand. Both were landing thudding power shots. And even though Tank had dropped Barrios twice in the eighth round, Barrios was still giving everything he had offensively. The tenth was one of the better rounds of boxing I've seen this year; it was gripping stuff to watch. 

After the tenth, Mayweather again came to Davis' corner. Floyd told him that he had a good round, but he had to press Barrios. And boy did Davis respond. Although Davis has always been economical with his punches in his career, in the eleventh he went after Barrios like a house on fire. He cracked him with a beautiful left uppercut to the body for his third knockdown in the fight. Barrios beat the count, but then Davis connected with a menacing straight left hand that forced Barrios to stumble awkwardly into the ropes, causing referee Thomas Taylor to wave the fight off. Overall, it was one of Davis' more dramatic victories in his career. 

Davis (left) after scoring his third knockdown
Photo courtesy of Amanda Westcott

In the post-fight interview Davis stated his belief that he had made the fight harder for himself than it needed to be. When pressed for an explanation, he admitted that he was concerned about Barrios' power at 140 lbs. and if he could take Barrios' best shots. All of that was refreshingly candid. 

However, it wasn't just Barrios’ power that caused Davis to be reluctant to throw in the early rounds. Overall, Barrios fought intelligently, specifically by limiting Davis' countering opportunities. Barrios had been well prepared by his trainer Virgil Hunter. Almost to a fault, Barrios kept his distance whenever possible, utilizing his reach advantage to cut down the number of exchanges. He didn't get greedy. He only threw one or two punches at a time. When Davis did hang along the ropes, Barrios was keen not to fall for any traps. He kept his distance and composure and refused to be overexuberant or rush in with punches that could be easily countered. 

Davis can be a fantastic counterpuncher, but Barrios' game plan forced Tank to create his own openings. Tank hit pay dirt in the eighth when he connected with a beautiful lead right hook that dropped Barrios. It isn't just that he landed the shot on the button, but he sold a feint before throwing. Barrios believed that Davis' left hand was coming, but instead Davis whipped his right hand around the guard and caught Barrios perfectly flush. 

Later in the round Davis landed an overhand left that knocked down Barrios for a second time. The shot had a little loop to it and it illustrated another one of Davis' considerable talents: he's a fantastic improvisor. He saw the opening and landed a shot that he hadn't thrown to that point in the fight. 

The Barrios fight answered several questions about Davis in the ring. Davis has had problems with his gas tank and conditioning at points in his career, but watching the tenth and eleventh rounds, those were among him most impressive showings in the fight. He had more than enough to give in the championship rounds. 

In addition, he showed he could take a real punch at 140 pounds. Barrios certainly didn't unload on Davis throughout the fight, but he landed his fair share of power shots to the head and body; Davis was unmoved. And while Barrios connected with a number of impressive punches, his success was sporadic, in part because Davis' defense was much sharper than advertised. 

Davis and Mayweather after the victory
Photo courtesy of Amanda Westcott

I was also impressed with Davis' hand speed. It's not just that Davis has impressive power, but he gets his shots home fast. It's his combination of power, speed and accuracy that really troubles opponents. Yes, his power is among the best in the sport, but he can routinely beat opponents to the punch.

Finally, one has to credit Davis for being coachable. His trainer, Calvin Ford, kept telling him to go to Barrios' jab side (his left) and Davis' first knockout came directly from that piece of instruction. And when Mayweather came to Davis late in the fight, Tank listened to what his mentor had to say and took his words to heart. Perhaps even more importantly, he responded affirmatively. 

The Mayweather-Davis dynamic has been an interesting one. Filled with love and momentary periods of frustration over the years, the Barrios fight showed the level of respect and trust between them. It hasn't always been smooth sailing for the pair, but on Saturday in their own way each of them performed to the best of his abilities. 

Perhaps Saturday's fight wasn't Tank's cleanest performance. It wasn't one-way traffic. But honestly, we've seen enough of those fights. In Barrios he was facing a solid fighter in a higher weight class. Tank was presented with a series of challenges that he had never faced before: a much bigger man, and an opponent who had a winning game plan. Tank solved these problems and solved them with aplomb. From my perspective it was his most well-rounded performance of his career. He was in a real fight and his opponent wasn't making it easy for him. Tank had to make his own luck: and he did just that.  

Adam Abramowitz is the founder and head writer of saturdaynightboxing.com. He's a member of Ring Magazine's Ring Ratings Panel and a Board Member for the Transnational Boxing Rankings Board. 

Email: saturdaynightboxing@hotmail.com.

snboxing on twitter. SN Boxing on Facebook. 

Previews: Davis-Barrios, Lubin-Rosario

Gervonta "Tank" Davis and Mario Barrios headline an intriguing boxing pay per view card on Saturday in Atlanta. The card also features an excellent junior middleweight clash between Erickson Lubin and Jeison Rosario. In both of these matchups the favorites (Davis, Lubin) and the underdogs (Barrios, Rosario) have considerable advantages; these fights could play out in a number of different ways. 

Davis (24-0, 23 KOs) will be moving up to junior welterweight to face Barrios (26-0, 17 KOs). Tank most recently had a knockout of the year contender in defeating Leo Santa Cruz, which took place at 130 lbs. Barrios also appeared on that card and stopped Ryan Karl in the sixth round. 

Davis (left) and Barrios at the pre-fight press conference
Photo courtesy of Amanda Westcott

Before breaking anything down technically for this matchup, Barrios will have four-inch advantages in height and reach and he also has been a junior welterweight for over four years. Davis has been a destructive puncher throughout his career, but all of his fights have taken place at lightweight and below. 

As a prospect, Barrios was a tough fighter for me to get a handle on. He was one of those young fighters who seemed to do a lot of things well, but didn't have any exceptional attributes. He had good power, but nothing spectacular. He had a solid boxing foundation, but he could be hit. He had athleticism, but didn't feature blazing hand or foot speed. 

The toughest test of his professional career was his 2019 fight against Batyr Akhmedov (who fights on Saturday's undercard). Despite scoring two knockdowns in that fight, I think that Barrios was fortunate to win the decision. Through large stretches of the fight Akhmedov outboxed Barrios, beat him to the punch and flummoxed him in the ring. 

The Akhmedov fight demonstrated that Barrios had a couple of defensive holes. Akhmedov punched with Barrios and had a lot of success. Barrios' punches can be long and he doesn't return his hands to a defensibly responsible position quickly enough. In addition, there was a significant gap in his hand positioning, leaving ample space to connect with shots between his guard. 

Barrios took some big punches in that fight, but a point in his favor is how he rallied in the 12th round to score a knockdown. That showed a ton of character and self-belief. It was a messy and brutal fight, but Barrios never stopped trying and was able to handle a level of duress to turn the tide at the end of the match. 

Gervonta Davis has only had to go the distance once in his career and that was a six-round fight back in 2014. Only four of his bouts have even made it to the seventh round. He's tremendously poised on the inside and positions himself expertly to land his power punches from the southpaw position. In my estimation he has four excellent knockout weapons: his left uppercut, his right hook to the body, his right hook to the head and his straight left to the body. He's a brutal body puncher and places his shots surgically. Almost every punch of his is hard and thrown with knockout intentions. 

Davis, like all fighters, has some flaws. He's not a high-volume guy. His gas tank can ebb and flow and he can't do a ton from the outside. In terms of the geography of a fight, Davis is well aware of his strengths and weaknesses and he knows that he has to get to mid-range and closer to win. Many fighters have tried to move away from him, but he can cut the ring off pretty well and doesn't need to burn a lot of energy to find opponents, even when they don't want to be found. 

My main concern for Barrios in this matchup is his ring discipline. Despite having an excellent trainer in Virgil Hunter, who preaches defense and responsibility in the ring, Barrios can freelance during fights in ways that aren't always advantageous to him. He can get dragged into exchanges and he can stick around in the pocket for a little too long. Make no mistake; Barrios can't run from Davis all fight. He's going to need to land hard shots and make Davis respect his power, but he has to accomplish this strategically. One or two shots at a time must be the order of the day and anything longer in an exchange will favor Davis. 

Davis needs to worry about not giving up too many early rounds. Barrios could potentially start well, using his reach and length to limit exchanges. It could take a few rounds for Davis to get into his preferred range. But Davis can't count on the knockout here. Although he has excellent power, it's not a given that his power will resonate at 140 lbs. the same way that it has at lower weights. I have no doubt that he can land on Barrios and probably hurt him, but that's not the same thing as getting a stoppage. Davis needs to compete every round. He has to give himself a chance on the cards. 

I'm not making a pick for this fight. For me, there are too many unknowns. Barrios has only had one world-class opponent in my opinion and his performance in that fight was a mixed bag. But it's certainly possible that he's learned a lot from that experience and has improved in the ring. We may not see the same fighter on Saturday who was in the ring against Akhmedov. I also don't know if Davis' power will have the same effect at junior welterweight. Barrios has never been in with a big puncher and I don't know enough about his chin. If he can withstand Davis' power, then this becomes a fascinating fight where Davis will need to find a Plan B. Ultimately, it's an intriguing matchup and one, in my estimation, filled with uncertainty. 

***

Erickson Lubin (23-1, 16 KOs) and Jeison Rosario (20-2-1, 14 KOs) have both been knocked out by Jermell Charlo, but their matchup on Saturday isn't a losers' bracket consolation fight. Both are top-ten boxers at junior middleweight and Saturday's fight will help determine which one will get another crack at winning a title. 

Lubin lost to Charlo in 2017 by first-round knockout in what was his first real step-up fight. Charlo discovered some weaknesses in Lubin's defense and the result was a short night at the office. Subsequently, Lubin would change trainers, switching to Kevin Cunningham, a veteran cornerman who has had success with southpaws such as Cory Spinks and Devon Alexander. In Lubin's comeback fights, he dominated Ishe Smith and turned in a solid performance against Nathaniel Gallimore. In those fights he displayed the type of hand speed and boxing ability that led to him being fast-tracked as a young prospect. 

Lubin (left) and Rosario sizing each other up
Photo courtesy of Amanda Westcott

Lubin's boxing comeback was going swimmingly until his last fight, where he was cracked in the final rounds against Terrell Gausha. Lubin wound up winning a decision, but there were some troubling signs. Gausha has less than a 50% knockout percentage and isn't a noted puncher, but yet he landed a number of overhand and straight rights that damaged Lubin. Lubin needed several rounds to regain his bearings.

In Rosario's last fight, he was dropped three times by Charlo, with a body shot jab in the eighth round ending the bout. That fight was a war and fascinating to watch. Although Charlo scored knockdowns in the first, sixth and eighth rounds, Rosario seemed to win almost every round where he stayed on his feet. He landed enormous power punches, but Charlo had the chin and poise to withstand the incoming fire. Rosario perhaps was the bigger puncher in the fight, but he couldn't take Charlo's shots as well as Charlo took his, and that was the difference. 

Perhaps my biggest concern with Rosario is his overconfidence in his power. Rosario hits hard, make no mistake about it, but he'll stay right in front of an opponent and is often amazed when a counter shot is thrown in return. If a fighter can take Rosario's punch, Rosario is there to be hit.  

Lubin has multiple paths to beat Rosario. Perhaps the first thing he should do is to check to see if Rosario is all there at the outset of the fight. Rosario's loss to Charlo was brutal and it's possible that he still feels the physical effects from that fight. Lubin would be wise to land something hard in the first round, test Rosario's body, and put some real mustard on his shots. And maybe that will be enough. If Rosario gets hurt, press him, and go for the finish. I don't think it would be wise to let Rosario get comfortable in the ring and gain confidence. A quick strike is necessary. 

If Rosario still looks sturdy after the first round or two, Lubin could then transition to his classic boxing skills, where he can let his speed and athleticism take over. That should give him a significant advantage throughout the first half of the fight. 

For Rosario, pacing will be important. He won't be able to outbox Lubin for 12 rounds, and he knows it. Lubin's chin issues are still there and it will really come down to whether Rosario can land the right punch or sequences of punches to get the stoppage. Rosario needs to invest in the body early and focus on making each shot count. In each round he has to take a little something out of Lubin, which will hopefully result in him moving less and taking some of the sting out of his punches. Rosario would also be wise to throw his wide hook and looping right hand, shots that Lubin doesn't see often and may catch him on the way out. 

I don't think this fight goes the distance. Lubin has a real opportunity to blitz Rosario early and it's possible that he could win in the first two or three rounds. However, my pick will be the underdog, Rosario. I don't believe that Lubin's chin is going to hold up against Rosario. He will get cracked with something hard and unlike Gausha, Rosario has the power and the finishing instincts to get the stoppage. If Rosario can survive the first few rounds, I think he can take Lubin out in the second half of the fight. I'll take him by eighth-round knockout. 

Adam Abramowitz is the founder and head writer of saturdaynightboxing.com. He's a member of Ring Magazine's Ring Ratings Panel and a Board Member for the Transnational Boxing Rankings Board. 

Email: saturdaynightboxing@hotmail.com.

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