Saturday Night Boxing: Canelo-Crawford: Preview and Prediction

The best fighters in the world all believe in their supremacy. Their confidence is what helps drive them to be what they are in the ring. And when fighters jump up multiple weight classes to challenge a top opponent, this scenario illustrates unshakeable self-belief. Who needs weight divisions when a fighter thinks that he possesses greatness?

Or is it deception? And might the deception swing both ways? How does the guy moving up beat the bigger man? Does he have a legitimate game plan? If he's not the more powerful puncher, what can he do to deceive the bigger man? What tricks can he bring to the table, or is he deceiving himself? And does the bigger man perceive the threat? Is he taking the threat seriously? Is he deceived by his own superiority? Does he understand the risks in play?

The showdown between Saul "Canelo" Alvarez (63-2-2, 39 KOs) and Terence Crawford (41-0, 31 KOs) takes place on Saturday at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas. The fight will be contested at 168 lbs., where Canelo is the division's undisputed champion. Crawford, who has only had one fight at 154 lbs., will be moving up two weight classes for the bout. Both are among the top fighters in the sport. Both believe that they have what it takes to win. But when the opening bell rings, who will be the fighter that gets the better of the action and which fighter will be guilty of deceiving himself?

Image courtesy of Sela Promotions

Let's start with a basic question: Is Canelo-Crawford a legitimate fight or are we as boxing fans being deceived? Will Canelo-Crawford be Spence vs. Garcia, where Garcia was completely uncompetitive, or might this matchup contain a bit of magic, such as when Bernard Hopkins moved up two divisions to beat Antonio Tarver?

Canelo-Crawford has divided opinion among boxing fans, not just in terms of who might win, but whether or not the fight should even be taking place. To some observers, Crawford moving up two divisions at age 37 is a bridge too far. Although he had been a champ at 135 lbs. and undisputed at 140 and 147, he struggled to beat Israil Madrimov in his last fight, which was his lone appearance at 154. Whereas Crawford was a pulverizer at welterweight, his power didn't carry the same oomph at 154 lbs. And Canelo has been at 168 for years and has even fought, and scored a knockout, up at 175 lbs. To these observers, this fight is boxing deceiving its fans. It's not a real contest.

Although more than a few might view Canelo-Crawford as a gimmick fight, I don't place myself in this category. I think it's a highly intriguing battle between one of the absolute best fighters in the sport (Crawford) and a long-reigning popular champion who is probably on the backside of his career (Canelo).

But can Crawford avoid winding up on HIS backside during the matchup? Well, that is one of the more important questions in this matchup. But there are others.

It was just two years ago when an undisputed junior middleweight champion (Jermell Charlo) moved up to face Canelo at 168 and despite all the bluster and the belief that Charlo was daring to be great, on fight night, the bout was a dud. Charlo couldn't handle Canelo's power. He was too gun shy to let his hands go and was happy to survive to the final bell. When he felt those first big blows from Canelo, he went into a shell. His confidence left the building in a hurry. Charlo fell victim to his own self-deception.

Well, what will be different for Crawford?

First of all, I think that Crawford has the X-factor of having an almost pathological need to win. I don't see him being happy to pick up a paycheck. We've seen him get hit hard, we've seen him lose early rounds, but he has done whatever it takes to turn a fight in his favor. Even against Madrimov, what saved Crawford in the end was his jab. He couldn't land his power shots consistently to the head, so he just scored with that stick over and over in the fight's closing rounds. Crawford isn't considered a jabber by nature, but when the situation required it, he understood that the jab was what was going to get him to victory.

But that's Crawford. He has always found a way. He has every tool in the toolbox. He can win going forward or backward, southpaw or orthodox, leading or countering. He has a punch for every scenario.

And although Crawford will be the older fighter on Saturday (37 to 35), he probably has far fewer miles on his odometer. Consider that Canelo has gone the 12-round distance 20 times in his career, while Crawford has only fought 12 full rounds just four times, a staggering difference. And it's also clear that the late-model Canelo doesn't let his combinations go like he once did. He's a guy who loads up on single power shots. But even when he does hurt an opponent, he no longer goes for the stoppage with abandon. It's been eight fights since he's had a stoppage (Caleb Plant) but since then, he's knocked down Ryder, Charlo, Munguia and Berlanga, but has been content to go the distance.

This, in my mind is the crucial aspect of Saturday's fight. I have no doubt that Canelo will land something hard; he always does. But he may no longer have the gas or the willingness to get Crawford out of there. Furthermore, you will have to go back past ten fights since Canelo has had a one-shot knockout. In short, I think if Crawford is hurt, he will have an opportunity to survive.

Crawford and Usyk are the two fighters in boxing who I believe make the best adjustments in the ring. But that doesn't always mean that Crawford gets it right from the jump. Crawford has had more than a few fights where he started orthodox and just wasn't up to par defensively, so he turned southpaw. In addition, he's given up rounds early in fights. It can often take him several rounds until he really understands what's working for him in the ring.

Despite Crawford having the athletic advantages in the matchup, I believe that Canelo could make the early statement in the fight. Crawford, despite sparring bigger guys in camp, will not have had the reps taking power punches from a big hitter at 168 with 10 oz. gloves. Canelo will have the element of surprise. In addition, Canelo has more than one big power punch. The left hook is his money shot, but so many forget the overhand right that ended Sergey Kovalev's night. I have no doubt that Canelo's first few connects of the fight will have a real effect.

On Saturday Crawford must minimize damage early in the fight. Canelo's big connects must be few and far between. Crawford also needs to make sure that he's really out-of-reach when backing away; Canelo has surprising range.

But Crawford is going to get hit. Let's not pretend that he will be able to shut Canelo out. Even against Bivol where Canelo clearly lost, he still landed four or five absolute bombs. Crawford's going to have to take those punches. He'll need to think clearly under duress and execute his game plan.

For Canelo, he must change his recent calculus about how to win a fight. Although he has a great understanding of when he has prevailed in a round, that won't be enough for him early in the match. Crawford is a terrific second-half fighter. It's not sufficient for Canelo to win a few 10-9 rounds in the early rounds of the bout based on coming forward and unfurling a couple of huge punches that excite the crowd. No, he must do damage. He must deplete Crawford. He must punish him with head and body shots. Winning a cagey boxing match through six rounds won't cut it. He needs to make Crawford a lesser fighter for the second half of the bout.

While Canelo must try to deplete Crawford, Crawford must fatigue Canelo. He needs to move around enough to frustrate Canelo so that Canelo won't feel comfortable letting his hands go with regularity. He must be the better athlete in the fight and not try to slug it out during the early rounds when Canelo is at his freshest.

I do expect Crawford to become more liberal with incorporating his punch arsenal in the second half of the fight. I also think that he will find opportunistic moments to let combinations go. He will pick up on Canelo not wanting to throw his own combinations. Crawford will have the ability to get in and out more as Canelo tires and waits for one, hard counter.

Ultimately, I like Crawford to peck and claw his way to a victory. I think that his jab, lateral movement, single straight lefts from the southpaw position, and quick-strike combos will be enough to frustrate Canelo and get the better of him on the scorecards. Certainly, Canelo will have the crowd on his side and judges have been kind to him at many moments throughout his career, but I think that Crawford will do enough to get the victory in a competitive fight. I expect Canelo to land some telling punches in the fight, and it wouldn't surprise me if he gets a knockdown, but I believe that Crawford is cagey enough to survive the rough moments. Most importantly, Crawford will be the fresher fighter with more tools at his disposal down the stretch. He will need to keep the fight close early, not get caught with too many big shots, and then use his superior athletic and technical gifts to pull out the victory in the second half.

Terence Crawford defeats Canelo Alvarez 7 rounds to 5, which could be 115-113 or 114-113, depending on if Canelo scores a knockdown.