Monday, December 10, 2012

Boxinghead Battle Update: Dec. 10

I have started a prediction game featuring many of the boxing experts in the United States and a few sprinkled in from around the world. I call it the Boxinghead Battle. Predictions will be tabulated throughout the year for major fights.

The rules are as follows: One point (+1) for correctly picking the winning fighter, minus one point (-1) for selecting the losing fighter and five points (+5) for correctly picking a draw. If someone correctly predicts a no-contest, they win ten points (+10) but no points will be deducted for a fight that is declared a no-contest.

Below you will see the current standings of the Battle. Each expert is identified along with his publication. Some names are prominent boxing figures on Twitter and do not have an official affiliation. There are also other boxing enthusiasts as part of the Battle. Contestants who haven't remained active have been removed. The current leader is Dan Rafael of espn (+10). Matthew Mojica (-5) is the trailer.

Check http://www.saturdaynightboxing.com/ for updates to the Boxinghead Battle. There will be a dedicated page on the upper right hand side of the website.

Update as of December 10th:

Abramowitz, Adam (saturday night boxing) +6
Anjuum, Mohammad 0
Barry, Alex (boxing seed) +7
Boxing 101 -1
Boxing Advocate -1
Boxing Mouth +2
Bivins, Ryan (sweetboxing) +1
Burton, Ryan (boxing lab) -1
Campbell, Brian (espn) +5
Carp, Steve (las vegas review journal) +3
Casillas, J. +1
Christ, Scott (bad left hook) +2
Conner, Patrick (tqbr) +8
Conye, Danny +6
Coppinger, Mike (ring) +4
David, Jose -1
Donovan, Jake (boxing scene) +1
Erdman, Corey (ring) +2
Ferguson, Billy (fighthype) +4
Fischer, Douglass (ring) +8
Fitzsimmons, Lyle (boxing scene) -1
Foley, James (Bad Left Hook) +6
Frauenheim, Norm (15 rounds) +3
Freeburn, Shannon +2
Harrison, Andrew (tqbr) -1
Hernadez, Jorge +1
Hussein, Imran +1
Idec, Keith (boxing scene) +8
Iole, Kevin (yahoo) +1
Jones, Vince Parker +1
Kitchen, Kory (bad left hook) +1
Mannix, Chris (sports illustrated) +1
Maquinana, Ryan (boxing scene) +9
McCarson, Kelsey (the sweet science) -4
Mojica, Matthew -5
Montoya, Gabe (maxboxing) 0
Morilla, Diego +2
Mulcahey, Marty (maxboxing) +7
Mulvaney, Kieran (espn) + 2
Olson, Hans (boxing insider) +5
Ortega, Mark (tqbr) +7
Pawel +5
Poplawski, Ray +2
Punch to the Face +1
Rafael, Dan (espn) +10
Raskin, Eric (grantland) +1
Robinson, Chris (boxing scene) +3
Rodriguez, Alex +2
Rold, Cliff (boxing scene) +7
Rosenthal, Michael (ring) +7
Salazar, Victor (boxing voice Vic) 0
Sandoval, Luis (boxing lab) 0
Santoloquito, Joe (ring) +1
Simon +1
Sledskillz 0
Songalia, Ryan (ring) +4
Starks, Tim (tqbr) +5
Street Fighter 2 -1
Tippy +1
Two Piece Boxing +6
Velin, Bob (USA Today) +6
Warren, Glen +1
Weiler, Matt 0
Wylie, Lee (the sweet science) +5
Zemach, Steve (tqbr) +2


Adam Abramowitz is the head writer and founder of saturdaynightboxing.com.
He is also a member of the Transnational Boxing Rankings Board.
Contact Adam at saturdaynightboxing@hotmail.com
@snboxing on twitter
Follow Saturday Night Boxing on Facebook:

Saturday, December 8, 2012

Pacquiao-Marquez IV: Keys to the Fight


The fourth fight of the epic series between Manny Pacquiao (54-4-2, 38 KOs) and Juan Manuel Marquez (54-6-1, 39 KOs) unfolds on Saturday. With their first three matches in 2004, 2008 and 2011, the two future Hall of Famers meet up for their next installment after a comparatively brief hiatus from each other. Pacquiao enters the fight having been deprived of a clear decision against Tim Bradley earlier this year on account of some incompetent judging. Instead of a rematch with Bradley, Pacquiao decided to go for the bigger money fight against Marquez. To this point, 2012 has essentially been a marking-time year for Marquez. He had a stay-busy fight against Serhiy Fedchenko in April and spent the better part of the year waiting patiently for another crack at his Filipino rival.  

The controversial scoring from last year's Pacquiao win still lingers (the majority of boxing observers thought that Marquez had won) and now the two are ready for battle. For Marquez, this is his chance to finally claim a win against Pacquiao. For Manny, this is his opportunity to reinforce his elite status in the sport and finally prove a definitive supremacy over Marquez. Read below for the keys to the fight. My prediction will be at the end of the article. 

1. So what's new? 

Pacquiao weighed in on Friday at 147, four pounds heavier than he was for last year's fight against Marquez. This is now Pacquiao's eighth fight over the junior welterweight limit of 140. Until this year, in all of these bouts he came in well below the welterweight division limit of 147. (His decision to enter the Bradley fight at 147 made sense in that Bradley was coming up from 140 and had been knocked down at the lower weight.) Similar to the Bradley fight, I'm sure that Pacquiao's decision to come in at 147 was a strategic one to emphasize his power. 

After three fights, it's pretty clear that Pacquiao and Marquez fight each other on equal terms. What saved Pacquiao in the first two bouts of the series (a draw and a win) were the knockdowns. Team Pacquiao is certainly hoping that they can repeat the formula from earlier in the series and get Marquez on the canvas. And while I may not agree with the decision to come in so heavy (more on that later), I certainly understand the strategy behind it.  

For Marquez, he has worked with strength and conditioning coach Angel Hernandez to add muscle. Far removed from the overmatched fighter who was physically dominated by Floyd Mayweather in 2009, Marquez is now an able-bodied welterweight. For this fight, he seems as muscular as he has been in his entire career and it’s clear from this decision that Team Marquez is also thinking about the possibility of getting a stoppage or a knockdown. That's a tall order in that Pacquiao has a spectacular chin and he hasn't legitimately been on the canvas in almost a decade. 

2. The speed bothered Marquez, not the power. 

And here is where I think that Team Pacquiao might be making a miscalculation. When Pacquiao knocked down Marquez three times in the first round in 2004 and once in the third round in 2008, these were not necessarily indications of Pacquiao's superior power, but more accurately, they were reflections of his blinding hand speed. True, the first knockdown in 2004 really shook Marquez up and it affected his balance and composure for the rest of the round. But ask yourself this question: if Marquez couldn't handle Pacquiao's power, why was he the one who was coming on strong in the later rounds of their first two fights? 

It was telling that Marquez was able to stay on his feet during the third fight. Pacquiao, who had knocked Marquez down three times at 125 and once at 130, couldn't put him on the canvas at 143. Pacquiao was able to knock down Shane Mosley and destroy Antonio Margarito, but as a welterweight, he couldn't hurt Marquez. In truth, Pacquiao's speed has declined over the last two years and this factor points to why Marquez was never in danger of getting knocked down in the third fight. Folks, it was the speed, not the power.  

Thus, Pacquiao’s decision to come in at 147 surprises me. I'm sure Team Pacquiao feels that getting at least one knockdown is pivotal. However, they might be misreading what led to their earlier success. The faster that Pacquiao was, the better he fared against Marquez. I'm not sure that the extra four pounds of muscle for Saturday's fight is the answer.  

3. Can Freddie Roach make a key adjustment? 

Throughout the trilogy, Marquez has pasted Pacquiao with counter right hands. In each fight, Marquez was able to get Pacquiao's timing down and use the Filipino's jab and his tendency to fall in against him. Manny's jab is often just a "show" punch; it usually signals a blazing left hand. Marquez realized that when he saw the jab, the left hand was following. Either he directly countered the jab with his right hand or he would step back, wait for Manny to flail with his left and score with a right hand or left hook as Pacquiao was out of position.  

Freddie Roach understands Marquez's countering techniques and by now he probably gives Marquez appropriate credit. Leading into the third fight, Roach famously predicted an early-round knockout. Roach probably thought that Pacquiao's size and power would be too great for Marquez. He expected his fighter to manhandle Marquez with his left hand. Obviously, that didn't happen, and you can make an argument that Marquez's performance in the third fight was his best in the series.  

For Roach, it's time for Plan B. Although Pacquiao featured a good right hook against Miguel Cotto and Antonio Margarito, that weapon stayed in its holster against Marquez last year. Will Roach finally emphasize the lead right hook? In addition, Pacquiao has a good uppercut, although it's rarely used. Will Roach turn to that punch? Will he have Pacquiao double-jab more? Will he encourage Pacquiao to let Marquez lead at points in the fight?
 
Roach and Pacquiao need to incorporate some additional strategic elements to guarantee themselves a win. But will Roach be able to find the winning combination? And if he does, will he be able to convince his fighter to make the necessary adjustments during the fight? Remember, when under duress, Pacquiao often reverts to his most basic boxing fundamentals – the jab and the left hand.  

4. Will anyone hit the canvas? 

Let's face it: both sides know how close each fight has been. Without Marquez hitting the canvas, we might not have even had a second fight, let alone a fourth one. Both boxers understand how one round, one punch, can determine the difference in this matchup. For Pacquiao, getting Marquez on the ground is a way for him to equalize Marquez's superior boxing technique. For Marquez, if he can send Pacquiao to the canvas, that will be one less point that the judges can hold against him. 

Both fighters will be unloading their power shots on Saturday. Pacquiao's jab will be there for show, to get his rhythm down. Marquez may not jab whatsoever. Both want the fight to end within the distance, but in a more likely scenario, the history of this series suggests that whoever can knock the other one down won't lose the fight. 

5. Who are the judges? 

Pacquiao has been helped throughout the trilogy by the Duane Fords and the Glenn Trowbridges of the Nevada judging circuit, a jurisdiction well known for favoring the "aggressor." Marquez was so incensed by the scoring in the third fight that he insisted that the fourth installment take place outside of Las Vegas. He didn't get his wish but on Saturday he'll have a very favorable slate of judges.  

In close rounds Adalaide Byrd is the rare Nevada judge who favors clean punching over all other factors. In addition, her record indicates an independent streak. She has often scored against the "house" fighter. Last week, she turned in a wide 119-109 scorecard for Austin Trout over Miguel Cotto, even though the fight occurred in Cotto's adopted home of Madison Square Garden. She was the one judge who scored in favor of Richard Abril's counter shots over Brandon Rios' mostly ineffective aggression. Again, Rios was the "A-side" in that particular fight. In 2009, she favored Chris John's clean punching over Rocky Juarez's pressure, giving John a wide 119-109 win. Byrd may not be the best judge out there – she can be guilty of picking a trope and staying with it – but her predilections play into Marquez's strengths.  

Steve Weisfeld is a judge from New Jersey who has risen to become one of the top arbiters in the sport. Just in the last two months, he was assigned to Garcia-Morales II, Broner-DeMarco, Cotto-Trout and now Pacquiao-Marquez IV. You'd have to search long and hard for the last bad decision that Weisfeld rendered. (I had to go all the way back to his scoring for Joan Guzman over Ali Funeka in their rematch, and even that one wasn't truly awful.) Weisfeld's cards are consistently excellent and I feel confident in saying that he is a damn good judge who almost always gets it right.  

The third judge is John Keane, probably one of the best British arbiters working today. A familiar name on the international circuit, Keane was the one who scored Ward-Froch the widest (and correctly) for the American. He had Julio Cesar Chavez down prior to his knockout of Andy Lee. Keane thought that George Groves squeaked by British Olympian James DeGale. He was also the one who had Jo Jo Dan beating house fighter Selcuk Aydin in Turkey. If there's a specific bias in Keane's record, I haven't been able to determine it. In addition, he has consistently demonstrated an ability to make the correct call over the crowd-pleasing one.  

Marquez should get a fair shake from this judging panel. If the fight's close, he'll have his chance to finally score a victory over Pacquiao.  

Prediction: 

I think that Marquez found something in the third bout. Instead of trying to get the better of Pacquiao in exchanges, he limited his attack to single counter shots and a few quick combinations. For him, remaining balanced and keeping the appropriate distance were more important than trading – he correctly realized that the longer exchanges went, the better chance Pacquiao had of landing something big.
 
The judges didn't favor Marquez's selective approach in the third fight, but as I stated, Saturday's crew should better reflect the ring action than any of the judging panels from the first three fights. It would certainly help Marquez if he didn't give away the 12th round like he did in the last fight. In addition, Marquez will have to look for opportunistic spots to mix in more combinations. He doesn't have to be much busier than he was last fight, but more activity on the margins will help him win close rounds.  

Because of the fighters' familiarity with each other, I don't see either one pulling away. Pacquiao will start fast and immediately try to test Marquez's chin with his power shots. I also wouldn't be surprised if Pacquiao incorporates more angles into his attack than he did in their last fight. I expect Pacquiao to have a lead after five rounds, although all of these frames will be competitive.   

As the match progresses, Marquez will get his timing down. The accuracy of his hard counters will thwart Pacquiao’s aggression and minimize how often he throws his left hand. In addition, I don't see Pacquiao making any key adjustments to turn the tide of the fight. Marquez, with his clean punching, will pile up just enough rounds to squeak by with a victory, notching his first win in the series.  

Juan Manuel Marquez defeats Manny Pacquiao by a close, unanimous decision, along the lines of 115-113, or seven rounds to five.

Adam Abramowitz is the head writer and founder of saturdaynightboxing.com.
He is also a member of the Transnational Boxing Rankings Board.
Contact Adam at saturdaynightboxing@hotmail.com
@snboxing on twitter
Follow Saturday Night Boxing on Facebook:

Thursday, December 6, 2012

Opinions and Observations: Cotto-Trout


As the Miguel Cotto-Austin Trout fight entered the seventh round, my card was even; the fight was there for the taking. Trout had jumped out to a lead in the bout's first three rounds with crisp, short combinations and solid straight left hands to the body. He used his reach, jab and movement to keep Cotto at a distance. He didn't seem awed by the Madison Square Garden atmosphere. By the end of the third round, Cotto started connecting more frequently and he carried that success into the middle portion of the fight. Using his right hand as a range finder, he pummeled Trout with a number of left hooks to the head. He also scored with some hard straight right hands.

However, much of Cotto's success was a result of a tactical mistake by Trout. Instead of boxing intelligently from rounds four to six, Trout decided to stand in the pocket in hopes of outslugging Cotto. He was going for an early kill, thinking that he could grind down Cotto with his physicality and power shots. It's not that Trout didn't have any success in these frames, but by standing in front of Cotto, he was providing his opponent with a much easier way to land punches.

After being hit by Cotto's power shots for several rounds, in the seventh, Trout went back to boxing. He found some real success by throwing lead right hooks and two and three-punch combinations. One combination I really liked was his right hook/left uppercut/right hook combo. After his combinations, he quickly got out of the pocket and regrouped. It was a winning strategy. Cotto couldn't counter effectively enough to change the terms of the fight and he was unable to track down Trout outside of the pocket. Trout looked spry as the fight reached its later rounds while Cotto's energy started to flag. Trout had success whenever he dictated the action by being first. He also moved very well laterally along the ropes to avoid Cotto's attempts at applying pressure.

Trout easily won the final rounds of the fight with his higher work rate and sharp combinations. Cotto was reduced to trying in vain to land something big. After the final bell, the only drama was whether the final scores would reflect the action that took place in the ring. Cotto had a history of receiving favorable decisions in Madison Square Garden (the Mosley and Clottey fights were both close and went his way). Ultimately, the judges unanimously scored the fight for Trout – 117-111 x 2 and 119-109, a tally that might have been a little too wide. (I also had Trout winning 117-111.)

For Trout, his performance answered several questions. Make no mistake; Cotto landed a number of vicious bombs from the third through the six rounds, specifically with his left hook. Trout was affected by some of these shots but they weren't enough to seriously hurt him or take away his fighting spirit.

In addition, far greater fighters than Trout have been defeated by a hostile atmosphere. When things weren't going well for Trout, it would have been easy for him to let the momentum of the fight and the fervor of the crowd get the best of him. Instead, he settled himself and fought a disciplined second half to secure the victory. That was "gut-check" time for him, and he passed the test with flying colors.

Cotto certainly had his moments in the fight. Even in a number of the rounds that he didn't win, he had several good sequences. It wasn't until the last third of the fight that it started to be something less than competitive. He moved well early in the bout and didn't resemble the plodder that he had been in some of his less spectacular professional showings.

However, I was surprised at how little Cotto attempted to go to the body. In his three fights with trainer Pedro Diaz, Cotto has minimized his left hook to the body, a punch that was once his best weapon. I understand the impetus to limit the punch. Cotto got into bad habits where he loaded up on the shot. He sometimes squared up too much while throwing it and, quite frankly, he got hit too much in return. Diaz has favored a more mobile Cotto who spends less time in the pocket and initiates offense with more versatility. It was a wonderful strategy against Margarito in the rematch but I'm not sure it was the best approach on Saturday.

To beat Trout, Cotto needed to have made it a war. He should have unloaded as much as he could to the body to slow Trout down for the later rounds. Although Cotto did have success in the middle rounds, again, this was more of a function of what Trout didn't do (box) then what Cotto was able to accomplish. In my estimation, the inability to go to the body early and consistently in the fight was a missed opportunity that cost Cotto dearly.

Ultimately, Trout's reach, hand speed and athleticism proved to be too much for Cotto to overcome. However, Cotto didn't embarrass himself in the ring and any talk of him retiring seems entirely premature to me. But Cotto is now in a phase of his career where he has to be matched carefully.

For a next opponent, the same two names make the most sense for both fighters: Saul Alvarez and Cornelius Bundrage (who also has a junior middleweight title). Of course Trout will want to capitalize on the biggest win of his career by going after the brightest star at 154 (Alvarez). On paper, it's a very interesting fight as Trout has the hand speed and athleticism to trouble Alvarez while Canelo's combination punching and accuracy could cause a lot of damage. However, I don't see this fight happening immediately.

Trout may have the boxing pedigree to take on Canelo, but he certainly doesn't bring financial clout to the table. Why would Alvarez want to risk his status in the sport for such a limited financial upside? A Bundrage fight would earn Trout additional legitimacy within the sport and promote the narrative that he is an elite talent (this juror is still undecided on that front). Perhaps with multiple belts and additional exposure on premium cable he would become a more enticing opponent for Alvarez.

Cotto may suit Canelo better than Trout does in that he brings a more robust financial upside. And even though Cotto would enter that fight having lost his last two bouts, Alvarez-Cotto could still be marketable because of Cotto's experience and his punching power. In truth, I don't see Cotto beating Alvarez, but he certainly has a puncher's chance. Alvarez can be hit and he's probably never tasted a hook like Cotto's. (I'm sure if Alvarez had his way he would want to fight Floyd Mayweather next.) 

If Cotto can't make an Alvarez fight, a bout against Bundrage would be palatable because it's a potential winnable matchup. Bundrage has very heavy hands, but he doesn't move them all that often. Cotto would have a chance to box his way to a victory.

Perhaps the lasting image of Cotto-Trout occurred after the first round. The Showtime cameras zoomed in on Cotto as he rested on his stool. His left eye had already started to swell and he breathed heavily like it was the start of the 12th round, and not the 2nd. 

Cotto has vowed to continue his boxing career, but will his body and battle-scarred flesh cooperate?

Adam Abramowitz is the head writer and founder of saturdaynightboxing.com.
He is also a member of the Transnational Boxing Rankings Board.
Contact Adam at saturdaynightboxing@hotmail.com
@snboxing on twitter
Follow Saturday Night Boxing on Facebook:



Saturday, December 1, 2012

Cotto-Trout: Keys to the Fight

Miguel Cotto (37-3, 30 KOs) returns to Madison Square Garden on Saturday to face undefeated junior middleweight titlist Austin Trout (25-0 14 KOs). With a win, Cotto hopes to go big-game hunting in 2013 against Floyd Mayweather, Saul Alvarez or Manny Pacquiao, but will the slick southpaw, Trout, stand in the way? Read below for the keys to the fight. My prediction will be at the end of the article.
 
1. How will Trout respond to a real puncher?
 
Although Trout has a glossy record, his ledger doesn't include notable punchers. Trout certainly hasn't faced anyone as heavy-handed as Cotto is. This is the essential question of the fight. Trout's chin and his reaction to Cotto's left hook to the body will be telling barometers of how the fight will go. At some point, either with a straight right hand or a left hook, Trout will get hit, and hit hard. But will he be able to take these shots? How will his legs hold up? What about his chin? Will he be able to fight through Cotto's power punches or will it make him retreat?
 
Honestly, I don't have a great read on how Trout will handle Cotto's power. If he can pass this test, Cotto may be in for a tough night. If he can't take Cotto's shots, a defeat is all but assured.
 
2. How long until Cotto closes the distance?
 
Trout has solid boxing skills and uses his feet, feints and upper body movement to avoid pressure. However, he's not a runner. He likes to stay in the pocket or just out of range to give himself opportunities for counter shots.
 
Cotto likes to get close to his opponents but Trout will have an advantage in reach and hand speed. For Cotto, it wouldn't behoove him to get down early on the cards. Although Trout's beard is untested, what happens if he can withstand Cotto's best? Cotto needs to plan for a 12-round fight and if he doesn't get untracked until the third or fourth round, he may be in a perilous position on the scorecards, forced to go for a knockout in the fight's last third.
 
3. Can Trout hurt Cotto?
 
In my opinion, if Trout can't land something big, inevitably, Cotto will walk him down with impunity. Trout doesn't have knockout power but he definitely throws power shots, including a good right hook and some solid uppercuts. It will be imperative for Trout to set the tone early in the fight and land something substantial.
 
Cotto is also susceptible to cuts and it would be wise for Trout to target the eyes. If he can't hurt Cotto with one punch, the precision of numerous hard shots will help thwart Cotto's momentum. If Cotto can withstand Trout's power shots and quick combinations, Trout will find himself in a lot of trouble.
 
4. Is Cotto's rejuvenation real?
 
Much was made about Cotto's success against Floyd Mayweather. It's true, Cotto did make Mayweather's nose bleed and had some success along the ropes. Cotto's hand speed looked relatively quick for him and he connected on Floyd with a number of jabs and straight right hands from the outside. However, Cotto only won two or three rounds of the fight, depending on the judge. Yes, he did better than many of Floyd's opponents, but he was never in a serious position to win the fight.
 
Prior to the Mayweather fight, Cotto exacted revenge on Antonio Margarito, which was Cotto's first bout with his current trainer, Pedro Diaz. Against Margarito, Cotto featured a lot of lateral movement and his legs looked better than they had in the recent past. He was far less of a plodder. Under Diaz, Cotto has used his jab more effectively and he has set up shots better. In addition, his conditioning has been very strong.
 
However, it's very possible that Margarito, after his numerous injuries in the Pacquiao fight, was already a shot fighter for the rematch and, just a reminder, Cotto did only win a couple rounds against Mayweather. Perhaps all the talk of a meaningful Cotto rejuvenation is just that: talk.
 
5. The championship rounds.
 
Cotto has closed the show impressively throughout his career. He scored memorable late knockouts against Zab Judah and Ricardo Mayorga and stepped on the gas in the final rounds to earn victories over Joshua Clottey and Shane Mosley. Cotto has proven his ability to rise to the occasion in big fights, (with exceptions against Pacquiao and Mayweather, who are in another class).
 
Trout has fought in hostile terrain before, including bouts in Panama and Mexico. Those experiences will be valuable for him on Saturday because he certainly won't be the crowd favorite in New York City. In the past, Cotto has received favorable treatment from judges in Madison Square Garden – you could make a case that he lost both the Mosley and Clottey fights. It will be up to Trout to close authoritatively. The crowd will be against him and the judges may be more inclined to side with Cotto in close rounds. Trout must win the final rounds decisively. Even if he is ahead early in the fight, no lead is truly safe with Cotto in MSG.
 
Prediction:
 
Trout's biggest fight to this point in his career happened earlier this year against gatekeeper Delvin Rodriguez. Trout did some things in the fight which I really liked and there were other attributes of his performance with which I was less enthralled. On the positive side of the ledger, he controlled distance beautifully with his subtle lateral and upper body movement. Defensively, he was strong; he rarely gave Rodriguez a clear target to hit. As the fight progressed, Rodriguez couldn't find openings and he grew more hesitant. From a ring generalship perspective, Trout controlled the action.
 
However, Trout's accuracy wasn't good against Rodriguez, who was there to be hit. In addition, his offense was methodical and very vanilla when he decided to let his hands go. He refused to take risks and press the action. In short, Trout was good enough to beat Rodriguez but I didn't see signs of greatness.
 
I think that the early rounds of Cotto-Trout will be a feeling-out period, with Trout taking some time to calm his nerves and Cotto finding ways to close the distance. It should be pretty even until the middle rounds, with each frame being fairly close. Trout will land some jabs, short right hooks and left hands and Cotto will connect with a couple of solid right hands and jabs.
 
As the fight progresses, I see Cotto having more success putting his punches together. As he goes to the body more with his left hook, he will find chances to hit Trout with head shots, specifically with short right hands. Eventually, Trout will get hurt. From that point on, it will just be a matter of time until the fight is over. Trout may very possibly be in the lead when the fight is stopped, but I don't think that he hears the final bell.
 
Finally, I want to point out that the above scenario is extremely speculative. So much of Trout's ability to take shots and fight through pain is unknown. It's very possible that Trout's chin and body hold up to Cotto's power. In addition, perhaps Trout fights with an increased urgency as he steps onto the biggest stage of his career. Ultimately, I am siding with the known power  shots of Cotto, but if Trout can affirmatively answer the questions about his chin and fighting spirit, he will certainly have an opportunity to win the fight. 
 
Miguel Cotto defeats Austin Trout by TKO 10.

Adam Abramowitz is the head writer and founder of saturdaynightboxing.com.
He is also a member of the Transnational Boxing Rankings Board.
Contact Adam at saturdaynightboxing@hotmail.com
@snboxing on twitter
Follow Saturday Night Boxing on Facebook:

Thursday, November 29, 2012

Opinions and Observations: Guerrero-Berto, Hatton-Senchenko

Robert Guerrero found one way to neutralize Andre Berto's counter right hand; get so damn close to Berto that he couldn't even throw it. In a surprise to many in the boxing world, Guerrero took the fight to Berto over 12 bracing, vicious rounds to earn a unanimous decision. Although Guerrero was certainly a trendy pick for some going into the fight, the thought was that he would win with his boxing ability, throwing quick combinations from the center of the ring. No one foresaw Guerrero mauling Berto along the ropes for 12 rounds. It turned out to be a winning strategy and one which Guerrero deserves much credit for executing.
 
Clearly, Guerrero and his father and trainer, Ruben, studied Victor Ortiz's fight with Berto, where Ortiz overwhelmed and outslugged Berto over 12 rounds. What they probably saw from that match was a fighter (Berto) who couldn't put enough punches together and had problems being effective at close range.
 
Although Guerrero hadn't demonstrated many examples of top inside fighting throughout his career, he certainly showed that he was a quick study. With his straight left hands and his newfound physicality at welterweight, Guerrero constantly drove Berto back to the ropes. In the first round, he scored a knockdown with a straight left hand. (There was holding and hitting involved. In theory, a ref could have deducted a point or discounted the knockdown.) In the second, Berto went down again on an accumulation of blows.
 
The match was conducted mostly in the trenches. Guerrero constantly moved his hands, connecting with his right hook, straight left hand and left uppercut. Berto was reduced to throwing only uppercuts and chopping right hands. The fight was a foul-filled affair with Guerrero holding and hitting and Berto wrapping up excessively (which included some well-executed headlocks) and throwing rabbit punches. Referee Lou Moret had very little control of the fight.
 
Berto was certainly overwhelmed early but he started to get back into the fight with some picture-perfect right uppercuts and clubbing right hands.
 
As the match progressed, both fighters looked worse for wear. Both of Berto's eyes started to swell shut while Guerrero complained of vision problems from the power punches that he had received. Perhaps the reason that they stuck so close to each other, and along the ropes, was that they couldn't see shots coming, and the ropes helped with possible depth perception/ring awareness issues.
 
The rounds in the fight’s last half followed a similar pattern. Guerrero threw and landed more and was the effective aggressor, while Berto connected with some solid uppercuts and right hands. Ultimately, Berto just wasn't busy enough to win a majority of these rounds.

The action was sustained and fierce throughout the match. After the final bell sounded, the fighters still went after each other. Somehow, a California State Athletic Commission official was able to separate the two before Lou Moret got there (as I said, Moret didn't have a good night).
 
Guerrero swept the cards with identical 116-110 scores, or eight rounds to four, with two points off of Berto's count for the knockdowns. (I also scored it 116-110). It was a career-best victory for Guerrero and he proved to the boxing world that he had the skills, chin and, most importantly, the temperament to take on the best welterweights in the world. It was a special effort from Guerrero and his confidence with his inside fighting and his beard creates new difficulties in how to game plan for his attack.
 
Potentially, there were other ways for Guerrero to defeat Berto, but this one, the most savage and satisfying, left no doubts at the end of the fight. Ultimately, Guerrero's success reflected his supreme belief in his chin and conditioning.
 
But Guerrero did get hit way too often for my liking. True, he did tie up and angle his body to a degree; however, he showed no effort to get out of the way of punches. It was a very dangerous game that he played (and won) but if he fights like this in the future, it will provide opportunities for counterpunchers or volume punchers to land at will.
 
Although Berto took quite a beating, he did perform more ably than he did against Ortiz. On Saturday, he fought hard the entire match and didn't use the final few rounds to merely survive. He threw some great uppercuts and scored well with his cuffing right hands. At points in the bout, he had some sustained success fighting off of the ropes. He also was in excellent condition. Physically or mentally, he could have folded after the first few rounds of the fight, but he persevered to give himself a chance to win.
 
Ultimately, Berto just didn't move his hands enough. He got outthrown 731-411, not even 35 attempted punches a round for Berto, an outright terrible number for a welterweight.
 
To my eyes, Berto has fallen in love with his power. He waits for those perfect moments to land his power shots, convinced that his best punches will turn the tide of his fights. Berto does have a good knockout percentage of 73%, but keep in mind how mediocre some of his early opposition was. Since moving to 12-round fights, he has only stopped 4 of 9 opponents (44%).
 
In addition, Berto's defense has deteriorated. Always looking to land his own shots, he just eats and eats punches. Berto started the fight on Saturday in the Mayweather shell defensive stance. Ultimately, it didn't matter what posture Berto used because he got hit with everything. The move smacked of a gimmick or a sense of panic and doesn't speak well of Berto or his trainer Tony Morgan's confidence in the fighter's defensive fundamentals. In addition, the timing of the change made little sense. Making radical wholesale changes should be done in a tune-up fight, not against a world-class level opponent.
 
It's clear to me that Berto needs a new trainer. Berto doesn’t make adjustments well during fights. At times, I have liked Morgan's instruction between rounds, but his fighter has plateaued. Gone are the days of the consistent jab, the movement, the boxing ability and, frankly, the confidence. Berto looked lost during large stretches of the fight, where he was unprepared for Guerrero's aggression and just didn't know how to get himself off.
 
Berto's new trainer must have a Come to Jesus moment with him, an intervention where he is told that his power won't be enough to win fights at the world-class level. Berto must realize that he has to incorporate additional facets into his ring performances.
 
Berto had an exponential rise as a prospect, touted by HBO and many media members as a future star. He was matched softly and the hype often outstripped his performances. It's true, Berto toughed out two brutal fights against Ortiz and Guerrero, but they were both losses in winnable matchups. To date, in his biggest opportunities he has come up short.
 
After the fight, Guerrero called out Floyd Mayweather and as preposterous as that matchup would have sounded 12 months ago (Guerrero talked about it then, and it was utterly and absolutely preposterous), I certainly would be fine with the fight now. I don't expect Guerrero to win that matchup but he would certainly make for a suitable opponent. With his size and various offensive dimensions, he'll have the ability to make it interesting.
 
Berto conducted his post-fight interview with HBO's Max Kellerman wearing sunglasses. Instead of letting fans in and giving them something personal and endearing, Berto was too cool for the room. He complained about the ref and begrudgingly gave Guerrero credit. Many fighters revel in their post-fight battles; these are moments to connect with fans. But Berto was far more concerned with looking pretty and pretending that he didn't give a shit. His interview encapsulated why he has always had a chilly reception at the box office. It's beneath him to show vulnerability or unbridled emotion. I wanted to shake him and say, "Andre, the fans want to like you!"
 
On the undercard, rising prospect Keith Thurman demolished veteran spoiler Carlos Quintana, scoring a fourth-round knockout and sending the crafty Puerto Rican into retirement. A spectacular left hook to the liver in the first round dropped Quintana and he barely made the count. He spent the rest of the fight trying to buy time and avoid Thurman’s' power.
 
For Quintana, he had some excellent wins in his day, including ones over Paul Williams and Joel Julio, but he was never able to sustain a successful run. He would win a big one and then lose a big one. Then, he would work his way back. Nevertheless, Quintana made the most out of his limited gifts and he can retire knowing that he was once a world champion. Not too shabby.
 
Thurman's power is his calling card. He's 19-0 with 18 knockouts. He has two real weapons of note. His right hand, which is a pulverizing punch, and his left hook – when he landed that punch in first round, the devastation was an eerie reminder of Miguel Cotto’s left hook that dropped Quintana in 2006.
 
Power is the sexiest quality in boxing but Thurman's team, which includes Al Haymon and Golden Boy, must avoid rushing him too fast to get a title shot. Thurman wildly overcommits to his power shots and often gets himself out of position. In addition, when throwing his right hand, he drops his left. He'll also stalk fighters around the ring with both hands only as high as his shoulders. If this sounds like a recipe for getting knocked out, you're right. Thurman and his excellent trainer, Dan Birmingham, still have things to work on in the gym. He's an exciting young fighter, but it will be much more rewarding to see him challenge for a championship belt at the end of 2014 than at the end of 2013.
 
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Ricky Hatton returned to the ring after a three-and-a-half year layoff in front of his adoring home crowd in Manchester. Instead of taking a predictable tune-up fight for his comeback, he chose Vyacheslav Senchenko, a former world titleholder from the Ukraine.
 
Hatton started the fight off fairly well. After a few close rounds, he had some sustained success in the third round with his left hook. In the next few rounds of the fight, he did vintage Hatton things: mauling his opponent, connecting to whatever part of the body was available and backing his opponent up along the ropes. He was moving well and if his accuracy wasn't great, he wasn't embarrassing himself.
 
By the seventh round, he began to fade. Senchenko, who started the fight tentatively, gradually let his hands go with more frequency. He scored with his jab, straight right hand and left hook. He wasn’t dominating but he was getting the better of the action. In the ninth round of the scheduled ten-round affair, he unleashed a wicked left hook to the body and Hatton crumbled to the canvas; he never made it back up.
 
At the time of the stoppage, Hatton was up on all three scorecards (I had Senchenko winning 87-85). Ultimately, Hatton's body betrayed him. The inactivity and years of self-abuse outside of the ring had finally caught up with him.
 
For Senchenko, it was a mixed performance. Although the veteran can certainly handle himself in the ring, his loss earlier this year to Paulie Malignaggi suggests a fighter with some real limitations. Already 35, Senchenko possesses a good jab and a decent arsenal of punches but he doesn't react well to getting hit and he clearly had a problem with Malignaggi's hand speed and Hatton's aggression. Saturday's knockout was an excellent one, but it doesn't portend great things in Senchenko's future. In the minds of the judges, he lost a majority of rounds to a guy that had been out of the ring for 40 months. That doesn't sound like a stock you want to buy.
 
Typical of Hatton, he provided a wonderful post-fight interview after the loss. As opposed to Berto, who had given off the impression that losing the fight to Guerrero was as devastating to him as forgetting to set his DVR, Hatton let the emotions flow. The feelings of regret and disappointment were emblazoned on his face. Hatton wanted the win so badly. The loss hurt him personally. And the feeling that his boxing career would now finally conclude whipsawed him to a level of sheer nakedness. Here was raw vulnerability. There were tears and they were the markings of a man who grasped the awesome connection that a fighter has with his fans. Their pain was his pain and vice-versa. It was an unforgettable moment.
 
For Hatton, who struggled with substance abuse and thoughts of suicide during his initial retirement, his comeback was a chance to reestablish his self-worth and purge destructive forces from his life. That he lost surely will be a tough pill for him to swallow, but hopefully, he will be able to find some semblance of inner peace (he immediately went back into retirement after the loss).
 
Hatton made so many vital contributions to boxing's health and well-being. He helped reestablish British boxing after a lull. He created a legion of fans that perhaps otherwise wouldn’t have gravitated to the sport. He also bridged boxing worlds, taking his fans on road shows in the U.S. and picking up more admirers along the way. He might not have won his biggest fights, but he gave it his all. He was as authentic an athlete as we've had in these times.
 
On the undercard, fast-rising junior featherweight Scott Quigg stopped former title challenger Rendall Munroe in six rounds. Quigg, who is promoted by Hatton's company, put forth his best outing as a professional. Exhibiting poise, great technique and a crunching body assault, Quigg outshone Munroe throughout the entire match. He reminded me of featherweight contender Mikey Garcia. Both fighters are economical with their punches but they unload with great combinations and have real power. Quigg landed a debilitating left hook to the liver in the sixth round for his first knockdown. He followed up later in the round with a right hand that ended things for good.
 
For a young fighter (24), Quigg is very disciplined and has an excellent understanding of what he wants to accomplish in the ring. An obvious matchup for him would be rising attraction Carl Frampton of Northern Ireland. Although the two boxers are in different promotional stables (Frampton is with Matchroom), this potential clash is definitely being pushed by the British media and fight fans. It's an interesting one to consider. Frampton is the flashier offensive talent with quick hands and explosive power. Quigg is more workmanlike, accurate and defensively responsible (although he was dropped earlier this year by Jamie Arthur). Personally, I'd like to see the matchup happen in another year or so, when it would have more importance in the sport and provide better paydays for the fighters. However, if the powers that be deem that this clash needs to happen in early 2013, I know that I'll be watching.

Adam Abramowitz is the head writer and founder of saturdaynightboxing.com.
He is also a member of the Transnational Boxing Rankings Board.
Contact Adam at saturdaynightboxing@hotmail.com
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